the WoRld AheAd 2024
Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation
From the editor
The World Ahead 2024
Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024
A letter from the editor of The World Ahead
Contents
Contents
Leaders
Democracy in danger
2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy
In theory it should be a triumphant year for democracy. In practice it will be the opposite
Multipolar disorder
The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity
The fragility of the Western coalition is a crucial weakness
Middle East in turmoil
Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East
But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile
Whither Ukraine?
Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine
As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on
America’s fateful choice
America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election
Unprecedented, uncharted, not unthinkable
The world economy
Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy
Inflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain
The year ahead
KAL
Drawing on 2024
The Economist’s editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher pictures the year ahead
Superforecasters
Superforecasters in 2024
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024
The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year
Britain
Britain votes
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change?
Two men who are not natural brawlers will fight it out for power in Britain’s election in 2024
Tories in trouble
Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality
Expect the five stages of grief
Britain’s economy
The outlook for the British economy is better than expected
But that does not mean it is rosy
Ditching the king
Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III?
A new wave of republicanism is gathering
The ailing NHS
Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024
Perhaps hotter than usual
Labour’s economic plans
Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances
The shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer promises to restore economic stability
Europe
Ukraine fights on
The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate
Some big decisions will need to be made
Russia’s perpetual war
Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever
But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try
Trouble in the Caucasus
How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus
Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia
Baltics and Nordics
Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together
It turns out the Baltics were right
Politics and Olympics
France will unify for sport but not for politics
The Paris 2024 Olympics will briefly pause the polarising politics
Centrists v populists
Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again
Expect spats over net zero and over who gets the top jobs
United States
Unpopularity contest
An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms
The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise among American voters
Who to watch
The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election
Some are well known, some are not
America’s economy
Three economic risks facing America in 2024
The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet
Stretched superpower
With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?
American power is being stretched abroad and undermined at home
Free speech online
Can America regulate big tech at all?
State internet-safety laws face First Amendment scrutiny in 2024
Small towns get bigger
Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South
Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic
The Americas
Latin America’s politics
Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024
Politics in the region is becoming more complex
Mexican democracy
Mexico will elect its first female president
The question is how much she will be like her predecessor
Thriving startups
The future is bright for Latin American startups
Companies are doing well around the region’s pain points
Canadian politics
Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister
He may find an unlikely ally in Donald Trump
Asia
India’s election
Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope
He is long accused of mistreatment of political opponents and religious minorities
Indian technology
India has big plans to export its e-government technology
From biometric IDs to payment systems, it has a lot to offer
Taiwan’s election
China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president
It prefers, as always, the KMT candidate
Asia in 2024
The Central Asian republics are cultivating new alliances
But links to Russia are likely to remain strong
Central Asia’s ties
The energy transition could create unexpected linkages in Asia
Energy linkages
Indonesia will elect a new president in February
But economic policies may not shift much after Jokowi’s departure
China
An undeclared cold war
China’s leaders will seek to exploit global divisions in 2024
But they will continue to preach harmony
End of the road?
China’s appeal to poor countries is changing
It is less about the money and more about the message
Xi and the yes-men
Xi Jinping will consolidate his power in the coming year
But who are the runners and riders below him?
China’s economy
China faces a trade-off between confidence and credibility
Setting the official economic-growth target poses a dilemma
Foreign firms’ woes
Life will get even harder for foreign firms in China
It looks like the new, post-covid normal is here to stay
Disaffected youth
The Chinese Communist Party is struggling to inspire the young
Youth unemployment will remain high
Middle East & Africa
Beyond Gaza
A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East
America will still be an important part of it
The Palestinians’ future
The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life
Many eyes will be on the Palestinian Authority
Middle Eastern music
The Middle East’s music business has huge potential
Governments and record labels are paying attention
Iran’s future
In Iran, 2024 is all about the succession
Ayatollah Ali Khaminei, the supreme leader, makes some calculations
Africa’s economies
African countries will scrimp on investment in the coming year
This will drag down future growth
International
How to rig an election
How to rig an election
Rather than crudely stuffing ballot boxes, autocrats will cheat in hundreds of less obvious ways
Green metals
Demand for “green” metals will redraw the global mining map
The energy transition will mint new fortunes in surprising places
Deep-sea mining
Deep-sea miners are ready to get down to work
Now they are just awaiting legal authorisation
The new arms race?
Nuclear testing could start a new arms race
This time it would be three sides, not just two
Industries
The World Ahead 2024
Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries
A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit
Trendlines
Trendlines in 2024
Metrics to keep an eye on in 2024, from solar cells to superhero movies
Some are merely fun—while others are potentially world-changing
Business
Decarbonising industry
Decarbonisation of industrial activities is beginning
Technology is improving, and policy is starting to shift
The next tech platform
The fight to control the headset market will intensify
They are the next big tech platform
US-China chip wars
Semiconductors will remain central to America’s tech rivalry with China
Expect America to step up global enforcement of its sanctions on chips and chipmaking gear
Chinese EVs pull ahead
EVs are poised to make China the world’s biggest car exporter
Its lead in battery-making is crucial
Finance & economics
Strong labour markets
Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024
Even if there is a recession
Global minimum tax
A global minimum tax on firms is finally taking shape
But another much-trumpeted tax reform looks destined to fall apart
Poor countries’ debt
The world’s most indebted countries face another year in limbo
Geopolitical tensions have frozen the process of debt restructuring
Rollercoaster markets
Investors are daring to hope for some stability in the stockmarket
After three years riding a rollercoaster
Central-bank digital currencies
The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies will slow in 2024
They create new problems while solving few
Science & technology
What’s next for AI
AI models will become smaller and faster
They will improve in plenty of other ways, too
Fighting obesity
Expect a bumper year for weight-loss drugs
The market for drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro could be worth $77bn by 2030
New drugs to watch
New medical treatments will use genetic scissors, and other clever tricks
From sickle-cell disease to glaucoma, these are the drugs to look out for
The year in space
Astronauts are returning to the moon…well, sort of
There are plenty of other launches, missions and rockets to look out for
A solar eclipse
Get ready for the Great North American eclipse
It is one event that will definitely happen in 2024
A global crop pandemic
The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies
As plant diseases spread across continents, greater scrutiny is needed
Culture
AI’s impact on Hollywood
AI will transform every aspect of Hollywood storytelling
But it will also cause more friction
Books to watch for
What will be the bestsellers in the coming year?
Books on robots, Russia and romance are likely candidates
Musicals’ moment
A spate of new musicals will cheer the spirits in 2024
There is nothing like a bit of pure escapism
African architecture
A new era for west African architecture
Buildings that bridge tradition and modernity are taking shape
Music in China
Female rock stars are becoming increasingly popular in China
But songs about female empowerment still make the government nervous
Obituary
Obituary
Reflections on paperlessness, in the spirit of Ogden Nash
As several airlines prepare to phase out paper boarding passes in 2024, our obituarist laments the decline of paper tickets of all kinds