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0 votes
0 answers
131 views

Is non-linear correlation problematic in financial time series prediction?

Many traditional finance models assume linear relationships between variables and features. Aren't linear correlations/covariances unable to capture financial processes empirically since they actually ...
develarist's user avatar
  • 3,040
2 votes
1 answer
143 views

Transform raw forecasts into orthogonal forecasts

I am trying to combine multiple forecasts on each of N assets in line with Grinold and Kahn's methodology, taken from Active Portfolio Management, 2nd ed. On p.311, they suggest transforming the raw ...
William Dorsey's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
344 views

How can I forecast future correlation?

There are some standard models for forecasting volatility (e.g., GARCH) and for forecasting returns (e.g., factor models). What kind of standard models exist for forecasting future correlation between ...
Thomas Johnson's user avatar
2 votes
2 answers
567 views

Normalization of Market Data in Time Series Correlation

Suppose we have 2 time series of market data, one for each security and we want to correlate between these 2 securities. My question is How do we handle gaps of missing data in the time series? ...
Jeff's user avatar
  • 21
0 votes
2 answers
486 views

What stock market indicators to model based on twitter feed? [closed]

We are developing an algorithm that models twitter users and groups of words that may indicate real world events. One application is modelling elections, i.e which party is likely going to win. ...
siamii's user avatar
  • 747
4 votes
0 answers
273 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
Lisa Ann's user avatar
  • 2,133
8 votes
2 answers
556 views

The T+H Problem in Factor model forecasts

Suppose we train on M individuals consisting of T observations (i.e. TxM design matrix). The dependent variable is one-year return for each security (H = horizon of one year). In a factor model ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar