Chuck Cowan’s Post

Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch upward. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.239%, up from the open at 4.198%. Investors are awaiting fresh economic data this week that could continue to shape the Fed’s narrative on rate cuts. This includes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is due out Friday. One interesting note is that market reaction to PCE will be delayed until the following week due to the bond markets being closed for Good Friday. Consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and 4th quarter GDP revision as well as remarks from Fed officials, including Powell are all due out this week. New home sales, which has seen slight improvement in recent months, is due out this morning at 10am ET. Mortgage rates will likely print flat to slightly worse this morning all else constant.

Bond pricing improved this morning as treasury yields remain relatively flat. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.457%, just below the open at 4.488%. Headline and core PPI released this morning, showing an increase of 0.5% in April, which was well above estimates at 0.3% for April. PPI rose 2.2% year over year which was in line with expectations. The market has reacted to the month over month reading but March saw revision lower which ultimately made April stand out relative. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Today at 10am ET. Investors will be tuning in for any additional insight after Today’s inflation print and recent weakness in jobs data. Tomorrow is full of data, with the consumer price index, CPI, retail sales, home builder confidence, and business inventories alongside several Fed speaking engagements. Mortgage rates are under upward pressure this morning all else constant.

3/22/24 Bond pricing improved slightly this morning as treasury yields find new footing after this week's Fed meeting and with little economic news to finish out the week. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.22%, down from the open at 4.27%. Investors were hopeful that the Fed would outline more details on rate cuts on Wednesday, however they held course and reiterated the same comments as before - being dependent on economic data going forward. Inflation data remains at center stage for the Fed's decision - making with jobs data in the background as well. There are no economic releases today but there are three scheduled Fed speaking engagements. GDP and PCE lie ahead next week. #Mortgage #RealEstate

Bond pricing is slightly improved in early trading as treasury yields inch lower on the latest inflation data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.17%, down from the open at 4.202%. Core PPI rose 2% from a year ago, the smallest gain since 2021. Price gains slowed in November as energy costs declined, adding to signs that inflation continues to retreat. Year over year, PPI fell by 0.9% from 1.2% in October. Overall, a lower-than-expected reading as the Fed is scheduled to release its decision on interest rates Today at 2pm. Powell will have his regularly scheduled conference at 2:30pm ET as well. Investors are still hoping for mention of rate cuts as the Fed reviews the latest economic data and opines on its path ahead. Mortgage rates may see slight improvement this morning all else constant.

MCT Daily Market Commentary September 11, 2023 Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady in early trading. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.292%, just above the open at 4.286%. A report came out Sunday that there was consensus in the Fed to keep rates on hold when the central bank meets next week. The market has priced in the chance of the Fed staying put at roughly 93% following the report. Investors are looking ahead this week for fresh inflation data that could continue to shape the Fed’s next moves. The consumer price index is due out Wednesday, followed by the producer price index being released on Thursday. This week’s data could be pivotal, as a series of strong data and higher energy prices in recent weeks have led some to believe that inflationary pressures continue to persist. There are no economic releases scheduled for Today or Tomorrow likely leaving the market in a holding pattern for the next round of inflation data. Mortgage rates should be flat this morning all else constant.

Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch upward. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.541%, up form the open at 4.484%. Investors continue to clammer for clues on Fed policy against little economic news this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Today at 2pm ET on a panel at the IMF. Initial jobless claims released this morning showed a decrease in claims of 3k to 217k claims. Forecast was 215k and previous was 220k. Continuing claims were up to 1.83 million vs 1.82 forecast and the prior print of 1.812 million. More Fed officials will take stage Tomorrow alongside the latest consumer sentiment release. Mortgage rates are under upward pressure this morning all else constant.

Market Commentary 6/28/24- Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields fall on the latest PCE data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.267%, just below the open at 4.288%. PCE came in on top of forecast with the month over month measure at 0% vs the previous reading of 0.3% and forecast of 0%. Year over year showed 2.6% vs 2.7% previous reading and 2.6% forecast. The release continues to build a narrative that we are starting to see a pull back in inflation towards the Fed’s target at 2% and ultimately makes rate cuts more of a reality as we continue to move in the right direction. Other measures like next week’s unemployment report, along with other jobs data, could continue to add momentum to the cause as the Fed anticipates one rate cut later this year. The Fed Chair’s Congressional Testimony is also coming up July 9th and 10th which could shed additional light on the Fed’s approach as we move into the latter part of the year. There are a handful of Fed speaking engagements Today along with Consumer sentiment to be released at 10am ET. Mortgage rates will likely print flat to slightly better this morning all else constant.

FED Meeting: The Federal Reserve decided to leave the Federal Funds Interest rate unchanged today despite inflation coming in at 3.1% in November 2023, down from a high of 9.1% in June of 2022. Their sentiment is to continue to take a wait a see attitude in their quest to bring inflation down to 2.0%. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, did state in his press conference ”…we are at the peak rate of this cycle…” and “its been really good to see the progress we are making…”, “…but we need to see further progress…”. The Fed continues to face increasing pressures to cut interest rates in 2024 and expectations project at least three rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 75 basis points (or three quarters of 1%). Some project the first cut could come somewhere in the March/April timeframe. Mortgage interest rates reacted positively (lower) immediately following the Fed’s announcement and Powell’s press conference.

Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady in early trading. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.292%, just above the open at 4.286%. A report came out Sunday that there was consensus in the Fed to keep rates on hold when the central bank meets next week. The market has priced in the chance of the Fed staying put at roughly 93% following the report. Investors are looking ahead this week for fresh inflation data that could continue to shape the Fed’s next moves. The consumer price index is due out Wednesday, followed by the producer price index being released on Thursday. This week’s data could be pivotal, as a series of strong data and higher energy prices in recent weeks had led some to believe that inflationary pressures continue to persist. There are no economic releases scheduled for Today or Tomorrow likely leaving the market in a holding pattern for the next round of inflation data. Mortgage rates should be flat this morning all else constant.

Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning on no economic releases. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.247, lower than the open of 4.27%. Investors get a break today to digest this week's data which included the latest round of Fed meeting minutes. The economy seems to be sending mixed signals along with Fed officials, but the market seems slightly biased towards the Fed taking a pause at their next meeting. More insight will likely come next week as the Fed goes to their annual Jackson Hole Summit. Powell will be providing comments at the close of the week that could provide a view into the Fed's next moves. Mortgage rates are flat this morning all else constant.