How much support does a ground offensive in Lebanon have among the Israeli public?

Question

Israeli forces and Hezbollah have been trading blows across the border for months now. The Israeli government appears to be under some political pressure to gain the upper hand and ensure the return of the displaced Israelis; as a gov't spokespersons put it: the current state of affairs is "not a sustainable reality". There's been some talk of an impending Israeli ground offensive as well, possibly with the purpose of occupying a security/buffer zone in Lebanon etc.

I'm curious how much public support these proposals have in Israel. Are there any polls on these matters, i.e. ground offensive and/or occupying a buffer zone in Lebanon?

Answer 1

With the usual disclaimers that polling data is notoriously unstable, subject to sampling biases, and easily manipulated by the surveyors if they so desire, there are two datapoints which suggest a majority of Israelis would support military action in Lebanon for the purpose of cowing Hezbollah.

In December of 2023, relatively soon after the October 7th attacks that prompted Israel's current military options in Gaza, 51% of Israelis believed a military strike against Hezbollah to impair their fighting ability was worth the risk of opening a 2nd front to the war. This evidence comes from the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute - the IDI is a non-partisan think tank and seems to have a reasonable reputation for doing good public opinion research. The timing of that poll, however, is important to note. It's relatively proximal to the October attacks and is also much earlier the in war against Hamas. War fatigue can be swift in how it erodes enthusiasm for military action.

The second piece is far more recent (February 2024) poll published by Maariv, an Israeli newspaper with limited circulation and conflicting assessments as to its political leaning. I can't easily locate the poll itself, but it is widely reported, including in reporting from the BBC as showing 71% of Israelis supporting a military operation in Lebanon in response to increased rocket attacks, etc.

The IDI polling is likely of higher quality, but the Maariv polling is more recent which is important when a shooting war is going on.

Answer 2

I would feel that February is still relatively "ages ago" in terms of measuring war fatigue as suggested in William Walker III's answer. During that time Israel's allies have become far less supportive and the ceasefire arrangements to return hostages have become seemingly more tenable (though all of these traits can only be measured subjectively).

Many citizens would likely be starting to reflect on what conditions would be considered a "victory" in their minds, and perhaps even starting to reflect on who they want leading the nation. In fairness it must be stated though that any polls about the current Israeli government's popularity are probably as variable as those about war support.

From the anecdotal perspective of a casual observer (me) it would seem that the appetite for continued warfare has largely diminished in the current context. Opening a second (or even third in Iran's case) front with few hostages yet to be returned and lacking international support would be a difficult proposition to sell to the public I imagine.

TLDR; it seems there is very little in reliable metrics to judge the support for a Lebanese front in Israel.