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If $X,Y$ are random variables, such that $\mathbb E|Y|\lt \infty$, $\mathbb E[Y|X] = m(X)$ where $m$ is some Borel measurable function and $(X_1,Y_1)$ come from same distribution as $(X,Y)$. Is it true that $\mathbb E[Y_1|X_1] = m(X_1)$?

Attempt I managed to prove $$\mathbb E[Y_1] = \mathbb E[Y] = \mathbb E[\mathbb E[Y|X]] = \mathbb E[m(X)] = \mathbb E[m(X_1)]$$ which leads to $$\mathbb E[\mathbb E[Y_1|X_1]] = \mathbb E[m(X_1)],$$ but I am not sure how to proceed.

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  • $\begingroup$ $m$ is some Borel measurable function. $\endgroup$
    – Nasal
    Commented May 24, 2023 at 10:47
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    $\begingroup$ Morally, this must be true, otherwise conditional expectation would depend on the underlying abstract space, making it a not so useful notion. Though admittedly, I’ve never thought about this before, nice question. $\endgroup$
    – Andrew
    Commented May 24, 2023 at 11:36
  • $\begingroup$ @Speltzu Its not quite the same question. X and Y from the comments satisfty the relation. $\mathbb E[X|X] = X = id(X)$, $\mathbb E[Y|Y]= Y = id(Y)$ $\endgroup$
    – Nasal
    Commented May 25, 2023 at 9:04
  • $\begingroup$ You're right. The equality is a simple application of the post I was referring to. $\endgroup$
    – Speltzu
    Commented May 25, 2023 at 10:06

1 Answer 1

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It's true. Let $B$ be a Borel subset of the real line. Then $$\int Y \mathbb 1(X\in B)\,dP = \int y \mathbb 1(x \in B)\,\mu(dx,dy) = \int m(x)\mathbb 1(x\in B)\,\mu(dx,dy)$$ , where $\mu$ is the law of $(X,Y)$ and coincidentally $(X_1,Y_1)$. It follows $$\int m(x)\mathbb 1(x\in B)\,\mu(dx,dy) = \int Y_1 \mathbb 1(X_1\in B)\,d\tilde P$$ , since $$\int Y_1 \mathbb 1(X_1\in B)\,d\tilde P = \int y\mathbb 1(x\in B)\,\mu(dx,dy)$$

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