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Political polarization: threat to international cooperation.
- 1. Political polarization impedes International Cooperation INTRODUCTION Does Political polarization impede International Cooperation? As per UNDP report 2023-2024: Highly polarized society is the face of political division Populist tendency of society Clash of political ideologies: How the Nexus of political polarization develops? Contextualizing zero some thinking versus variable some thinking: Conducive environment of developing and low income countries: So what ought to be done: Steps to evade the threat of political polarization to international cooperation. A) Enhance international Collective actions: Four stages of collective action: 1) Read behaviors of native community: 2) Restrict existing aid mechanisms: 3) International organizations as sovereign guarantor to satisfy concerns of investors and creditors: 4) Effective use of public diplomacy: B) Framing alternative to zero sum thinking: C) Financing programs of Global Public good: Build trust on international organizations and institutions through national institutions: How polarize society can address their issues to ensure Corporation: Addressing perception of insecurity: Inject continuous stream of counter narratives Conclusion
- 2. Political polarization is an existential threat to international cooperation. It undermines the ability of states to collaborate effectively over shared challenges, potentially hindering progress and across border communication on global issues that require coordinated actions. As per UNDP report, it has hijacked the domestic politics of USA so Pakistan with no exception. Ironically speaking, it is not just limited to state affairs but equally affects International treaties and agreements. So eventually influence the global integration. Hence the countries entrenched in partisan bickering find it challenging to forge the alliances necessary to tackle pressing global issues like climate change or international security. International Corporation is not merely based on a signed treaty or agreement or even as a result of membership of a certain block rather social context of a state. In international Arena when countries collaborate, they do share some common believe systems in the form of progress, establishment of peace, improving the quality of life. This share believe system of values, norms, narratives as well as global perception (world view) largely compels the states to join hands. So the states start developing positive outlook (International Corporation) through social ties with the like minded States. Purpose of International Corporation is global common good, which is achieved through the method of Interdependence. States exhibit this interdependent through cross-border trade and connecting markets as per a shared economic agenda. The problem of political polarization in 21st century is is not just limited to domestic context rather the populist leaders enhanced its scope by targeting external elements to strengthen their arguments. This can be understand through Brexit, an event of 2020 when the population of United Kingdom was highly polarized whether to remain part of European Union or to leave it at the cost of certain gains. In the whole situation of uncertainty, campaign by the populist leaders of that time was specially based on targeting and defaming European Union. The same pattern can be witnessed throughout the globe. Greece is another relevant example to quote here, In 2015 when debt crisis of Greece increased, the political elite started criticizing IMF and European Union to get enough votes in the referendum. Unfortunately, to ridicule and criticize external factors for the vested interests is becoming new norm in global politics, because at the end of the day the crowd support this kind of hyper political narrative. Hence, the cooperative environment disrupts immediately in the light of political charge sheet and these Global bodies become more skeptic about the further collaboration for common good. No doubt diversity is beauty of a democratic society but this diversity getting shape of separate identity under a political force by targeting international forums is a significant threat to corporation with in a country and globe with no exception. The roots of political polarization strengthened by the policy of us versus them. When the political elite of a certain regime failed to deliver, it starts criticizing the agreements and treaties of previous governments to divert public attention from ongoing issues. the similar pattern is practiced by developing countries like, Pakistan, Greece, Turkey, Austria, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and so on. So the political polarization within state, to certain extent is not a matter of concern but when its Canons hit hard on foreign policy agenda, the international Corporation eventually collapse.
- 3. "Since 2022, Pakistan's previous allies, such as the European Union, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, China, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, have started imposing conditionalities on the state, which is an obvious outcome of political polarization in the 'land of the pure.' Under accusations of corruption, the interim regime terminated its long-term agreements with Qatar and began demanding reevaluation of the CPEC project in 2019. This political segregation has not only tarnished the domestic fabric of the state but also caused devastating results in the form of conditionalities that eventually affect the foreign policy of the state." Contextualizing zero some thinking versus variable some thinking: zero sum game operates best in domestic affairs of political society but using same political approach in foreign policy is not considered worth appreciating. However international cooperation requires the variable sum thinking, in the form of win- win situation for both parties. For the better understanding, let’s take the example of USA who use " us vs them" policy in war on terror. unfortunately, that approach ended up in the form of trust deficit from Muslim world against the political maneuvering of America. This erosion of public trust consequently develops a threat to global cooperation. Donald trump pursue the same policy in 2018 that cause trust erosion against the trump administration in the power corridors. for example, us govt. started trade war with China and in 2020 it openly ridiculed the Covid-19 as "China virus " which initiated the us versus them debate in USA. The same goes with revising the Iran deal and leaving Paris agreement. Hence it is proved that rise of political polarization coupled with zero something will eventually diminish the idea of International Cooperation. Establishing political narratives against International Institutes and organizations will give short term political benefits in domestic affairs but effects the idea of common good in a long run. Effects on developing and low income countries: when countries and their leaders use political polarization as a foreign policy tool, the channels of official developmental assistance limit their options. These channels include International bodies like World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank and other well-known UN Agencies. The idea of skepticism is a part of political culture and the matter of domestic politics of a country but the demand of political acumen of leadership is to not let these political believes define the global narrative of a state. Among 84 referendums that has been conducted so far from 1970-2012 there was only a single event when a state asked to exit the membership (Brexit), otherwise every time voting favored the cooperation and collaboration. Thus the manifestation of cooperative tendency can be traced throughout the globe. "However, in the 21st century, populist regimes like those of Trump, Erdogan, Lula da Silva, Imran Khan, and Viktor Orbán, when they criticize global forums, will eventually impede international cooperation. Contentious approach of international organizations: In highly polarized societies these global bodies are targeted during speeches by leaders in their political rallies and election campaigns which ultimately influence the foreign policy of the state because these forums respond immediately in their defense and question the credibility of collaboration of the state. The reaction of these International institutions is quite fast as compare to the states. e.g. EU banned the PIA fights in their countries due of tough conditions is also a result of political polarization in Pakistan.
- 4. "International organizations perceive the targeting statements of politically polarized societies as personal attacks on these prestigious forums and, in response, start questioning issues of human rights, income inequality, governance, and many other concerns in their official reports or statements. For example, in 2018, Pakistan was named on the FATF grey list and remains there in consecutive years, even though countries like Panama and Egypt faced more severe corruption scandals and violated FATF recommendations during those years. The same is the case with India, where money laundering of four trillion US dollars in Indian banks was exposed during that particular time span, yet it still remains on the FATF white list. Thus, global bodies sometimes satisfy their personal grudges due to conflicting statements from a country against such forums, which subsequently affects the international cooperation of that country." Misuse of political campaigns against the international cooperation: The political campaigns against international cooperation throws a wrench into the gears of global unity, creating rifts where collaboration should thrive. When politicians play the nationalist card to score points with voters, they often paint international agreements as selling out national interests. This not only fans the flames of distrust but also puts a spanner in the works of diplomatic efforts, making it harder to build consensus or keep promises made on the world stage. The zero some policy by a developed country can put their legitimacy at stack: When developed countries use polarization as a tool against these global bodies, it ends up challenging their legitimacy. For example, in late 2017 and early 2018, Trump made bashing statements against the World Trade Organization, claiming that the WTO had failed to enforce its provisions and to curb China. He argued that it was the moral responsibility of the United States to uphold the legitimacy of the WTO by imposing tariffs of $200 billion on Chinese exports. As a result, it was evident that the complaints of China and the USA were not effectively addressed by the WTO, as the tense bilateral relations between these two powers affected the WTO's legitimacy. If the WTO plays the role of mediator between these two powers and fails to narrow their differences, it could eventually hurt the WTO's legitimacy. Steps to evade the threat of political polarization to international cooperation. A) Enhance international Collective actions: It is a matter of fact that political polarization gives rise to an uncertain environment for cooperation, and certain political groups use it to secure their vote bank (India-Afghan factor). However, it is also a fact that the United Nations performs best in politically polarized and relatively tense atmospheres across the globe, such as the efforts of the UN in the African regions of Rwanda, Congo, and Somalia, where UN agencies (UNICEF, WFP, etc.) were incorporated to effectively conduct relief operations on the ground. These peace-building operations were effective because the polarized groups showed less resentment against the United Nations compared to operations by any other state. Four stages to ensure Cooporation: In addition to this there are several other pathways for to consider. 1) Read behaviors of native community:
- 5. Try to understand the public pulse through narratives coined by leadership as well as masses of the polarized society for better execution of policies. 2) Restrict existing aid mechanisms: Usually, different operational aid mechanisms, whether by a state, through a donor agency, or via a financial institution, are challenged by leadership in these societies to trigger public sentiment. Therefore, it is highly recommended to cut previous aid mechanisms, reevaluate the whole scenario, and establish new official assistance schemes for cooperative societies. 3) International organizations play the role of sovereign guarantor to satisfy the trust issues of investors and creditors: The investors and creditors throughout the globe are reluctant to invest in highly polarized regions and these trust issues are largely inspired by political instability, corruption, red tapism and labels which are stipulated with such societies. 4) Effective use of public diplomacy: Community engagement is the best solution to deal with a polarized society by addressing public concerns. For this purpose, efficient communication can be channeled through education, media, and cultural participation to inject external narratives into the masses and neutralize previous narratives. Otherwise, these kinds of polarized societies have a tendency to eventually end up in civil war. B) Framing alternative to zero sum thinking: Zero-sum thinking can provide advantages in the domestic sphere but can equally be drastic in geopolitical affairs. Therefore, developing a realization against zero-sum politics and effectively utilizing a variable-sum approach is the need of the hour. Undoubtedly, the benefits of cooperation are not equally shared; rather, they are variable, where one party gains relatively more than the other, yet both benefit. American scholar Elinor Ostrom developed various international frameworks for public interaction. She emphasized the importance of global partnerships through international institutions, especially the World Bank, UNO, and IMF, to achieve effective and immediate relief through foreign aid and assistance. C) Financing Global Public good programs: It is a proven fact that political polarization in the 21st century is directly proportional to inflation. High inflation rates and increasing unemployment figures provide a conducive environment for marginalized groups to thrive and spread their extremist narratives, exacerbating political disparity further. In such a murky scenario, economic well-being could be the only remedy to improve the financial outlook of deprived segments of society. In order to build public trust in these global institutions, it is the responsibility of these bodies to instill a sense of improvement and belongingness to counter polarized narratives. Potential conflicts in polarized societies pose a persistent threat to global peace. Therefore, timely identification of existing issues is of utmost importance. The challenges confronting the globe include climate change, sustainable development, pandemics, viral diseases, and many more. Thus, sponsoring quality education with community awareness can transform political
- 6. mindsets and foster perceptions to redirect attention. The more effective the financing, the more positive results can be extracted from it. The UNDP report of 2023-24 strongly supports a promising and proactive approach towards these societies because leaving them unattended could lead to utter ruin. Build trust on international organizations and institutions through national institutions: It is a universal phenomenon that polarized societies are highly skeptical towards international organizations. Therefore, it is the responsibility to rebuild public trust through the effective utilization of national institutes. This goal can only be achieved through strengthening these domestic institutions, which ultimately foster cooperative relations with global bodies and bring progressive gains for society. Strong national institutions are reliable enough to counter populist leaders and their narratives. On the other hand, if the writ of the government is weak, people show more resentment towards the incumbent regime. Thus, the basic provisions that are workable here include free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, and strict accountability of corrupt elements. According to the UNDP report, trust in national institutions complements the image of global cooperation bodies. The survey report, conducted in 100 countries, highlights that in developed societies where 37% of the public show trust in national institutions, the trust rate in global institutions is 47%. In contrast, weaker societies exhibit a proportional ratio of 26% to 17% over these institutions. How polarize society can address their issues to ensure Corporation: There is no global consensus over a single Universal solution because polarized societies vary widely in their tendencies and patterns, making it challenging to find a single universal solution for fostering cooperation. Populist narratives often arise from misconceptions about specific issues or societal groups. Leaders with populist tendencies exploit these misconceptions, combining them with emotional statements to gain popularity, sometimes at the expense of national sovereignty. These political maneuvers not only distort the social fabric but also hinder international cooperation. This phenomenon is exemplified by climate change, where widespread belief attributes it to anthropogenic activities on Earth. However, over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions are produced by major global players such as China, the United States, India, and international airlines and shipping corporations. Despite this, 69% of the population is willing to sacrifice part of their income to combat climate change and ensure a sustainable future for the next generation. This wave of pluralistic ignorance often serves the interests of these global players. Addressing political polarization requires tackling biased tendencies within the system. There is no one-size-fits-all solution as polarized groups often avoid dialogue and become aggressive, labeling any mediating party. Even basic facts struggle to alter their belief systems. Instead of targeting, increasing the flow of counter-information consistently and continuously is crucial. Highlighting fundamental facts and figures, such as the actions of global players and their efforts (or lack thereof) regarding climate change, can reduce populist tendencies over time. Political
- 7. beliefs are not easily changed overnight, but persistent efforts to present alternative narratives can diminish polarization, recognizing that there is no ultimate solution to this complex issue. Addressing perception of insecurity: A major issue in polarized societies is that political elites consciously cultivate ideas of distrust towards national and international institutions among the public. These fears are often fueled by the notion of protecting their political leadership. Leaders like Erdogan, Trump, Imran Khan, and others manipulate their voters by instilling a sense of insecurity, portraying themselves as defenders against global forces perceived to be conspiring against them.. For instance, Trump induced fear among his supporters by claiming that the opposition party and the US government were plotting against him through unjust accusations of financial mismanagement and personal attacks, including threats of arrest and interference in his election campaigns. He also withdrew the USA from international agreements like the Paris Agreement and criticized global forums like the WTO, aligning with mainstream populist ideas. In such cases, it is not about proving the voters or public wrong but exposing the hypocritical nature of these leaders. Media and communication tools should be used to gradually neutralize this sense of insecurity by revealing the personal fears and motivations of these leaders. When developed societies struggle to mitigate these political manipulations, it becomes essential to counter them effectively. Conclusion: In a nutshell, navigating the complexities of political polarization requires a concerted effort to bridge divides and dispel misconceptions. Leaders who exploit insecurities for personal gain sow seeds of distrust that hinder progress and unity. It's imperative to confront these challenges head- on, using transparency and dialogue as tools to dismantle divisive narratives. As the saying goes, 'United we stand, divided we fall.' By fostering a climate of cooperation and mutual understanding, societies can forge a path towards a more harmonious and resilient future.