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“Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Enabled
Services and Applications
in 2021”
Keynote Presentation
NSF Workshop on Applications and Services in 2021
Washington, DC
January 28, 2016
Dr. Larry Smarr
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and
Information Technology
Harry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
The Cyberinfrastructure of 2021
Will Be Radically Different from 2016
• Wired
• Wireless
• Sensors
• Computer Architecture
• Visualization
NSF Has Funded Over 100 Campuses to Build
Local “Big Data” Optical Fiber Freeways 1000x Shared Internet Speed
Red 2012 CC-NIE Awardees
Yellow 2013 CC-NIE Awardees
Green 2014 CC*IIE Awardees
Blue 2015 CC*DNI Awardees
Purple Multiple Time Awardees
Source: NSF
Optical Fibers Linking Big Data Researchers at 10-100Gbps
in U.S., Australia, Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands

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New Services and Applications Needed for Data Scientific Discovery
Square Kilometer Array Large Synoptic Survey Telescope
https://tnc15.terena.org/getfile/1939 www.lsst.org/sites/default/files/documents/DM%20Introduction%20-%20Kantor.pdf
Tracks ~40B Objects,
Creates 10M Alerts/Night
Within 1 Minute of Observing
2x40Gb/s
5G Will Enable a Wide Range of New Wireless Applications and Services
Connecting People and Things
The Jump from Wireless 4G to 5G Will Be Transformative:
ITU’s International Mobile Telecommunication (IMT) System
www.netmanias.com/en/post/blog/7335/5g-kt/key-parameters-for-5g-mobile-communications-itu-r-wp-5d-standardization-status
Massive Changes in Our Ability to Quantify the World
Simultaneously Explosively Decrease in Sensor Cost and Increase of Use
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New Computing Architectures Are Developing Rapidly
From the End of Scaling Which Drove Moore’s Law
Quantu
m Realm
• Nanoelectronic Computing
• Approximate Computing
• Quantum Computing
• Brain-Inspired Computing
Graph source: www.iue.tuwien.ac.at/phd/filipovic/node20.html
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“High Performance Computing Will Evolve
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with Huge Potential in Pattern Recognition,
Streaming Data Analysis,
and Unpredictable New Applications.”
Horst Simon, Deputy Director,
U.S. Department of Energy’s
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Massive Public Private Partnership
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Jan/Feb 2014
Over $100 Million

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Brain-Inspired Processors
Are Accelerating the non-von Neumann Architecture Era
“On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips.
‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.”
Source: Dr. Dharmendra Modha
Founding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group
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Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That
Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer
April 2014
If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon,
It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…
One
Decade
www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png
From One Million to One Billion Users
In Less Than 8 Years!
www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com
DEC 2004
Collaborating in Virtual Reality at 10Gbps
University Research Frontier Today-What About in Five Years?
EVL
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Why Would a Social Network Company
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Using this data, the planetary computer will be able
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An Evolution Toward a Programmable
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Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Enabled Services and Applications in 2021

  • 1. “Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Enabled Services and Applications in 2021” Keynote Presentation NSF Workshop on Applications and Services in 2021 Washington, DC January 28, 2016 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
  • 2. The Cyberinfrastructure of 2021 Will Be Radically Different from 2016 • Wired • Wireless • Sensors • Computer Architecture • Visualization
  • 3. NSF Has Funded Over 100 Campuses to Build Local “Big Data” Optical Fiber Freeways 1000x Shared Internet Speed Red 2012 CC-NIE Awardees Yellow 2013 CC-NIE Awardees Green 2014 CC*IIE Awardees Blue 2015 CC*DNI Awardees Purple Multiple Time Awardees Source: NSF
  • 4. Optical Fibers Linking Big Data Researchers at 10-100Gbps in U.S., Australia, Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands
  • 5. Global Scientific Instruments Will Produce Ultralarge Datasets Continuously: New Services and Applications Needed for Data Scientific Discovery Square Kilometer Array Large Synoptic Survey Telescope https://tnc15.terena.org/getfile/1939 www.lsst.org/sites/default/files/documents/DM%20Introduction%20-%20Kantor.pdf Tracks ~40B Objects, Creates 10M Alerts/Night Within 1 Minute of Observing 2x40Gb/s
  • 6. 5G Will Enable a Wide Range of New Wireless Applications and Services Connecting People and Things
  • 7. The Jump from Wireless 4G to 5G Will Be Transformative: ITU’s International Mobile Telecommunication (IMT) System www.netmanias.com/en/post/blog/7335/5g-kt/key-parameters-for-5g-mobile-communications-itu-r-wp-5d-standardization-status
  • 8. Massive Changes in Our Ability to Quantify the World Simultaneously Explosively Decrease in Sensor Cost and Increase of Use www.genome.gov/images/content/costperMb2015_4.jpg
  • 9. New Computing Architectures Are Developing Rapidly From the End of Scaling Which Drove Moore’s Law Quantu m Realm • Nanoelectronic Computing • Approximate Computing • Quantum Computing • Brain-Inspired Computing Graph source: www.iue.tuwien.ac.at/phd/filipovic/node20.html
  • 10. The Future of Supercomputing “High Performance Computing Will Evolve Towards a Hybrid Model, Integrating Emerging Non-von Neumann Architectures, with Huge Potential in Pattern Recognition, Streaming Data Analysis, and Unpredictable New Applications.” Horst Simon, Deputy Director, U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • 11. Left & Right Brain Computing: Arithmetic vs. Pattern Recognition Adapted from D-Wave
  • 12. Massive Public Private Partnership to Accelerate Brain-Inspired Computers Jan/Feb 2014 Over $100 Million
  • 13. Brain-Inspired Processors Are Accelerating the non-von Neumann Architecture Era “On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips. ‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.” Source: Dr. Dharmendra Modha Founding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group August 8, 2014
  • 14. Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer April 2014
  • 15. If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon, It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade… One Decade www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png From One Million to One Billion Users In Less Than 8 Years! www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com DEC 2004
  • 16. Collaborating in Virtual Reality at 10Gbps University Research Frontier Today-What About in Five Years? EVL Calit2 Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013
  • 17. Why Would a Social Network Company Buy a Consumer Virtual Reality Company?
  • 18. One Year Later… “We're working on VR because I think it's the next major computing and communication platform after phones…” -Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO July 1, 2015
  • 19. Examples of Massive Markets That Are Being Disrupted by a Combination of These Cyberinfrastructure Advances • Quantified Machines Lead to the Industrial Internet • Quantified Cars and Drones Lead to Self-Driving Vehicles • Quantified Houses Lead to the Smart Electric Grid • Quantified Selves Lead to Personalized Preventive Healthcare
  • 20. The Planetary-Scale Computer Fed by a Trillion Sensors Will Drive a Global Industrial Internet www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/frontpagefiles/BSACGrowingMEMS_Markets_%20SEMI.ORG.html Next Decade One Trillion “Within the next 20 years the Industrial Internet will have added to the global economy an additional $15 trillion.” --General Electric www.ge.com/docs/chapters/Industrial_Internet.pdf
  • 21. Realtime Data Mapping Will Transform The Transportation Industry
  • 22. Traffic Control for Drone Air Delivery is Under Development by NASA, Amazon, & Google
  • 23. The Electric Grid Is Becoming More Like the Internet
  • 24. From One to a Trillion Data Points Defining Me in 15 Years: The Exponential Rise in Body Data Weight Blood Variables Human Genome SNPs Microbial Genome Time Series Improving Body Discovering Disease Human Genome
  • 25. I Decided to Track My Internal Biomarkers Just As I Did My External Body One Blood Draw For MeCalit2 64 Megapixel VROOM
  • 26. A New Generation of Human Body Sensors Will Provide Continuous Readouts Startup MC10 Working With UIUC
  • 27. Consumer Internal Self-Tracking Tools Are Growing Rapidly Blood Variable Time Series Stool Variable Time Series Human Genetic Variations Integrated Wellness Human Microbiome
  • 28. The Emergence of P4 Medicine -- Predictive, Preventive, Personalized, Participatory Systems Biology & Systems Medicine Consumer-Driven Social Networks P4 MEDICINE Digital Revolution Big Data How Will the Quantified Consumer Be Integrated into Healthcare Systems? ee Hood, Director ISB
  • 29. A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease and making health care affordable for everyone. ESSAY An Evolution Toward a Programmable Universe By LARRY SMARR Published: December 5, 2011
  • 30. Deep Learning Will Provide Personalized Assistants to Each of Us Where Personalized Coaching is Now Where Personalized Coaching is Going January 10, 2014
  • 31. Is the Release of Google’s of TensorFlow as Transformative as the Release of C? https://exponential.singularityu.org/medicine/big-data-machine-learning-with-jeremy-howard/ From Programming Computers Step by Step To Achieve a Goal To Showing the Computer Some Examples of What You Want It to Achieve and Then Letting the Computer Figure It Out On Its Own --Jeremy Howard, Singularity Univ. 2015
  • 32. AI is Advancing at a Amazing Pace: Deep Learning Algorithms Working on Massive Datasets 1.5 Years! Training on 30M Moves, Then Playing Against Itself
  • 33. Reverse Engineering of the Brain Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
  • 34. Kurzweil’s Theory of Mind: The Human Neocortex is a Self-Organizing Hierarchical System of Pattern Recognizers “There are ~300M Pattern Recognizers in the Human Neocortex.” In the Emerging Synthetic Neocortex, “Why Not a Billion? Or a Trillion?” November 13, 2012
  • 35. The Defining Issue in IT for the Coming Decades May 5, 2015August 25, 2015
  • 36. This Next Decade’s Computing Transition Will Not Be Just About Technology "Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well- argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society If our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking