G1 Conclusions
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This document provides a summary and conclusions from a workshop on "Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond". It recaps the workshop which explored tools for thinking differently about the future, used a Delphi process to gather expert opinions, and developed an action brief planning template. It notes limitations in approaches and the importance of acknowledging risks while also learning from past examples. Contact details and additional resources are provided for those interested in further information.
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G1 Conclusions
- 1. Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond G: Conclusions Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. Tony Hirst Senior lecturer at The Open University Contact Details Brian Kelly Tony Hirst Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/ Slides and further information available at http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/ UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut
- 2. G: Conclusions Contents • Recap: Thinking differently Delphi process Risk and opportunities framework Action brief Business case • Other sources of information • Your feedback 2
- 3. G: Conclusions Thinking Differently Some tools and techniques • “What did you notice for the first time?” • Trend analyses (pros and cons) • How did we get here? • The history of the world backwards • “Did you try the library?” • Listening to experts • Asking the audience 3 Slides available which describe these tools Recap
- 4. G: Conclusions Delphi Process Open methodology. Used by: • NMC Horizon reports • Cetis workshops • … 4 Recap Two page summary
- 5. G: Conclusions Risk and Opportunities Framework Remember: • There are risks and opportunities • There are risks in doing nothing (missed opportunities) • There are risks in continuing to use existing technologies (remember mainframe computers, dBase, …) Need to explicitly address risks Approaches described in “Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web”: • Summarise risks • Summary risks of not adopting technology • Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting) risks • Document biases and prejudices • Provide evidence base 5 Recap
- 6. G: Conclusions Action Brief Action brief planning template: Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______ 6 Recap As described on the Hyperlinked Library MOOC: Ideas in the form of action briefs can create a starting point for a new service or plan. Imagine, for example, that you have been placed in charge of a new initiative. You must create a planning document for the team or administrators that will join you on the project. Think of this document as a roadmap for future meetings/actions to get the technology or service implemented.
- 7. G: Conclusions Making the Case Remember need: • To convince managers of reasons for providing resources to investigate new developments • To demonstrate that you have appreciated risks and formulated risk mitigation plans • To be aware of competing areas which are seeking resources 7 Recap
- 8. G: Conclusions Limitations What are the limitations of the approach? • User resistance (e.g. Google Glass) • Trends being ‘spun’ • Vested interests • Perpetuating existing systems • Over-emphasis on technical merits What else? 8
- 9. G: Conclusions Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 9 In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation
- 10. G: Conclusions The Serenity Prayer • The Serenity Prayer 10Serenity Prayer
- 11. G: Conclusions Do it For Yourself (1) Do it for yourself! • Slides for full-day workshop available with Creative Commons licence • Slides also on Slideshare 11 Workshops at ILI 2013 & 2015 conferences: • http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/ • http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/ Time Title 10.00 A: Introduction 10.15 B1: Exploring Emerging Technologies & Technology- related Areas 10.30 B2: What Is The Library? C: Future Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques 11.20 Coffee 11.40 D: Using the NMC Delphi Methodology 12.30 Lunch 14.00 E: Scenario Planning 14:30 F1: Making the Case 15.30 Coffee 16.00 F2: Report back 16.45 G: Review and Conclusions 17.00 Finish
- 12. G: Conclusions Do it For Yourself (2) Do it for yourself! • Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available under a Creative Commons licence 12 Half-day workshops at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences: • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/ • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/ Also abbreviated version for use in plenary talks: • http://ukwebfocus.com/events/jibs-2015/ As described Institutional planning
- 13. G: Conclusions Additional Resources Reports: • Jisc horizon scanning reports • IFLA Trend Reports (for members) 13 c v
- 14. G: Conclusions MOOC for Futurists 14 Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends! https://learn.canvas.net/courses/292
- 15. G: Conclusions The Association of Professional Futurists See http://apf.org/ 15
Editor's Notes
- I’d welcome questions and comments. Note that I’ve published a blog post on which can be used for questions. Thank you.