Todd Hicks

U.S. consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.4% in March. Just 4 months ago, #inflation was cooling and the Fed projected 3 rate cuts for 2024. With new data on #CPI and producer prices, rate cuts will likely be delayed until later this year. I'd expect #costofliving, #interestrates, and housing to be hot topics for some time, especially with upcoming elections. Business leaders, stay sharp and well-informed on this #data.

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Let’s talk Private Equity Secondaries .. “At the moment, secondary transactions provide only about $120 billion in liquidity annually for an industry with over $20 trillion in assets under management globally (this vs. US public equity markets, which turn over more than $200 billion in assets daily). But given the rapidly expanding need for liquidity solutions in private capital, the potential for continued growth is exponential. The challenge: devising the innovative structures needed to capture the opportunity at scale.” This Bain article captures the potential drivers for an exponential growth story for PE Secondaries. Chief amongst these a squeeze on liquidity. We are increasingly engaging with clients looking to further bolster their investment capabilities in this area. Be very interested to share views with market participants. #privateequity #secondaries #privatemarkets https://lnkd.in/epp_Yxm5

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Interested in an update on how to navigate dislocated equity markets in IR? Have a read of the key topics discussed in our event last week, co-hosted with Shore Capital Markets.

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PRIVATE EQUITY IN THE NFL ??? A special committee of NFL owners has been investigating potential changes to team ownership rules to address a shrinking pool of potential buyers amid soaring team valuations. One significant possibility is allowing institutional wealth, such as private equity, to invest in NFL franchises, which is currently prohibited. This could provide liquidity for team owners to pursue projects like stadium renovations and attract more potential minority owners. Discussions and potential votes on these changes are expected at upcoming league meetings. The move would mark a shift from the traditional family-run ownership model, reflecting the increasing financial demands and valuations of NFL teams What are your thoughts on this??? Like, Share, & Comment below! #NFL #PRIVATEEQUITY #PE #SPORTS #FOOTBALL #SELBYJENNINGS Jamie Remp Mary Tran Cameron Cooper, MSM Stephen Money Jaden Damesek Logan Shipley

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We all know the damage that short-term borrowing can cause. Many commercial real-estate companies are now suffering – facing $2 trillion in refinancing at higher rates – because they mimicked the Treasury playbook. Of course, these landlords could do what the owners of San Francisco’s largest hotel, the 1,900-room Hilton Union Square, did: simply walk away from their empty buildings and mail the keys back to the mortgage holder. But the federal government has no such option. It is not like a landlord who can duck statutory and moral obligations, which include sending Social Security checks to senior citizens and providing military personnel with health care and weapons that fire when launched. Instead, taxpayers will have to mop up all the red ink that the federal government has spilled. https://lnkd.in/eQ9X8Cd9

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Interesting read from the Financial Times. The boutique investment banks like PJT Partners, Evercore, Moelis & Company and Houlihan Lokey have seen a 21% jump in Q1 restructuring revenues versus Q1 2023. As a recruiter that's been through several economic cycles, this comment from Ken Moelis stood out. "The M&A pipeline continues to build, but conversion to revenue remains challenging." Relating this quote to hiring, if you want to maximize your firm's ability to capture it's share of the advisory fees from the next M&A waive, the time to hire is now. In particular, firms that don't utilize big, multi-year guarantees to land talent need to start recruiting early and focus on building a meaningful personal bond with their hiring targets. #MergersandAquisitions, #Talent

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After April’s volatility, you won’t want to miss the latest Straight Talk. Join Brad Rutan and Equity Portfolio Manager Nevin Chitkara as they explore: - Current market environment - Importance of downside risk management - Understanding what you own bit.ly/3wkoflS.

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Powell and Yellen understand the trajectory of interest on the debt all too well. The massive issuance (both new debt to cover the deficit and rollover of existing debt) amounts to roughly $10 trillion in 2024. And this isn’t the age of ZIRP anymore, so those trillions are being issued at 4% - 5% or more. And that’s the recipe for disaster which the government has dutifully followed to make the current ticking time bomb. The combination of high interest rates with high debt levels catapulted the annualized cost of servicing the debt to over $1 trillion and it’s about to hit $1.1 trillion. From there, it accelerates even faster. https://lnkd.in/egTrXGMZ

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Should we be viewing the high-interest market through a glass-half-full lens? AllianceBernstein offers a fresh perspective on the potential upsides of the current high-interest private credit market. From their perspective, clarity on rates brings clarity on opportunities, especially as smaller banks recalibrate under new regulations. Check out their article on how strategic investments in private credit can yield significant returns in this high-rate environment here: https://lnkd.in/epErUQik #PrivateCredit #InterestRates #MarketInsights

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“What do you even do (for advisors)?” I had this question from a financial planning advisor. Glidepath does three things: 1. Provide a great portfolio management service 2. Provide amazing and responsive advisor/customer service 3. Be a trusted collaborative partner to financial planning advisors allowing them to: A. Optimize the economics of their practices (keep 100% of their fees, no grid, no flat fees). B. Elevate competitive position (if they aren't IIROC & discretionary already) C. Free up time to focus on marketing, clients or family E. Take compliance off their plate F. Future proof their practice G. Enhance their Mental Health (alleviate pressures downloaded on them by dealerships, regulations etc). Etc…. #outsourcing #financialplanning #wealthadvisors #portfoliomanagement #customerservice

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Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat in early trading. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.261%, just above the open at 4.257%. Today and tomorrow are filled with Fed speaking engagements as market participants continue to look to economic releases for guidance. Key releases this week will be a GDP revision with the latest initial jobless claims Thursday followed by a fresh round of PCE data to be released Friday. We will also see data on house prices with S & P Case Shiller due out Tomorrow as well as new home sales and consumer confidence later this week. Traders are pricing in roughly a 66% chance of a September rate cut, however, the Fed continues to hold steady, waiting for multiple data points around inflation and jobs data before considering a shift in policy. There’s still one rate cut forecasted by the Fed, but they could hold out till year end before using it. Below is a look at S&P Case Shiller ahead of tomorrow's release. Home prices have been on a steady incline since July of last year as rates have increased and inventory remains relatively low. This continues to weigh on affordability for most home buyers. Mortgage rates are under slight upward pressure this morning as treasury yields hover above recent lows.

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🗓 📊 Q1 2024 Performance across asset classes 🚀 Private Equity Insights 🚀 https://lnkd.in/eNFy-dNx Private markets are beginning to shake off the early 2023 slowdown. Yet, with rates staying high for longer, the recovery could face delays. 🌟 Venture Capital Trends 🌟 https://lnkd.in/eR4eCKXP Will 2024 bring an increase in US IPOs as investors crave more liquidity? 💼 Hedge Fund Dynamics 💼 https://lnkd.in/eDYfyBzD 2024 kicks off with a bang for equity-focused hedge funds, while low-correlation funds are less in the limelight. 🔗 Private Debt Outlook 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e39-8QRN Despite ongoing global economic uncertainties affecting fundraising in Q1 2024, there's a notable optimism for private debt. 🏢 Real Estate Developments 🏢 https://lnkd.in/ecz9y8G8 Core real estate makes a strong comeback, though the deals market remains slow. 🌉 Infrastructure Funding 🌉 https://lnkd.in/e5wfqh2t After a dip from late 2023 highs, infrastructure fundraising still shows some momentum in Q1. 🌏 Asia-Pacific Private Capital 🌏 https://lnkd.in/exVVuvgq APAC sees a record-breaking quarter in infrastructure fundraising to start 2024, yet regional uncertainties persist. Thank you, Preqin 💪 #PrivateEquity #InvestmentTrends #MarketRecovery #VentureCapital #IPOs #LiquidityManagement #HedgeFunds #InvestmentStrategies #PrivateDebt #EconomicOutlook #RealEstateInvestment #InfrastructureInvesting #APACMarkets #FinancialSector

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Bond pricing is improved slightly this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.443%, down from the open at 4.496%. Expectations around rate cuts continue to shift with economic releases. Investors are currently expecting less rate cuts in 2024 than previously expected after the latest Fed meeting, however, recent jobs data could suggest that we are beginning to see weakness which could move timelines forward for the Fed if additional data reinforces economic slowdown. On Monday, Fed official Barkin indicated that the central bank still had time to become more confident about inflation easing before cutting rates. The week is filled with Fed speaking engagements which should help reinforce the Fed’s current approach leading into a new round of inflation data next week. Consumer credit will release at 3pm ET today. There are no other economic releases scheduled for today. Mortgage applications demand was fairly strong in early March but faced headwinds through April as treasury yields moved higher. Yields remain relatively high but have inched lower off the highs with the start of May which could help spur on additional demand. Mortgage rates will likely print flat to slightly better this morning all else constant.

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PE News Weekly 📈 📍 Oak Hill Advisors leads $1bn debt package for Vista Equity's $1.25bn Model N acquisition, set to close mid-2024. Other lenders include Brinley Partners, KKR, Morgan Stanley, and New Mountain Capital. The package consists of a $735m loan, a $150m delayed-draw term loan, and an $80m revolving credit facility. Pricing is 5 percentage points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, with leverage at around eight times based on $90m EBITDA. 📍 Blackstone's credit unit plans to sell $450m of loans at a discount to provide liquidity to investors in an older fund. Evercore is assisting in finding a buyer for the loan portfolio, acquired for $2.4bn from NewStar Financial in 2017. The portfolio includes debt from companies like Arriva, American Achievement, BMC Software, and Charter Communications. Blackstone has selected a bid valuing the portfolio at around 60 cents on the dollar, with the transaction pending closure. 📍 Private Equity giant KKR is preparing to propose commitments to the European Union to secure early approval for its €22bn acquisition of Telecom Italia's landline network. These commitments aim to address EU concerns regarding potential price hikes in the wholesale telecoms market. If accepted, the deal could be approved next month, averting a lengthy "phase 2" investigation. The EU may extend its decision deadline by 10 days to mid-June if KKR's commitments are deemed acceptable, although final approval remains uncertain. #privateequity #privateequitynews #rawselection

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Over 240 firms added 450+ strategies to the Nasdaq eVestment platform in 1Q24 for visibility with consultants, intermediaries, and investors. The newly marketed strategies were added by firms domiciled across 30 unique countries spanning from Australia to Singapore to Switzerland, and 28% indicated integration of ESG considerations into their respective investment processes. From a geographic standpoint almost 200 were broadly diversified (i.e. had a global investment focus) in nature, however, in total the newly promoted strategies spanned over 30 different regions across #balanced, #equities, #fixedincome, #hedgefund and #realestate capabilities. Please see the link below for further details… (managers please do contact the Nasdaq eVestment team should you have questions regarding optimizing presence/visibility, opportunities, and relevant trends/insights of those areas where your firm has expertise!).

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The downgrade reflects Kohl's continued EBITDA declines. The declines signal that the company may not be able to successfully execute an operating strategy to profitably defend market share in the secularly challenged department store space. Fitch views flattish revenue and EBITDA in the medium term as Kohl's best-case scenario. The company's recently reduced 2024 guidance suggests a rebased EBITDA of around $1 billion, below the $1.2 billion in Fitch's prior forecast.

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$TSLA - Best day in more than 3 years today, & following an initial Breakaway gap, we saw another Gap on very heavy volume on this China deal - These multiple gaps on volume can be typically a very strong sign- @Marketsurge @IBD I'll be discussing this tomorrow on FlashInsights #IBDPartner https://lnkd.in/eKM89_n2

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Bond pricing is improved in early trading as treasury yields inch lower on little economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury is currently 4.615%, slightly below the open at 4.627%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 10:30am ET this morning with no other economic news on the calendar. Same is true for Monday next week, but GDP and the next round of PCE inflation data are due out later next week. Recent economic data proving stickier inflation and overall strength in the economy has pushed yields higher as the thought of rate cuts dim further. Mortgage rates are now crossing the 7% threshold for some, continuing to put increased pressure on affordability for some. Geopolitical tensions have also increased with Israel now striking back against Iran. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning on the news. Mortgage rates will likely print better this morning all else constant

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