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    Opinion

    Chanticleer

    Today

    Information memorandums are flying around the market like confetti – and private capital buyers are all over them.

    M&A forecast? It’s about to rain private capital deals

    Private capital hunters – domestic superannuation funds, offshore pension funds and asset managers such as KKR and Brookfield – have their chequebooks out and are trying to get their hands on $50 billion of Australian targets.

    • Anthony Macdonald

    This Month

    Research by Professor Hendrik Bessembinder found that 59 per cent of US companies were a drag on investor wealth between 1925 and today, and just 4 per cent of companies accounted for the net wealth creation in that period.

    Time to sell stars like CBA and Nvidia? History says be careful

    More market watchers are getting worried the stars of this rally are starting to fade. But new research says big winners tend to keep winning. 

    • Updated
    • James Thomson
    Guzman y Gomez co-CEO Steven Marks has a focused plan for growth, and  bigger, bolder goal.

    What Guzman y Gomez can learn from the Domino’s disaster

    Domino’s’ latest downgrade tells a story about long-term growth plans that investors in Guzman y Gomez should take note of. 

    • James Thomson
    Xi Jinping and Donald Trump appear to be on a collision course.

    Nvidia crash shows dark side of the Trump trade

    Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan added to a global sell-off in computer chipmakers. The episode has three big lessons for investors. 

    • Updated
    • James Thomson
    Andrew Forrest is promising a leaner, meaner Fortescue. But who’s listening?

    Fortescue’s hydrogen back-flip fails to become sugar hit it should be

    One of the issues hanging over the miner is partly gone. So why aren’t fund managers jumping in? They may be more concerned by the company’s other big problems.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Advertisement
    The CFMEU scandal raises obvious questions about how the governance standards of super fund boards could be improved.

    CFMEU scandal should force rethink on super fund boards

    Union-backed industry super funds have pushed hard to lift governance and accountability at public companies. Shouldn’t they want to improve their own governance, too?

    • Updated
    • James Thomson
    Lineage’s Australian sites include what was Oxford Cold Storage’s Laverton North premises in Victoria.

    World’s biggest IPO has Australian flavour and implications

    It might lack burritos, but we’re watching Lineage, a food storage play with Australian assets trying to secure a $30 billion listing.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Andrew Forrest’s says Fortescue will remain financially disciplined as it pursues its green vision.

    Reality bites for Forrest’s hydrogen dream. Investors won’t mind

    The biggest shake-up of Fortescue’s structure and strategy in years will be music to the market’s ear, but is more evidence the energy transition is spluttering.

    • James Thomson

    Brokers sense interest as Australia’s favourite meme stock returns

    The list of names dumped from the ASX 200 alongside Zip shows how rare a comeback is. But while its business is firing, not everything has changed.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Investors just keep pushing sharemarkets higher. But there are signs of fragilty.

    Stocks just keep rising, but bonds are flashing a big warning

    Wall Street’s rally is grinding on, and now seems to be broadening out. However, beneath the surface, there are signs of fragility that shouldn’t be ignored.

    • James Thomson
    Renovation rescue: CFMEU national secretary Zach Smith says the union is best placed to clean up its mess.

    The CFMEU can’t fix itself – just ask the banks, casinos and PwC

    If union and Labor leaders really want to win back trust in the CFMEU, only an independent and transparent inquiry into the union will do. 

    • James Thomson
    The likes of Rio Tinto are shipping plenty of Australian iron ore from the Pilbara, but what about the pipeline of new projects?

    Resources sector’s No.1 health indicator flashes red

    It’s good that Rio Tinto shipped 80 million tonnes of iron ore from the Pilbara in June, but think about what’s happening below the surface in Australian resources.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Australia’s long-standing iron ore trade faces a trio of threats in the coming years.

    Beware the triple threat to Australia’s China riches

    Approvals for Rio Tinto’s new $34 billion Simandou mine are a reminder that the next 30 years for the iron ore sector will look much different to the last. 

    • James Thomson
    Former ACCC chairman Allan Fels is looking at ways to make Sydney’s motorways network more connected.

    Transurban hijacks NSW toll review, raises social licence stakes

    Transurban changed its tune in June, promising to be part of the solution. It has six months to come up with something better for Sydney’s drivers.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Markets might be flying, but the outlook is very mixed.

    Why these 14 ASX stocks could be set to disappoint

    The sharemarket might be flirting with all-time highs, but there’s a growing sense investors are far too optimistic about earnings growth next financial year. Here’s why.

    • James Thomson
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    Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faced tough questioning about the CFMEU scandal on Monday.

    Labor’s ‘shocked and appalled’ act on CFMEU scandal is a joke

    As the billions pouring into Victoria’s Big Build rose, so too should have the accountability. Premier Jacinta Allan must explain how the CFMEU gained sway over this honey pot. 

    • James Thomson
    The big tailwinds that have driven the ASX 200 to 8000 points also carry risks.

    Why this strategist thinks the ASX at 8000 is a warning sign

    Barrenjoey’s chief macro strategist won’t spend much time celebrating the latest milestone. He says the index’s fair value is about 7300.

    • James Thomson
    Analysts have struggled to forecast CBA’s share price for years.

    CBA at $132? No one says ‘buy’, yet there are buyers

    Commonwealth Bank is a tussle between active and passive investors, mums and dads and fund managers, and traditional valuation frameworks versus reality.

    • Updated
    • Anthony Macdonald
    Donald Trump now looks near-certain to win in November. But can he engineer a sweep of Congress too?

    Why Macquarie guru Viktor Shvets says ‘Trump trade’ just got trickier

    More certainty for markets of a Trump victory now might mean more uncertainty later if he sweeps November’s elections.

    • James Thomson
    BHP’s Geraldine Slattery.

    BHP’s nickel blunder a timely reminder for Australia

    BHP wanted to profit from the EV boom by selling nickel to battery makers. It hasn’t worked, yet.

    • Anthony Macdonald