Can your target point be within the water?
A Clear Path to the Target
To target something, you must have a clear path to it, so it can't be behind total cover. If you place an area of effect at a point that you can't see and an obstruction, such as a wall, is between you and that point, the point of origin comes into being on the near side of that obstruction.
Cover
Walls, trees, creatures, and other obstacles can provide cover during combat, making a target more difficult to harm. A target can benefit from cover only when an attack or other effect originates on the opposite side of the cover.
The cover is an "obstacle", and all the examples given are solid obstacles. Gases certainly don't provide cover, but what about liquids?
Underwater Combat
A ranged weapon attack automatically misses a target beyond the weapon's normal range. Even against a target within normal range, the attack roll has disadvantage unless the weapon is a crossbow, a net, or a weapon that is thrown like a javelin (including a spear, trident, or dart).
So, since you can use ranged weapon attacks underwater, water does not provide cover. Therefore, you can cast target your Wall of Force spell on any underwater point as it is not limited to only points that you can see like some other spells.
Notwithstanding, you could cast in on the surface and have the Wall extend into the water, or vice-versa.