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Using H2O for Mobile Transaction Forecasting & Anomaly Detection - Capital One
Donald Gennetten
Rahul Gupta
Data Engineer
Data Engineer
Using H2O for Mobile Transaction Forecasting &
Anomaly Detection
Problems are usually identifiable through
elevated failures or volume anomalies
Easy to detect, measure, and alert Hard to detect, measure, and alert
Elevated Failure Rate Low Volume Anomaly
No
AlertAlert

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The presentation topic for this meet-up was covered in two sections without any breaks in-between Section 1: Business Aspects (20 mins) Speaker: Rasmi Mohapatra, Product Owner, Experian https://www.linkedin.com/in/rasmi-m-428b3a46/ Once your data science application is in the production, there are many typical data science operational challenges experienced today - across business domains - we will cover a few challenges with example scenarios Section 2: Tech Aspects (40 mins, slides & demo, Q&A ) Speaker: Santanu Dey, Solution Architect, Iguazio https://www.linkedin.com/in/santanu/ In this part of the talk, we will cover how these operational challenges can be overcome e.g. automating data collection & preparation, making ML models portable & deploying in production, monitoring and scaling, etc. with relevant demos.

data sciencemachine learningmlops
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artificial intelligencemachine learningdata science
Why not set volume alerts?
Unlike failure alerts, volume-based thresholds
vary by event type, hour, minute, day of week,
week of the year, holiday, and much more.
100+ customer event types
x
24 hours/day
x
7 days/week
x
52 weeks/year
Over 873k distinct thresholds to calculate, set
and maintain.
Machine Learning should be used
when:
• You cannot effectively code the solution
• You cannot scale
Solving the problem required going
beyond modeling
Visualize/Alert Pilot
Develop
Platform
ModelingDefine DataIdentify Business Case
Our goal was to deliver Machine Learning for Production Monitoring that:
• Followed Governance Requirements
• Used Available Data Science and Machine Learning Resources
• Leveraged Platform Engineering and Open Source Technology
• Ensured Usability and Scalability
Sparkling Water allowed us to rapidly test
and deploy machine learning
• Sparkling Water combines the fast, scalable ML algorithms of H2O, the H2O Flow UI, Scala, and
Python with the capabilities of Apache Spark
• In-memory processing supports big data environment needs
• Spark + Python + Scala enables a unified coding pipeline
• Grid search options allow for greater efficiency
• Test models
• Optimize hyperparameters
• H2O Flow facilitates ad-hoc experimentation
• REST API is easily integrated into production software
GBM provided greater flexibility and
benefits over traditional methods
• Traditional time series techniques assume stationary data (no trends/seasonality), constant variance
over time
• Univariate time series consists of single, sequential observations over equal time increments
• GBM model accepts external explanatory variables
• # accounts having payment due
• Incidents
• Change orders
• Payment due dates
• GBM also enables data filtering/exclusion (e.g., incident data for training set)

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We developed an open source, cloud-
based platform for rapid delivery
1 Retrieve volumes for training
2 Provide holiday and other static
data
3 Store forecast with
actual volumes
4 Detect & flag anomalies
Amazon S3 Sparkling Water InfluxDB Amazon EC2 Grafana
5 Display volumes, forecast & anomalies
What does it look like?
Monitoring teams are easily able to visually inspect forecasted and actual volumes in real-time
Forecasts are
available for future
dates to aid in capacity
planning
Now
What does anomalous volume look like?
Small changes in expected volume are easy to detect, measure, and alert
~12% of expected
events were missing
after a planned change
to the streaming data
platform
Alerts triggered due to lower than expected volume; Root cause analysis determined a platform
release was casing dropped data and a code roll back was required to resolve the issue
Does it improve incident detection times?
Anomaly detection alerts are sent ahead of escalation and detection times, including when other
alarms aren't triggered
Anomaly detected at
11:15 p.m. when Login
volumes spiked ~20k
higher than expected
Incident response teams were alerted at 11:17 p.m., more than 4 minutes before other incident
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machine learningdata scienceh2o
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Solar events as a predictor?
Variation from predicted login volume was easily quantified during the August 21st solar eclipse;
Interest appears to have been lost within 15 minutes of totality
A
A. 12:06 p.m. EDT
(9:06 a.m. PDT)
the solar eclipse
starts in Salem,
Oregon
B. 2:41 p.m. EDT
(11:41 a.m. PDT)
totality begins in
Columbia, South
Carolina
C. 4:06 p.m. EDT
(1:06 p.m. PDT)
eclipse ends
B C
Variation from forecast

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Using H2O for Mobile Transaction Forecasting & Anomaly Detection - Capital One

  • 2. Donald Gennetten Rahul Gupta Data Engineer Data Engineer
  • 3. Using H2O for Mobile Transaction Forecasting & Anomaly Detection
  • 4. Problems are usually identifiable through elevated failures or volume anomalies Easy to detect, measure, and alert Hard to detect, measure, and alert Elevated Failure Rate Low Volume Anomaly No AlertAlert
  • 5. Why not set volume alerts? Unlike failure alerts, volume-based thresholds vary by event type, hour, minute, day of week, week of the year, holiday, and much more. 100+ customer event types x 24 hours/day x 7 days/week x 52 weeks/year Over 873k distinct thresholds to calculate, set and maintain. Machine Learning should be used when: • You cannot effectively code the solution • You cannot scale
  • 6. Solving the problem required going beyond modeling Visualize/Alert Pilot Develop Platform ModelingDefine DataIdentify Business Case Our goal was to deliver Machine Learning for Production Monitoring that: • Followed Governance Requirements • Used Available Data Science and Machine Learning Resources • Leveraged Platform Engineering and Open Source Technology • Ensured Usability and Scalability
  • 7. Sparkling Water allowed us to rapidly test and deploy machine learning • Sparkling Water combines the fast, scalable ML algorithms of H2O, the H2O Flow UI, Scala, and Python with the capabilities of Apache Spark • In-memory processing supports big data environment needs • Spark + Python + Scala enables a unified coding pipeline • Grid search options allow for greater efficiency • Test models • Optimize hyperparameters • H2O Flow facilitates ad-hoc experimentation • REST API is easily integrated into production software
  • 8. GBM provided greater flexibility and benefits over traditional methods • Traditional time series techniques assume stationary data (no trends/seasonality), constant variance over time • Univariate time series consists of single, sequential observations over equal time increments • GBM model accepts external explanatory variables • # accounts having payment due • Incidents • Change orders • Payment due dates • GBM also enables data filtering/exclusion (e.g., incident data for training set)
  • 9. We developed an open source, cloud- based platform for rapid delivery 1 Retrieve volumes for training 2 Provide holiday and other static data 3 Store forecast with actual volumes 4 Detect & flag anomalies Amazon S3 Sparkling Water InfluxDB Amazon EC2 Grafana 5 Display volumes, forecast & anomalies
  • 10. What does it look like? Monitoring teams are easily able to visually inspect forecasted and actual volumes in real-time Forecasts are available for future dates to aid in capacity planning Now
  • 11. What does anomalous volume look like? Small changes in expected volume are easy to detect, measure, and alert ~12% of expected events were missing after a planned change to the streaming data platform Alerts triggered due to lower than expected volume; Root cause analysis determined a platform release was casing dropped data and a code roll back was required to resolve the issue
  • 12. Does it improve incident detection times? Anomaly detection alerts are sent ahead of escalation and detection times, including when other alarms aren't triggered Anomaly detected at 11:15 p.m. when Login volumes spiked ~20k higher than expected Incident response teams were alerted at 11:17 p.m., more than 4 minutes before other incident alarms
  • 13. Solar events as a predictor? Variation from predicted login volume was easily quantified during the August 21st solar eclipse; Interest appears to have been lost within 15 minutes of totality A A. 12:06 p.m. EDT (9:06 a.m. PDT) the solar eclipse starts in Salem, Oregon B. 2:41 p.m. EDT (11:41 a.m. PDT) totality begins in Columbia, South Carolina C. 4:06 p.m. EDT (1:06 p.m. PDT) eclipse ends B C Variation from forecast