This Month
Bond market dials up US rate cut bets; RBA left behind
Goldman Sachs says there is now “solid rationale” for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this month. It’s a different picture in Australia, where markets are still pricing in a rate rise.
- Sarah Jones
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why the US Fed needs to start cutting rates now
Key inflation and employment data that central bankers use to guide monetary policy lag far behind economic turning points, which results in hugely suboptimal rate decisions, writes Vimal Gore.
- Vimal Gor
New Zealand eyes August rate cut after ‘dovish pivot’
Market pundits have ramped up bets that the RBNZ may cut interest rates as soon as next month after the central bank said it was confident that inflation will return to target.
- Sarah Jones
Migration cut no ‘silver bullet’ to Australia’s inflation problem
While economists said a tightening in immigration rules should relieve rent prices and take pressure off the labour market, it may not be enough to curb inflation.
- Joanne Tran
Wall Street maps out what a Trump victory would mean for bonds
Strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
- Carter Johnson and Michael Mackenzie
Volatility is only certainty for traders parsing French elections
Traders are preparing for another volatile week after Marine Le Pen’s far-right party won the first round of France’s legislative elections.
- Julien Ponthus, Allegra Catelli and Alice Gledhill
June
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.
- Stephen Miller
Hot inflation fans bond market meltdown
The Aussie dollar jumped to US66.74¢ and bond yields surged to their highest in a month after a strong inflation report dashed hopes of lower interest rates.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
Are state governments on the brink of a debt crisis?
Victoria and Queensland have caught the infrastructure fever from NSW and have super-sized it. But financial discipline is in short supply.
- Tim Hext
Why the chances of a rate rise are higher than you think
Traders are largely ignoring the prospect of higher borrowing costs, despite the Reserve Bank’s growing concerns about still-high inflation, rate specialists warn.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate increase ‘more likely this year’ after RBA’s tough talk
An increasing number of economists say the next policy meeting in August is “live” for a rate rise after the central bank’s language at this week’s meeting.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate cut hopes fade as RBA sounds the alarm on inflation
Traders have pared back wagers for an interest rate cut in 2024 after the Reserve Bank said it was alert to upside risks to inflation.
- Cecile Lefort and Jonathan Shapiro
- Opinion
- Private equity
Why things are looking up for private markets and dealmaking
Turmoil and uncertainty are a constant in asset management. But things are starting to turn for deal makers as money is finally being put to work.
- Katrina King
Investors dial up bets on September Fed rate cut after weak jobs data
Traders ascribe a 78 per cent chance the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, opening the door for the RBA to follow.
- Cecile Lefort
$A jumps most in a month as markets ramp up rate cut bets
Traders have dialled up expectations that both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank will cut rates this year after US inflation slowed more than expected.
- Cecile Lefort
Slowing economy puts RBA rate cut on the cards: Minack
Macro strategist Gerard Minack says the cash rate is “restrictive enough”, while global borrowing costs are going to remain stubbornly high for years to come.
- Jonathan Shapiro
Canada first major central bank to cut rates ahead of ECB
The move comes ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, which is also expected to reduce rates. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
GDP revisions dent hopes of RBA rate cuts
Traders push back the timing of rate cuts to July next year after “material” revisions in GDP data indicated household finances were more robust than many feared.
- Cecile Lefort
RBA rate rise still expected even after ‘balanced’ wage review
Bond traders are still anticipating the Reserve Bank may lift the cash rate to tame inflation, even as the Fair Work Commission kept the minimum wage increase below 4 per cent.
- Cecile Lefort
May
Economists read riot act to Fair Work on minimum wage
The Fair Work Commission is expected to lift the minimum wage by 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent next week, but economists warn that anything more will add to inflation.
- Cecile Lefort
