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2010 STKI
CURATED COMPUTING




   Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
        Research Fellow
       jimmy@stki.info
2
Curated Computing
Something Curious Is Going On
     A „Developmental Spiral‟




An unexplained physical phenomenon.




                                      © 2007 Accelerating.org

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What do we carry in our pockets ?




                                5
                   5
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer : CES keynote speech 6/1/2010


-"The fact of the matter is, this is not
 a downturn, this is a bit of a reset”-
                                               6
Enterprise computing is headed for “massive changes”

• “We will see radical changes in
  hardware technology this year (2010)
  and SAP is more than prepared to take
  advantage.”
• He cited the following components:
  – super-large in-memory systems
  – parallel computing
  – on-demand software
  – cloud computing
  – mobile phones

                                      7
Emerging Cultural Practices




                              8
                8

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Liquidity: shift from fixed centers of power to
mobility and the consumerization of technology




                                  9
Passage from "solid" to "liquid" modernity

•   Social forms and institutions no longer have enough time to
    solidify and cannot serve as frames of reference and
    virtually no distinctions between what we do to live and what
    we do to work.

•   Individuals have to splice together an unending series of
    short-term projects and episodes.


•   In liquid modernity the individual (under conditions of
    uncertainty) must:
     – be flexible and adaptable
     – be constantly ready and willing to change tactics at short notice
     – abandon commitments and loyalties without regret to pursue
       new opportunities




                                                            10
Enterprise 3.0

• Enterprise 3.0 is about the • Enterprise 2.0 is the use
  radical (liquid) changes      of emergent social
  because of convergence:       software platforms:
   – technology                  – within companies
   – business                    – between companies and
   – management trends             their partners
                                 – between companies and
                                   their customers.




                                       11
Enterprise 3.0:
            BUSINESS AS UNUSUAL
• Bold business is coming back
  – Smart and creative actions
  – Innovative technologies
  – Fresh innovations
• Re‐thinking: will not be
  ”business as usual”.
• A radical and agile mind is
  emerging that will surprise
  the old business guard.

                                    12

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How different are they




≠ consumerization ≠ commoditization ≠
≠ interchangeable ≠ standardization ≠

                     13
Consumerization
            New technology to the
              consumer market
              ahead of business
                  markets.
              1970s > 1990s > 2010s
             Defense>business>home


            Home based IT is more
              capable than that
              provided in their
                workplace ?


             14
Commoditization and Interchangeable
• market based on undifferentiated products
• Commoditization usually leads to lower prices since
  undifferentiated products produce perfect competition
• Some technology products are certainly becoming
  interchangeable but what's really commoditizing?
• Not software, not hardware, not services, ONLY broadband
• False commoditization can create substantial risk when
  premier products (substantial additional value to offer) are
  more expensive .
                         don’t confuse
      INTERCHANGABLE and COMMODITIZATION and then
                       STANDARIZATION

                                            15
The key drivers
•   Faster Broadband at lower costs, and wireless!
•   „Infinite‟ Storage
•   Total Mobility
•   Social Media, Peer Production & Networked
    Communities
•   Blogs and UGC
•   Globalization and Localization
•   Converged devices
•   The explosion of Niche Markets


                                    16

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Virtually free and unlimited:
              bandwidth and storage

• Storage and bandwidth: are
  improving performance and
  cost efficiency even faster than
  processor speed is .



• The marginal cost is falling to
  practically zero.

                                     17
Growth: Digital Agenda
Broadband related growth (innovation)
will be the big differentiator in 2010-2012




                        18
Internet of things:


   SPEED                 SCALE            SENSORS SOFTWARE
Infinite bandwidth     Unprecedented      New kinds of data   Radical change in
and going for real-   processing power                          data analysis
     time data        and storage sizes r




                                                      19
Where do we want to be:




                 20

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             21
ISRAEL 2011



• 1970s basic ERP ( median life is 15/20 years)
   – Today we are in the third generation wave of change



• 1980s core applications (median life is 30/35 years)
   – Today we are in the second generation wave of change



                                            22
Did I say “core” ?
• What is core in my business/industry ?

• What parts of core software gives me competitive
  advantage?

• What parts of core software can I buy and what
  develop?

• Are Israeli vendors prepared for CORE projects?
   – Noncompetition clauses ?

                                       23
The BIG problem : complexity




                    24

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And don’t forget ……..




                25
The solution




               26
Meaning ?




            27
Economist:
       In praise of techno-austerity
• Technologists are waking up to the
  benefits of minimalism:
  – feature fatigue among consumers who simply
    want things to work
  – strong demand from less affluent consumers
    (divisions,SMBs and developing countries)




                                28

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2009: one of the worst years in history




                                          29
                           29
Symptoms of IT complexity
• Software crashes due to         • Incompatibility between
  incompatibility of data, files,   vendor software packages
  software, or network protocols.   due to lack of standards.
                                  • Frequent but necessary
• Long timeframes to solve the      software upgrades resulting
  problems causing software         in errors and incompatibility
  crashes.                          problems.

• Long timeframes to test and
  install new applications because
  of integration problems.



                                             30
IT complexity tax
  Moore’s sayings:                  IT complexity tax:
• Moore's Law : states that        • CIO’s pay with time, sweat and
  computing capability                 money for every innovation,
  increases 1 percent per              every business process
  week.                                improvement they implement.
• Moore's Flaw : keeping up
  with this flood tide of
  innovation quickly becomes
  too difficult (and too costly)
  for anyone to manage.




                                              31
Results of a good “curation”
                            Cost of
                           Operations
                   +
                   -


Risk of                                 Quality of
Failure                                  Service




                          32

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Reduce Complexity by Managing




                        33
                             * From SYMANTEC
Data Center Management 2010

                                                            Integrated
                                                           Components

                                                            User Interface
                                                          Launch-in-Context
                                                              Reporting
                                                               Security
                                                             Deployment
                                                                Health




Security   Network   System   Performance                     Storage         Transaction        Mainframe
                                            Application
Events     Events    Events      Events                       Events            Events            Events
                                              Events


                                                                                            34
Economist:
       In praise of techno-austerity
• Technologists are waking up to the
  benefits of minimalism:
  – feature fatigue among consumers who simply
    want things to work
  – strong demand from less affluent consumers
    (divisions,SMBs and developing countries)




                                35
Complexity can be solved by :




SIMPLIFY (commoditization, standardization, virtualization)




            Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
            Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic

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        Internal storage                         Servers


                                New
                             Architecture




Power & cooling                                          ProCurve
                                                        Networking




                           Management software
                                                   37
Computing Platform Lifecycle




                               38
                38
1980 -2010 Platform Lifecycle




                                39
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Industry in a Box Companies




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What’s under the hood: Lego ?

                         Virtual Connect
                            virtualized
                          LAN and SAN
                           connections


 StorageWorks                                      Insight
   EVA SAN                                        Software
(Note: Matrix supports                        Capacity Planning
 any c-Class certified                          Orchestration
   FC SAN target)                             Disaster Recovery


        All-in-One
       Services, plus                      Integrity and
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       pay as you grow                     blade servers
          financing




                                                                  41
What’s under the hood 2




                 42
MEGAtrends: curated computing




      43
A museum curator plans,
displays and catalogs
collection items.

Visitors see only what the
curator wants them to see
and the order of presentation.

Museum visits become vanilla
(same to all) under a certain
curator.

                                 44

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45
5th Generation Of Computing
  1970s      1980s     1990s   Today    2010+
Autocratic Personal:   Web:    SOA:    Curated:
Centralized
Computing
Cloudy in your future




                        47
 From On-Premise to Cloud Platforms

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Cloud also good for CFOs




                  50
51
Only 5-7 years ago

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53
Technology Cycles




              54
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The document discusses the evolution of the Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) role over time. It describes how the OCIO started as an "order taker" for IT in the 1990s (OCIO v1). In the 2000s, the OCIO was established to better align IT with business needs (OCIO v2). Later, business relationship managers (BRMs) were introduced to improve customer experience but acted as bottlenecks (2017-2022). The document argues for a product-led organization where product teams are empowered and the OCIO acts as an enabler by providing resources and skills to product managers based on product success metrics.

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                                             65
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This document provides an overview of the 2022 STKI IT Knowledge Integrators summit. It discusses how global events have impacted the previously optimistic outlook for IT budgets in 2022, noting issues like rising inflation, economic recession, war in Ukraine, and layoffs in the tech sector. However, it predicts that Israeli IT budgets will still rise 12-13% in 2022. It also covers STKI's services, research methodology, vendor positioning approach, and includes data about Israel's population, mobile/internet usage, and 5G penetration.

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• Mobile
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                               Do not remove source or attribution from any graphic or portion of graphic   77
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Mobile website also changing
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Or one for each machine?
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“one-size-fits-all” end-user computing is “out”
            2008                      2011
• Standard desktop          • Standard desktop
  configuration with          configuration
  Microsoft OS and office   • Tablets/smartphones
  productivity tools          configured for Web-based
                              applications
                            • Desktop or application
                              virtualization on thin-client
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                            • Tablet/ smartphone
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                            • SaaS alternatives to hosted
                              applications
                                      97
98
So what happened ?

The user:                      IT:
• Mobility and always          • IT will have to :
  connected allows the            – Supply “content” to this
  “user” to shop for his own        appliances
  set of appliances.              – Receive “content” from this
                                    appliances
                                  – Content will be structured,
• Appliances will have two          unstructured and multimedia
  flavors for content
   – CREATE AND CONSUME
   – CONSUME

                                          99
New Desktop (1 out of 5)
Google World Facebook World Apple World            MS World
  Search          People               Apps        Content
 in the middle   in the middle     in the middle   in the middle




                           Palm World
                                 ???
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Active Inference is a veryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
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Not so much to say

The future is here: WEB 3.0
 Digital Marketing Is Here To Stay !!




                           “When I took office, only high
                           energy physicists had ever
                           heard of what is called the
                           World Wide`Web... Now even
                           my cat has it's own page.”
                           - Bill Clinton
                                                   101
                     101
Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic   102
Tribes: a group of people connected to one
  another, connected to a leader, and connected
  to an idea.


Discussion:
• What builds tribes?
• What kills tribes?
• What sustains tribes?

         Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
         Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic   103
Community-oriented idea management

Recommended for you

105
Innovation : WEB 3.0




                106
Enterprise social software is growing…




      blogs                   forums            microblogging




                     video              wikis




social bookmarking           podcasts               photos
                                        107
Tying together enterprise social software



                      Blogs
          Book                         Forums
          marks




  Wikis                                         Micro
                  New “family”                  blogs

                   of products

          Video                          Pod
                                        casts
                      Photos


                                 108

Recommended for you

WEB 3.0




    http://www.flickr.com/photos/ross/3055802287/


                      109
Study by Prof. Granovetter shows that weak
             links are better than strong
• Strong Links: More
  motivation to help you,
  since they know you
  better
•Weak Links : Likely less
overlap with leads you
can easily get elsewhere

Most job referrals come
through those who we
 see rarely: old school
  friends, former co-
      workers, etc.
            Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
            Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic
                                                                                        110
What do I use ????
• No longer need a                                                              • Blogs:
  memory                                                                                • IT related
  –   Google                                                                            • Economics
  –   Yahoo                                                                     • Musical taste:
  –   Wikipedia                                                                         – ITunes
  –   Twitter                                                                   • Books and others:
                                                                                        – Amazon
• Personal Information                                                          • Social Capital
  – Smartphone tells me                                                                 – LinkedIn
    about birthdays, phones,                                                                  – groups
    addresses
                                                                                        – Xing
                                                                                        – Facebook
            Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
            Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic                    111
                                                                                        111
What do you use ?


Social
Technographics™
Josh Bernoff, co-
author of Groundswell




               Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI
               Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic   112

Recommended for you

113
Thank you

    Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf


               114

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Curated Computing

  • 1. 2010 STKI CURATED COMPUTING Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf Research Fellow jimmy@stki.info
  • 2. 2
  • 4. Something Curious Is Going On A „Developmental Spiral‟ An unexplained physical phenomenon. © 2007 Accelerating.org
  • 5. What do we carry in our pockets ? 5 5
  • 6. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer : CES keynote speech 6/1/2010 -"The fact of the matter is, this is not a downturn, this is a bit of a reset”- 6
  • 7. Enterprise computing is headed for “massive changes” • “We will see radical changes in hardware technology this year (2010) and SAP is more than prepared to take advantage.” • He cited the following components: – super-large in-memory systems – parallel computing – on-demand software – cloud computing – mobile phones 7
  • 9. Liquidity: shift from fixed centers of power to mobility and the consumerization of technology 9
  • 10. Passage from "solid" to "liquid" modernity • Social forms and institutions no longer have enough time to solidify and cannot serve as frames of reference and virtually no distinctions between what we do to live and what we do to work. • Individuals have to splice together an unending series of short-term projects and episodes. • In liquid modernity the individual (under conditions of uncertainty) must: – be flexible and adaptable – be constantly ready and willing to change tactics at short notice – abandon commitments and loyalties without regret to pursue new opportunities 10
  • 11. Enterprise 3.0 • Enterprise 3.0 is about the • Enterprise 2.0 is the use radical (liquid) changes of emergent social because of convergence: software platforms: – technology – within companies – business – between companies and – management trends their partners – between companies and their customers. 11
  • 12. Enterprise 3.0: BUSINESS AS UNUSUAL • Bold business is coming back – Smart and creative actions – Innovative technologies – Fresh innovations • Re‐thinking: will not be ”business as usual”. • A radical and agile mind is emerging that will surprise the old business guard. 12
  • 13. How different are they ≠ consumerization ≠ commoditization ≠ ≠ interchangeable ≠ standardization ≠ 13
  • 14. Consumerization New technology to the consumer market ahead of business markets. 1970s > 1990s > 2010s Defense>business>home Home based IT is more capable than that provided in their workplace ? 14
  • 15. Commoditization and Interchangeable • market based on undifferentiated products • Commoditization usually leads to lower prices since undifferentiated products produce perfect competition • Some technology products are certainly becoming interchangeable but what's really commoditizing? • Not software, not hardware, not services, ONLY broadband • False commoditization can create substantial risk when premier products (substantial additional value to offer) are more expensive . don’t confuse INTERCHANGABLE and COMMODITIZATION and then STANDARIZATION 15
  • 16. The key drivers • Faster Broadband at lower costs, and wireless! • „Infinite‟ Storage • Total Mobility • Social Media, Peer Production & Networked Communities • Blogs and UGC • Globalization and Localization • Converged devices • The explosion of Niche Markets 16
  • 17. Virtually free and unlimited: bandwidth and storage • Storage and bandwidth: are improving performance and cost efficiency even faster than processor speed is . • The marginal cost is falling to practically zero. 17
  • 18. Growth: Digital Agenda Broadband related growth (innovation) will be the big differentiator in 2010-2012 18
  • 19. Internet of things: SPEED SCALE SENSORS SOFTWARE Infinite bandwidth Unprecedented New kinds of data Radical change in and going for real- processing power data analysis time data and storage sizes r 19
  • 20. Where do we want to be: 20
  • 22. ISRAEL 2011 • 1970s basic ERP ( median life is 15/20 years) – Today we are in the third generation wave of change • 1980s core applications (median life is 30/35 years) – Today we are in the second generation wave of change 22
  • 23. Did I say “core” ? • What is core in my business/industry ? • What parts of core software gives me competitive advantage? • What parts of core software can I buy and what develop? • Are Israeli vendors prepared for CORE projects? – Noncompetition clauses ? 23
  • 24. The BIG problem : complexity 24
  • 25. And don’t forget …….. 25
  • 27. Meaning ? 27
  • 28. Economist: In praise of techno-austerity • Technologists are waking up to the benefits of minimalism: – feature fatigue among consumers who simply want things to work – strong demand from less affluent consumers (divisions,SMBs and developing countries) 28
  • 29. 2009: one of the worst years in history 29 29
  • 30. Symptoms of IT complexity • Software crashes due to • Incompatibility between incompatibility of data, files, vendor software packages software, or network protocols. due to lack of standards. • Frequent but necessary • Long timeframes to solve the software upgrades resulting problems causing software in errors and incompatibility crashes. problems. • Long timeframes to test and install new applications because of integration problems. 30
  • 31. IT complexity tax Moore’s sayings: IT complexity tax: • Moore's Law : states that • CIO’s pay with time, sweat and computing capability money for every innovation, increases 1 percent per every business process week. improvement they implement. • Moore's Flaw : keeping up with this flood tide of innovation quickly becomes too difficult (and too costly) for anyone to manage. 31
  • 32. Results of a good “curation” Cost of Operations + - Risk of Quality of Failure Service 32
  • 33. Reduce Complexity by Managing 33 * From SYMANTEC
  • 34. Data Center Management 2010 Integrated Components User Interface Launch-in-Context Reporting Security Deployment Health Security Network System Performance Storage Transaction Mainframe Application Events Events Events Events Events Events Events Events 34
  • 35. Economist: In praise of techno-austerity • Technologists are waking up to the benefits of minimalism: – feature fatigue among consumers who simply want things to work – strong demand from less affluent consumers (divisions,SMBs and developing countries) 35
  • 36. Complexity can be solved by : SIMPLIFY (commoditization, standardization, virtualization) Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic
  • 37. another cure for complexity Internal storage Servers New Architecture Power & cooling ProCurve Networking Management software 37
  • 39. 1980 -2010 Platform Lifecycle 39 39
  • 40. Industry in a Box Companies 40 40
  • 41. What’s under the hood: Lego ? Virtual Connect virtualized LAN and SAN connections StorageWorks Insight EVA SAN Software (Note: Matrix supports Capacity Planning any c-Class certified Orchestration FC SAN target) Disaster Recovery All-in-One Services, plus Integrity and ProLiant iCAP and ProLiant pay as you grow blade servers financing 41
  • 42. What’s under the hood 2 42
  • 44. A museum curator plans, displays and catalogs collection items. Visitors see only what the curator wants them to see and the order of presentation. Museum visits become vanilla (same to all) under a certain curator. 44
  • 45. 45
  • 46. 5th Generation Of Computing 1970s 1980s 1990s Today 2010+ Autocratic Personal: Web: SOA: Curated: Centralized Computing
  • 47. Cloudy in your future 47
  • 48.  From On-Premise to Cloud Platforms
  • 50. Cloud also good for CFOs 50
  • 51. 51
  • 53. 53
  • 55. 55
  • 56. 56
  • 58. Winners and losers: who now? 15 billion ARM based chips shipped to date 58
  • 59. 59
  • 60. 60
  • 61. If looks could kill 61
  • 62. 62 62
  • 65. iPhone the content revolution The dean of Yale University's School of Management has joined Apple as a new Vice President, serving of the dean of a new "Apple University." 65
  • 66. 66
  • 68. Google into other things? Google Wave Crome OS Nexus 1 Android 68 68
  • 71. 71
  • 72. 72
  • 73. Farmville Game on Facebook • It‟s free but you can buy goods to enhance the experience: – 800.000 tractors „sold‟ every single day • A team of 35 Developers release new virtual items into FarmVille twice a week • 65 Million+ users without any advertising; 1.2 Million users per day • Parent company Zynga makes est. $500M / Year and has 600+ employees 73
  • 74. 74
  • 75. 75
  • 76. 76
  • 77. 3 possible mobile models: • SMS  Easy, common in all devices, affordable • Mobile Internet  Familiar, supported by most devices, UI is an issue • Mobile Application  Rich user experience, ability to work offline Source: Mobile Marketing Association Einat Shimoni’s work Copyright 2010 @STKI Do not remove source or attribution from any graphic or portion of graphic 77
  • 78. 78
  • 79. 79
  • 82. Mobile website also changing Your mobile website should and Less like that: look more like that: Don‟t look at mobile devices as an “extended PC” It is a totally different device that will offer added value that a PC doesn‟t
  • 83. One for each kind? 83
  • 84. Or one for each machine? PCs Mac Tablets Smart phones Cell phones
  • 85. Design features (user wins) vs development and distribution (IT wins) 85
  • 86. How are we going to use them ? 86
  • 87. 87 87
  • 91. 91
  • 93. 93
  • 94. 94
  • 96. 96
  • 97. “one-size-fits-all” end-user computing is “out” 2008 2011 • Standard desktop • Standard desktop configuration with configuration Microsoft OS and office • Tablets/smartphones productivity tools configured for Web-based applications • Desktop or application virtualization on thin-client device • Tablet/ smartphone applications • SaaS alternatives to hosted applications 97
  • 98. 98
  • 99. So what happened ? The user: IT: • Mobility and always • IT will have to : connected allows the – Supply “content” to this “user” to shop for his own appliances set of appliances. – Receive “content” from this appliances – Content will be structured, • Appliances will have two unstructured and multimedia flavors for content – CREATE AND CONSUME – CONSUME 99
  • 100. New Desktop (1 out of 5) Google World Facebook World Apple World MS World Search People Apps Content in the middle in the middle in the middle in the middle Palm World ??? in the middle
  • 101. The future is here: WEB 3.0 Digital Marketing Is Here To Stay !! “When I took office, only high energy physicists had ever heard of what is called the World Wide`Web... Now even my cat has it's own page.” - Bill Clinton 101 101
  • 102. Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic 102
  • 103. Tribes: a group of people connected to one another, connected to a leader, and connected to an idea. Discussion: • What builds tribes? • What kills tribes? • What sustains tribes? Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic 103
  • 105. 105
  • 106. Innovation : WEB 3.0 106
  • 107. Enterprise social software is growing… blogs forums microblogging video wikis social bookmarking podcasts photos 107
  • 108. Tying together enterprise social software Blogs Book Forums marks Wikis Micro New “family” blogs of products Video Pod casts Photos 108
  • 109. WEB 3.0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/ross/3055802287/ 109
  • 110. Study by Prof. Granovetter shows that weak links are better than strong • Strong Links: More motivation to help you, since they know you better •Weak Links : Likely less overlap with leads you can easily get elsewhere Most job referrals come through those who we see rarely: old school friends, former co- workers, etc. Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic 110
  • 111. What do I use ???? • No longer need a • Blogs: memory • IT related – Google • Economics – Yahoo • Musical taste: – Wikipedia – ITunes – Twitter • Books and others: – Amazon • Personal Information • Social Capital – Smartphone tells me – LinkedIn about birthdays, phones, – groups addresses – Xing – Facebook Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic 111 111
  • 112. What do you use ? Social Technographics™ Josh Bernoff, co- author of Groundswell Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf’s work Copyright 2009©STKI Do not remove source or attibution from any graphic or portion of graphic 112
  • 113. 113
  • 114. Thank you Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf 114