Herb Dew’s Post

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

*FOMC 13th December 2023* Yesterday FOMC decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged for the straight three meetings at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In conjunction FOMC submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 to 2026 and over the longer run. The median projections of GDP Growth rate, Inflation and employment are - 2023 24 25 26 Real GDP 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 Retail Inflation 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 Unemployment 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 Mid point of Federal Fund Rate assessed at 4.50 in 2024 (75 basis point or 3 cuts in 2024), 3.50 in 2025 (100 basis point or 4 cuts in 2025) and 3 cuts in 2026. Long term Fed Rate is projected at 2.5%. Stocks rally on new rate outlook. It appears market is pricing in 1.5 percentage points of cuts in 2024. Caution is required.

Higher for longer FED´s guidance ➡Four months ago, markets predicted six interest rate cuts throughout the year 2024. Rates were expected to close the 2024 between 3.50% and 4.00%. ➡As inflationary risks persist, markets are backing away from the possibility of a first rate cut in July, now considering it likely only in September ➡The forecast for the second interest rate cut will likely occur post-elections, with uncertainty whether it will happen in December or January 2025. ➡Rates are expected to close the year between 4.75% and 5.25%. #rates #FED

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Read more from RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.