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Telemedia
 Futures
      by Gerd Leonhard         ‣ Futurist
                               ‣ Strategist
                               ‣ Author & Blogger
     www.mediafuturist.com
     twitter.com/gleonhard

At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010
TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom
From a Broadcast World
 to a Networked World
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems

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The Future of Media in a Networked World
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Futurist Gerd Leonhard talks about the future of broadcasting and media. More on my blog http://tinyurl.com/o8fedz

20gerdleonardsiemens
The Future of Tele-Media and Digital Content (Telco2.0 Conference)
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My presentation at eComm Amsterdam in November 2009, see more details here: http://www.mediafuturist.com/2009/10/pre-ecomm-conference-interview-telemedia-futures.html Basically, the content industry starting with music is rightfully worried about distribution becoming free. This is a global phenomenon. The more broadband we have the better devices, the more the push towards sharing and trading stuff without payment is clearly there. On the other hand, the content industry has, to a very large degree, refused to license the content in so many new ways that are being asked for, starting with imeem and YouTube, and MySpace originally. The refusal to license has essentially created a vacuum to where everyone rightly then also says if we can't actually do it legally, we have two choices which is to quit or to do it without permission. Then you have companies like imeem and MySpace and YouTube initially doing it without permission. ...

telco20 telecom future media telemedia socialmedia
The Future of Broadband: Telemedia, Futurist Gerd Leonhard
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This document discusses the transformation of technologies and the creation of new demand for information and communication technology (ICT) services. Some of the key points discussed include: - Social networks are becoming the new cable TV without the cable infrastructure. - The future of digital technologies is already here in the form of "digital natives" and the growing "networked society". - Content will continue to be a key driver but it will need to be accessible over different networks and devices. - New business models will be needed to address issues like piracy and the need for affordable, legal access to content across different platforms and locations. - The ecosystem of telecommunications, media, advertising and other industries will

broadband gerdleonhard gleonhard mobile ecosystemfutureof
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration
                      Telecom
  Internet
                            Content
Social
Networks
                         Advertising
  Consumer Electronics
From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic
What is the value of....?



Source: http://denniscass.com/

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Sharing Economy or Collaborative Consumption: the definition, background, issues, impact and future.

airbnbzipcarpeer economy
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- Individuals' behaviors and media consumption habits will drive broadband adoption more than technology itself. Online media spending is growing faster than traditional media as people spend more time online. - Technology enables and accelerates existing human behaviors. The "long tail" of niche content is increasingly driving media innovation as people consume media anywhere and anytime across multiple devices. - Net neutrality is essential for continued internet growth. It allows all content providers equal access and returns the internet to being an open platform for innovation. Discriminating between different types of internet traffic could hamper competition and growth.

long tailsportsplayiprime
Attention, Money and the Future of the Internet (Gerd Leonhard at Internet Hu...
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The PDF from my presentation at Internet Hungary 2009 in Tihany see http://bit.ly/dAnvc. Topics: defining 'broadband culture', why and how attention is the new currency, content 2.0 and the new pricing logic, the shift from mass media to niche media, why conversation beats monolog and why social media is CRM, the shift from push to pull, 'free gets you to the place where you can ask to get paid', how sharing generates income, the future of content, education trends, the end of control,

networkingfuturisthungary
The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’

Experience Platform
Service Pipe

Content Pipe

   Data
   Pipe
Source: eMarketer.com
New technologies - new practices - new business models
Firehoses of Information

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The document discusses the rise of online video and social media. It notes that online video viewing has increased dramatically, with over 800 billion views delivered by one video distribution network. It also discusses how social media has changed content discovery and distribution, with content now spreading virally from one-to-many across social networks rather than through traditional one-to-one or one-to-many broadcast models. The document suggests that these trends are transforming businesses and industries as companies look to own their media distribution and tell stories through digital content and social engagement.

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Connected Technology: Trending the Future | space150 v28
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Every 150 days space150 reinvents itself. As a part of that exercise we look at what's trending in the last 150 days, so that we can more clearly see what's coming in the future. We are seeing technology permeate our lives in ways it never had before, and are taking a deeper look at 3 trends: Connected TV, Economies of Sharing, and the digital catalysts that are the newest generation.

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This document discusses how communications and commerce are undergoing unprecedented change driven by new technologies and shifting behaviors. Key points discussed include how the "other 3 billion" people gaining internet access will change telecommunications infrastructure, how most activities are shifting to mobile devices, and how open networks and data are fueling this transformation. Fragmentation of commerce models and extreme changes in consumer behaviors are expected. The future is described as "Communication 2.0" driven by principles of openness, mobility, interactivity and real-time engagement. Trust and involvement are posited to become more important than control and consumption in this new environment.

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Social games & virtual goods




     800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY
   65 Million+ users without any advertising
            1.2 Million users per day
        est. $200M / Year in revenues
Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’
Next: The Napsterization of Books...?
    Source: YouTube.com
TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom
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The latest in learning philosophy and technology, ICT and the Zettacosm, and the ICT trends and web 2.0 technologies that comprise the Learning 2.0 Ecosystem.

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A presentation on how mobile and social media trends impact business, in general, and the corporate travel industry, in particular. The social media and mobile Internet explosion is resulting in unprecedented changes in communications and commerce. The need to reduce CONTROL to get more SHARE is evident... but how can this be done within large organizations? How can social media add value, and what are the risks? Find out more at http://www.mediafuturist.com and http://www.gerdtube.net (videos)

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The document discusses how technology will transform universities by 2020. It outlines several major shifts including (1) changing information ecosystems for networked learners due to ubiquitous connectivity and social media, (2) new literacies becoming required to navigate these environments, and (3) big data and the "internet of things" leading to an "exaflood" of information. It suggests universities will need to adapt to students being more self-directed learners who capture diverse inputs and rely on feedback from their networks.

Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts
                         Focus on Control
                         Opportunities for Growth
  10


 7.5


   5


 2.5


   0
    Calls   SMS   Data      Content   Services Experiences
The Opportunity: Lubricate!
Data is the new Oil...
  Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers
      Click-trails and digital bread-crumbs
       Opt-in information such as location
  Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback
Music     Video     Games       Books       Mags & Print

           Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%           Digital Content Trends
75%


50%


25%


 0%
   2008         2009          2010          2012           2015

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What we need:

   Permission
    Standards
  Transparency
  Engagement
Content: pricing logic will flip
      Price         Users
100



 75



 50   Metrics will be reinvented
 25



  0
              Was            Will be
More
Permissions
 More added
   Values
Better Price
   More
Convenience
Expensive   Cheaper   Flat-Rated




                                   New Ecosystem
                          Expensive

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This document outlines an upcoming roadshow in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore in July 2008 focused on telecommunications ecosystems. It will provide a look into the future of technology, markets, and business in telecommunications. The roadshow will explore how ecosystems have evolved from value chains with internal innovation and control to more open models of concurrent innovation and shared control. It will also discuss opportunities to work at the Future Centre researching ecosystem modeling, emerging technologies, and new business models.

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This deck comprises the best scenes from my last 10 keynotes and presentations, using my new graphics and animations, riffing on topics such as exponential change, the 8 game changers, technology vs humanity, digital ethics and more - check out a list of my general topics here: https://www.futuristgerd.com/topics/current-topics/

artificial intelligencedigital ethicsexponential organisations
The Future of Content:
      Attention-based Income Explodes
                                             10.0




“Broadband is useless if                     7.5




your mind stays narrow”                      5.0




                                             2.5



Was                                         0
                Soon

      Copy Based Revenues        Mid-term Future

      Attention Based Revenues
Content is only ~20% of the Cost




                        Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra
Bono / Paul McGuinness


                 Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)
Media $$$: no
 longer about
 Distribution

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A collection of memes and key messages from my last 5 talks on this topic see more at http://www.futuristgerd.com/2017/04/15/shared-keynote-presentation-ai-thinking-machines-and-the-future-of-humanity-futurist-speaker-gerd-leonhard/ If you enjoy my slideshares please take a look at my new book “Technology vs Humanity” http://www.techvshuman.com or buy it via Amazon http://gerd.fm/globalTVHamazon More at http://www.futuristgerd.com or www.gerdleonhard.de Download all of my videos and PDFs at http://www.gerdcloud.net About my new book: are you ready for the greatest changes in recent human history? Futurism meets humanism in Gerd Leonhard’s ground-breaking new work of critical observation, discussing the multiple Megashifts that will radically alter not just our society and economy but our values and our biology. Wherever you stand on the scale between technomania and nostalgia for a lost world, this is a book to challenge, provoke, warn and inspire.

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                     Source: IFPI Report 2008
Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
         Value of Meta-Content        Value of Experiences
         Value of Packaging
               Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
                                                      Value of Context
100%
                                                   Value of Experience
                                                 Value of Meta-Content
                                                    Value of Packaging
75%



50%



25%
                                                  Value of ‘a Copy’

 0%
   Was            Is                  Soon              The Future
Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!
ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:

     Social Networking
      Content Services
    Communication 2.0
           Money 2.0
            eLearning

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More at www.techvshuman.com -- which side you on? Do we need an EPA for humanity ? Technology vs. Humanity is a last-minute wake up call to take part in the most important conversation humanity may ever have. Will we blindly outsource and abdicate big chunks of our lives to the global technology companies – or will we take back our autonomy and demand a sustainable balance between technology and humanity? By supplying a Socratic and humanistic critique of the Megashifts currently recasting our world, Gerd Leonhard provides the prologue for this great debate.
 Now is the time to join the dots between big data and digital ethics, to start discussing the moral framework required to steer the evolution of digital life – and to finally articulate the difference between our unique humanity and the rapidly evolving robotic versions. In 1949 George Orwell released Nineteen Eighty-Four – offering us a stark warning of a world dominated by technology and those who own and control it. Nearly seventy years after its publication, Gerd Leonhard investigates how we preserve our humanity in a world that is rapidly beginning to resemble that science fiction. If you enjoy my slideshares please take a look at my new book “Technology vs Humanity” http://www.techvshuman.com or buy it via Amazon http://gerd.fm/globalTVHamazon More at http://www.futuristgerd.com or www.gerdleonhard.de Download all of my videos and PDFs at http://www.gerdcloud.net About my new book: are you ready for the greatest changes in recent human history? Futurism meets humanism in Gerd Leonhard’s ground-breaking new work of critical observation, discussing the multiple Megashifts that will radically alter not just our society and economy but our values and our biology. Wherever you stand on the scale between technomania and nostalgia for a lost world, this is a book to challenge, provoke, warn and inspire.

futuresagencyexponentialitysingularity
2020 global digital transformation communicasia Gerd Leonhard Futurist Speake...
2020 global digital transformation communicasia Gerd Leonhard Futurist Speake...2020 global digital transformation communicasia Gerd Leonhard Futurist Speake...
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This document discusses global digital transformation over the next 5 years. Key points include: - Exponential increases in connectivity, data, intelligence, and the convergence of man and machine through intelligent digital assistants. - Technology is developing exponentially while humans remain linear, raising questions around who will control and regulate emerging technologies. - As everything becomes connected, security, standards, ethics and rules will be crucial to address issues like addiction, privacy and the control of emerging technologies. - Embracing technology while maintaining human values and purpose will be important for responsible transformation.

The digital transformation of society and business: 2020. Futurist keynote sp...
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This is a selection of my best slides from the past 6 months, on the timely topics of digital transformation, exponential technological change, and technology vs humanity. If you enjoy my slideshares please take a look at my new book “Technology vs Humanity” http://www.techvshuman.com or buy it via Amazon http://gerd.fm/globalTVHamazon More at http://www.futuristgerd.com or www.gerdleonhard.de Download all of my videos and PDFs at http://www.gerdcloud.net About my new book: are you ready for the greatest changes in recent human history? Futurism meets humanism in Gerd Leonhard’s ground-breaking new work of critical observation, discussing the multiple Megashifts that will radically alter not just our society and economy but our values and our biology. Wherever you stand on the scale between technomania and nostalgia for a lost world, this is a book to challenge, provoke, warn and inspire.

exponential organisationstechnology humanitywork and jobs
Thanks for your time
email me at
gerd@mediafuturist.com
twitter.com/gleonhard
facebook: gleonhard
more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com

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TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

  • 1. Telemedia Futures by Gerd Leonhard ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010
  • 3. From a Broadcast World to a Networked World
  • 4. From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
  • 5. From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
  • 6. The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration Telecom Internet Content Social Networks Advertising Consumer Electronics
  • 7. From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic
  • 8. What is the value of....? Source: http://denniscass.com/
  • 9. The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’ Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  • 11. New technologies - new practices - new business models
  • 13. Social games & virtual goods 800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY 65 Million+ users without any advertising 1.2 Million users per day est. $200M / Year in revenues Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’
  • 14. Next: The Napsterization of Books...? Source: YouTube.com
  • 17. Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts Focus on Control Opportunities for Growth 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
  • 19. Data is the new Oil... Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers Click-trails and digital bread-crumbs Opt-in information such as location Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback
  • 20. Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% Digital Content Trends 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
  • 21. What we need: Permission Standards Transparency Engagement
  • 22. Content: pricing logic will flip Price Users 100 75 50 Metrics will be reinvented 25 0 Was Will be
  • 23. More Permissions More added Values Better Price More Convenience
  • 24. Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated New Ecosystem Expensive
  • 25. The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes 10.0 “Broadband is useless if 7.5 your mind stays narrow” 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Soon Copy Based Revenues Mid-term Future Attention Based Revenues
  • 26. Content is only ~20% of the Cost Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra
  • 27. Bono / Paul McGuinness Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)
  • 28. Media $$$: no longer about Distribution
  • 29. 2010: watch the sea change Source: IFPI Report 2008
  • 30. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 31. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!
  • 32. ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning
  • 33. Thanks for your time email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com