This document discusses time series decomposition and its applications. It presents three case studies of decomposing quarterly revenue, monthly champagne sales, and monthly passenger volumes. Decomposition models separate a time series into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. This helps analyze which effects, such as trends vs. seasons, most influence changes over time. The case studies find that for revenue, seasonal fluctuations are less important than year-over-year trends. For champagne sales, there is essentially no trend after removing seasons. And passenger volumes have an upward trend combined with seasonal peaks in summer months.
This document contains questions for two chapters on financial management. For chapter 1 on the background of financial management, it includes questions about the objectives of financial management, the role of finance managers, and important financial decisions regarding investments, financing, and dividends. For chapter 2 on the mathematics of finance, it includes questions about concepts like present value, time value of money, effective interest rates, and their relevance for financial decision making. The document provides an overview of the key topics and concepts covered in the introductory chapters on financial management.
This document provides instructions for students to access and complete an ERIC course on social and behavioral sciences. Students should click on the ERIC course access guide in Blackboard, follow the instructions, and sign up for the social and behavioral sciences track. They then need to complete the module, quizzes, survey, and print the certificate.
MED 900 Correlational Studies online safety sake.pptx
This study aimed to compare teacher feedback, student self-regulated learning, and the relationship between these factors in high-achieving versus low-achieving secondary schools. Specifically, the study sought to determine if there were differences in (1) the types of mathematics teacher feedback, (2) students' self-regulated learning in mathematics, and (3) the relationships between teacher feedback and student self-regulated learning between high- and low-achieving schools. The study was motivated by research suggesting school climate and culture can impact these factors differently in high versus low performing schools.
Correlational research establishes relationships between variables without determining cause, using dependent variables only. It demonstrates relationships exist but not causation. A correlation coefficient measures the direction and strength of relationships between two variables on a scale from -1 to 1, with higher positive or negative values indicating stronger linear relationships. Statistical analysis evaluates numerical data through correlation coefficients and scatter plots to describe variable relationships.
Correlational research establishes relationships between variables but does not determine cause-and-effect. It uses correlation coefficients to measure the direction and strength of relationships between two variables. Statistical analysis of scores from each individual on two variables can show their relationship graphically in a scatter plot. Experimental research determines cause-and-effect relationships, while descriptive research explores characteristics without determining relationships.
PE ratio is a metric that compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share. It indicates how much an investor pays for each dollar of earnings. A PE ratio is calculated by dividing the current stock price by the earnings per share. PE ratios help investors compare similar companies and determine if a stock is undervalued, appropriately priced, or overvalued. Factors like growth rates, profit margins, returns, macroeconomic conditions, and intangible assets can impact a company's PE ratio. Comparing a company's PE ratio to its industry peers provides useful insight into how the market values that company.
This thesis examines whether implied volatility from options prices can provide additional information for forecasting realized volatility compared to historical volatility models. The study analyzes the S&P 500 index and VIX in the US, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index and VSTOXX in Europe from 2005 to 2019. GARCH and EGARCH models are estimated with and without implied volatility to evaluate its information content. Out-of-sample forecasts are generated and evaluated using statistical tests. The results suggest that including implied volatility improves model fit but does not necessarily lead to more accurate volatility forecasts compared to historical volatility alone.
A sole trader business is owned and operated by one person. It has few legal requirements beyond registering with tax authorities and adhering to relevant industry laws. Advantages include complete control, keeping all profits, and flexibility. Disadvantages include unlimited liability, limited financing options, and risk if the sole proprietor becomes ill or dies.
1. An entrepreneur organizes and operates a new business venture, taking on risks to produce goods or services. A business plan documents business objectives, operations, finance, and ownership to help obtain loans and guide the business.
2. Businesses want to grow internally through new branches or externally through mergers and acquisitions to benefit from economies of scale, increased market share, and access to new markets. However, growth brings challenges like difficulty controlling larger operations.
3. Not all businesses grow - some stay small due to factors like their industry, market size, or owners' objectives. New businesses are also at high risk of failure due to lack of experience, understanding of the market, sales, and financial resources compared
LLM powered contract compliance application which uses Advanced RAG method Self-RAG and Knowledge Graph together for the first time.
It provides highest accuracy for contract compliance recorded so far for Oil and Gas Industry.
### Data Description and Analysis Summary for Presentation
#### 1. **Importing Libraries**
Libraries used:
- `pandas`, `numpy`: Data manipulation
- `matplotlib`, `seaborn`: Data visualization
- `scikit-learn`: Machine learning utilities
- `statsmodels`, `pmdarima`: Statistical modeling
- `keras`: Deep learning models
#### 2. **Loading and Exploring the Dataset**
**Dataset Overview:**
- **Source:** CSV file (`mumbai-monthly-rains.csv`)
- **Columns:**
- `Year`: The year of the recorded data.
- `Jan` to `Dec`: Monthly rainfall data.
- `Total`: Total annual rainfall.
**Initial Data Checks:**
- Displayed first few rows.
- Summary statistics (mean, standard deviation, min, max).
- Checked for missing values.
- Verified data types.
**Visualizations:**
- **Annual Rainfall Time Series:** Trends in annual rainfall over the years.
- **Monthly Rainfall Over Years:** Patterns and variations in monthly rainfall.
- **Yearly Total Rainfall Distribution:** Distribution and frequency of annual rainfall.
- **Box Plots for Monthly Data:** Spread and outliers in monthly rainfall.
- **Correlation Matrix of Monthly Rainfall:** Relationships between different months' rainfall.
#### 3. **Data Transformation**
**Steps:**
- Ensured 'Year' column is of integer type.
- Created a datetime index.
- Converted monthly data to a time series format.
- Created lag features to capture past values.
- Generated rolling statistics (mean, standard deviation) for different window sizes.
- Added seasonal indicators (dummy variables for months).
- Dropped rows with NaN values.
**Result:**
- Transformed dataset with additional features ready for time series analysis.
#### 4. **Data Splitting**
**Procedure:**
- Split the data into features (`X`) and target (`y`).
- Further split into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets without shuffling to preserve time series order.
**Result:**
- Training set: `(X_train, y_train)`
- Testing set: `(X_test, y_test)`
#### 5. **Automated Hyperparameter Tuning**
**Tool Used:** `pmdarima`
- Automatically selected the best parameters for the SARIMA model.
- Evaluated using metrics such as AIC and BIC.
**Output:**
- Best SARIMA model parameters and statistical summary.
#### 6. **SARIMA Model**
**Steps:**
- Fit the SARIMA model using the training data.
- Evaluated on both training and testing sets using MAE and RMSE.
**Output:**
- **Train MAE:** Indicates accuracy on training data.
- **Test MAE:** Indicates accuracy on unseen data.
- **Train RMSE:** Measures average error magnitude on training data.
- **Test RMSE:** Measures average error magnitude on testing data.
#### 7. **LSTM Model**
**Preparation:**
- Reshaped data for LSTM input.
- Converted data to `float32`.
**Model Building and Training:**
- Built an LSTM model with one LSTM layer and one Dense layer.
- Trained the model on the training data.
**Evaluation:**
- Evaluated on both training and testing sets using MAE and RMSE.
**Output:**
- **Train MAE:** Accuracy on training data.
- **T
This document provides an introduction and overview to learning R. It covers installing R and RStudio, basic data types and structures like vectors, matrices and data frames. It also discusses importing data, viewing and manipulating data through functions like filtering, binding and transforming. Finally, it discusses creating summary tables from data, joining datasets, and creating visualizations and plots in R using packages like ggplot2. The goal is to learn the basics of working with data in R, performing basic analysis and creating charts.
R is an open source programming language used for data science and statistical computing. The document discusses the basics of R programming including data types, operators, control structures, functions, and data frames. It also covers R libraries, graphics, statistical analysis techniques, and how to import and export data. R can be used for tasks like classification, time series analysis, clustering, modeling, and creating visualizations. It is available free of charge and can be integrated with other programming languages.
This document discusses the nature of financial management. It begins by explaining that financial management deals with the management of capital flows and financial decision making, including financing and investing. It then outlines the scope of the finance function, including financial planning, raising funds, investment decisions, working capital management, and other financial events. The document also discusses the role of the finance manager as an intermediary between the firm's operations and capital markets. Key decisions made by the finance manager are also summarized, including investment, financing, and dividend decisions. The objectives of financial management, including profit maximization and maximization of shareholder wealth, are compared. Risk and return as basic dimensions of financial decisions are also highlighted.
This document contains questions for two chapters on financial management. For chapter 1 on the background of financial management, it includes questions about the objectives of financial management, the role of finance managers, and important financial decisions regarding investments, financing, and dividends. For chapter 2 on the mathematics of finance, it includes questions about concepts like present value, time value of money, effective interest rates, and their relevance for financial decision making. The document provides an overview of the key topics and concepts covered in the introductory chapters on financial management.
This document provides instructions for students to access and complete an ERIC course on social and behavioral sciences. Students should click on the ERIC course access guide in Blackboard, follow the instructions, and sign up for the social and behavioral sciences track. They then need to complete the module, quizzes, survey, and print the certificate.
MED 900 Correlational Studies online safety sake.pptxHaritikaChhatwal1
This study aimed to compare teacher feedback, student self-regulated learning, and the relationship between these factors in high-achieving versus low-achieving secondary schools. Specifically, the study sought to determine if there were differences in (1) the types of mathematics teacher feedback, (2) students' self-regulated learning in mathematics, and (3) the relationships between teacher feedback and student self-regulated learning between high- and low-achieving schools. The study was motivated by research suggesting school climate and culture can impact these factors differently in high versus low performing schools.
Correlational research establishes relationships between variables without determining cause, using dependent variables only. It demonstrates relationships exist but not causation. A correlation coefficient measures the direction and strength of relationships between two variables on a scale from -1 to 1, with higher positive or negative values indicating stronger linear relationships. Statistical analysis evaluates numerical data through correlation coefficients and scatter plots to describe variable relationships.
Correlational research establishes relationships between variables but does not determine cause-and-effect. It uses correlation coefficients to measure the direction and strength of relationships between two variables. Statistical analysis of scores from each individual on two variables can show their relationship graphically in a scatter plot. Experimental research determines cause-and-effect relationships, while descriptive research explores characteristics without determining relationships.
PE ratio is a metric that compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share. It indicates how much an investor pays for each dollar of earnings. A PE ratio is calculated by dividing the current stock price by the earnings per share. PE ratios help investors compare similar companies and determine if a stock is undervalued, appropriately priced, or overvalued. Factors like growth rates, profit margins, returns, macroeconomic conditions, and intangible assets can impact a company's PE ratio. Comparing a company's PE ratio to its industry peers provides useful insight into how the market values that company.
This thesis examines whether implied volatility from options prices can provide additional information for forecasting realized volatility compared to historical volatility models. The study analyzes the S&P 500 index and VIX in the US, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index and VSTOXX in Europe from 2005 to 2019. GARCH and EGARCH models are estimated with and without implied volatility to evaluate its information content. Out-of-sample forecasts are generated and evaluated using statistical tests. The results suggest that including implied volatility improves model fit but does not necessarily lead to more accurate volatility forecasts compared to historical volatility alone.
A sole trader business is owned and operated by one person. It has few legal requirements beyond registering with tax authorities and adhering to relevant industry laws. Advantages include complete control, keeping all profits, and flexibility. Disadvantages include unlimited liability, limited financing options, and risk if the sole proprietor becomes ill or dies.
1. An entrepreneur organizes and operates a new business venture, taking on risks to produce goods or services. A business plan documents business objectives, operations, finance, and ownership to help obtain loans and guide the business.
2. Businesses want to grow internally through new branches or externally through mergers and acquisitions to benefit from economies of scale, increased market share, and access to new markets. However, growth brings challenges like difficulty controlling larger operations.
3. Not all businesses grow - some stay small due to factors like their industry, market size, or owners' objectives. New businesses are also at high risk of failure due to lack of experience, understanding of the market, sales, and financial resources compared
LLM powered contract compliance application which uses Advanced RAG method Self-RAG and Knowledge Graph together for the first time.
It provides highest accuracy for contract compliance recorded so far for Oil and Gas Industry.
### Data Description and Analysis Summary for Presentation
#### 1. **Importing Libraries**
Libraries used:
- `pandas`, `numpy`: Data manipulation
- `matplotlib`, `seaborn`: Data visualization
- `scikit-learn`: Machine learning utilities
- `statsmodels`, `pmdarima`: Statistical modeling
- `keras`: Deep learning models
#### 2. **Loading and Exploring the Dataset**
**Dataset Overview:**
- **Source:** CSV file (`mumbai-monthly-rains.csv`)
- **Columns:**
- `Year`: The year of the recorded data.
- `Jan` to `Dec`: Monthly rainfall data.
- `Total`: Total annual rainfall.
**Initial Data Checks:**
- Displayed first few rows.
- Summary statistics (mean, standard deviation, min, max).
- Checked for missing values.
- Verified data types.
**Visualizations:**
- **Annual Rainfall Time Series:** Trends in annual rainfall over the years.
- **Monthly Rainfall Over Years:** Patterns and variations in monthly rainfall.
- **Yearly Total Rainfall Distribution:** Distribution and frequency of annual rainfall.
- **Box Plots for Monthly Data:** Spread and outliers in monthly rainfall.
- **Correlation Matrix of Monthly Rainfall:** Relationships between different months' rainfall.
#### 3. **Data Transformation**
**Steps:**
- Ensured 'Year' column is of integer type.
- Created a datetime index.
- Converted monthly data to a time series format.
- Created lag features to capture past values.
- Generated rolling statistics (mean, standard deviation) for different window sizes.
- Added seasonal indicators (dummy variables for months).
- Dropped rows with NaN values.
**Result:**
- Transformed dataset with additional features ready for time series analysis.
#### 4. **Data Splitting**
**Procedure:**
- Split the data into features (`X`) and target (`y`).
- Further split into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets without shuffling to preserve time series order.
**Result:**
- Training set: `(X_train, y_train)`
- Testing set: `(X_test, y_test)`
#### 5. **Automated Hyperparameter Tuning**
**Tool Used:** `pmdarima`
- Automatically selected the best parameters for the SARIMA model.
- Evaluated using metrics such as AIC and BIC.
**Output:**
- Best SARIMA model parameters and statistical summary.
#### 6. **SARIMA Model**
**Steps:**
- Fit the SARIMA model using the training data.
- Evaluated on both training and testing sets using MAE and RMSE.
**Output:**
- **Train MAE:** Indicates accuracy on training data.
- **Test MAE:** Indicates accuracy on unseen data.
- **Train RMSE:** Measures average error magnitude on training data.
- **Test RMSE:** Measures average error magnitude on testing data.
#### 7. **LSTM Model**
**Preparation:**
- Reshaped data for LSTM input.
- Converted data to `float32`.
**Model Building and Training:**
- Built an LSTM model with one LSTM layer and one Dense layer.
- Trained the model on the training data.
**Evaluation:**
- Evaluated on both training and testing sets using MAE and RMSE.
**Output:**
- **Train MAE:** Accuracy on training data.
- **T
How We Added Replication to QuestDB - JonTheBeachjavier ramirez
Building a database that can beat industry benchmarks is hard work, and we had to use every trick in the book to keep as close to the hardware as possible. In doing so, we initially decided QuestDB would scale only vertically, on a single instance.
A few years later, data replication —for horizontally scaling reads and for high availability— became one of the most demanded features, especially for enterprise and cloud environments. So, we rolled up our sleeves and made it happen.
Today, QuestDB supports an unbounded number of geographically distributed read-replicas without slowing down reads on the primary node, which can ingest data at over 4 million rows per second.
In this talk, I will tell you about the technical decisions we made, and their trade offs. You'll learn how we had to revamp the whole ingestion layer, and how we actually made the primary faster than before when we added multi-threaded Write Ahead Logs to deal with data replication. I'll also discuss how we are leveraging object storage as a central part of the process. And of course, I'll show you a live demo of high-performance multi-region replication in action.
Cómo hemos implementado semántica de "Exactly Once" en nuestra base de datos ...javier ramirez
Los sistemas distribuidos son difíciles. Los sistemas distribuidos de alto rendimiento, más. Latencias de red, mensajes sin confirmación de recibo, reinicios de servidores, fallos de hardware, bugs en el software, releases problemáticas, timeouts... hay un montón de motivos por los que es muy difícil saber si un mensaje que has enviado se ha recibido y procesado correctamente en destino. Así que para asegurar mandas el mensaje otra vez.. y otra... y cruzas los dedos para que el sistema del otro lado tenga tolerancia a los duplicados.
QuestDB es una base de datos open source diseñada para alto rendimiento. Nos queríamos asegurar de poder ofrecer garantías de "exactly once", deduplicando mensajes en tiempo de ingestión. En esta charla, te cuento cómo diseñamos e implementamos la palabra clave DEDUP en QuestDB, permitiendo deduplicar y además permitiendo Upserts en datos en tiempo real, añadiendo solo un 8% de tiempo de proceso, incluso en flujos con millones de inserciones por segundo.
Además, explicaré nuestra arquitectura de log de escrituras (WAL) paralelo y multithread. Por supuesto, todo esto te lo cuento con demos, para que veas cómo funciona en la práctica.
Airline Satisfaction Project using Azure
This presentation is created as a foundation of understanding and comparing data science/machine learning solutions made in Python notebooks locally and on Azure cloud, as a part of Course DP-100 - Designing and Implementing a Data Science Solution on Azure.
1. TIME SERIES FORECASTING
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2. DECOMPOSITION OF TIME
SERIES
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4. Visualization of Seasonality
Helps to see the nature of seasonality
But does not help in quantification
4
12-Jan-18
Objective of this lesson is to extract time series
components numerically to evaluate their
importance in the historical pattern of the data
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5. Why Decompose
• To understand revenue generation without the quarterly
effects
̶ De-seasonalize the series
̶ Estimate and adjust by seasonality
• Compare the long-term movement of the series (Trend) vis-a-
vis short-term movement (seasonality) to understand which
has the higher influence
• If revenue for multiple sector are to be compared and if the
sectors show non-uniform seasonality, de-seasonalized series
needs to be compared
5
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6. What is Seasonality?
Seasonality is the relative increase or decrease of sales
(demand or consumption) every period(quarter or
month or week) compared to the yearly average
6
Heuristic example with 4 quarters
Yearly sale = 400 units
Quarterly average = 100 units
Actual sales
Q1 = 80 units Q2 = 70 units Q3 = 200 units
Q4 = 50 units
Seasonality estimate
Q1 = -20 Q2= -30 Q3 = +100 Q4 = - 50
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7. Decomposition Model
7
Yt : time series value (actual data) at period t.
St : seasonal component (index) at period t.
Tt : trend cycle component at period t.
It : irregular (remainder) component at period t
Additive model: Observation = Trend + Seasonality + Error
Yt = Tt + St + It
Useful when the seasonal variation is relatively constant over time
Multiplicative model: Observation = Trend * Seasonality * Error
Yt = Tt * St * It
Multiplicative models are more realistic
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8. Caselet I: Quarterly Revenue
• Quarterly revenue is a sum of Trend, Seasonality and
Irregular component
• Would like to understand relative effects of the 4 quarters
• Would like to understand the long-term movement of the
series, after seasonal effect has been eliminated
• Example of an Additive Seasonality Model
Yt = Tt + St + It
Revenue = Trend + Seasonality + Error
8
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9. Decomposition in R
IncDec<-stl(Income, s.window='p') constant seasonality
plot(IncDec)
IncDec
IncDec7<-stl(Income, s.window=7) seasonality changes
plot(IncDec7)
IncDec
DeseasonRevenue <- (IncDec7$time.series[,2]+IncDec7$time.series[,3])
ts.plot(DeseasonRevenue, Revenue, col=c("red", "blue"), main="Comparison
of Revenue and Deseasonalized Revenue")
9
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10. Caselet I: Quarterly Revenue
10
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Caselet I: Quarterly Revenue
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13. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
• Monthly sales is a sum of Trend, Seasonality and Irregular
component
• Would like to understand relative effects of the 12 months
• Would like to understand whether there is at all any
movement of the sales series after the seasonal fluctuations
are eliminated
• Example of an Additive Seasonality Model
Yt = Tt + St + It
Sales = Trend + Seasonality + Error
13
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14. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
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15. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
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16. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
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17. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
• Practically there is no effect of any YOY movement
• The changes we see are almost all due to monthly
fluctuations
17
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18. Caselet II: Champagne Sales
Critical look at seasonality
• During first part of the
year almost no change
• Sharp drop in sales in
August
• Last 4 months show
steep increase in sales
18
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19. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
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20. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
• There is a definite upward movement YOY
• Seasonal fluctuations increasing as total volume increases
• Example of an Multiplicative Seasonality Model
Yt = Tt * St * It
Volume= Trend *Seasonality * Error
20
• Need logarithmic transformation to convert into an additive
series
Log(Vol) = log(Trend) + log(Seasonality) + log(Error)
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21. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
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22. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
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23. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
Write conclusions on your own:
• Which part contributes more – Trend or Seasonality?
• Which month(s) show high passenger volume compared to
yearly average?
• Which month(s) show low passenger volume compared to
yearly average?
23
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24. Caselet III: Passenger Volume
Critical look at seasonality
• From Feb passenger
volume starts
increasing
• Jun – Sep shows high
volume
• Jul – Aug has highest
vol
• Dec shows slight
increase
24
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25. Next Step
Ultimate goal of understanding the time series
components is to forecast for the coming years
In the next lesson we apply forecast by
decomposition, as well as learn about other
forecast methods
25
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Thank you
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