Questions tagged [forecasting]
The forecasting tag has no usage guidance.
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How useful is the genetic algorithm for financial market forecasting?
There is a large body of literature on the "success" of the application of evolutionary algorithms in general, and the genetic algorithm in particular, to the financial markets.
However, I feel ...
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Why aren't econometric models used more in Quant Finance?
There is a big body of literature on econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX or VAR. Yet to the best of my knowledge practically nobody is making use of that in Quantitative Finance. Yes, there is a ...
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How to estimate real-world probabilities
In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings.
However, the behavior of ...
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What types of neural networks are most appropriate for trading?
What types of neural networks are most appropriate for forecasting returns? Can neural networks be the basis for a high-frequency trading strategy?
Types of neural networks include:
Radial Basis ...
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Any research on how natural language processing can be used to forecast stocks?
Is there any published research of decent quality linking news or unstructured information to asset returns? I know that Thomson Reuters offers its Machine Readable news (MRN), so somebody must use it....
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How are cryptography and speech recognition technology applied to forecasting financial markets?
One of the answers to my previous question regarding the strategy of Renaissance Technologies, there was a reference to The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly ...
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How to forecast volatility using high-frequency data?
There is a large literature covering volatility forecasts with high-frequency tick data. Much of this has surrounded the concept of "realized volatility", such as:
"Realized Volatility and ...
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Why are GARCH models used to forecast volatility if residuals are often correlated?
The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...
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How do you evaluate a covariance forecast?
Suppose you have two sources of covariance forecasts on a fixed set of $n$ assets, method A and method B (you can think of them as black box forecasts, from two vendors, say), which are known to be ...
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Why quants think that the risk-neutral measure should not be used for financial forecasting?
In posts regarding the $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ debate (see 1, 2, 3 or 4), most answers conclude that historical-based forecast are better suited than risk-neutral models for financial predictions....
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What type of analysis is appropriate for assessing the performance time-series forecasts?
When using time-series analysis to forecast some type of value, what types of error analysis are worth considering when trying to determine which models are appropriate.
One of the big issues that ...
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How to forecast expected volatility from high-frequency equity panel data?
I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other papers,...
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5
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Using linear regression on (lagged) returns of one stock to predict returns of another
Suppose I want to build a linear regression to see if returns of one stock can predict returns of another. For example, let's say I want to see if the VIX return on day X is predictive of the S&P ...
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What is the Sugihara Trading System?
I recently heard the term Sugihara Trading System. I guess it might be some trading strategy or a special model to predict trends in market data, but I couldn't find out anything about it. Does anyone ...
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Why are stock index futures not used to forecast how much the stock market will rise, given that interest rates futures are used for this purpose?
In news articles, the reader often read interest rates forecasts calculated based on interest rate futures.
An example is here;
How did traders calculate that the expected number of rate hikes is 4 ...
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