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The context is this paragraph from my SAT & ACT Prep book on page 11.

"There is one thing to keep in mind: Pick one letter for the SAT or a two-letter combo for the ACT and stick to it throughout the test! For example, always choose (B) on the SAT or choose (A)/(F) or (C)/(H) on the ACT. Since both tests have a mostly-even distribution of answers, by maintaining a consistent guessing pattern, you have a much better chance of picking up a few free raw points than if you were to guess at random. And, let's be honest: if you find yourself running out of time, scoring a few extra points without even reading a question is pretty awesome."

This paragraph is discussing how you should answer when you can't properly answer a question with confidence. Their main claim is that you should pick one letter for guessing instead of randomly guessing because it gives more points. However, don't both of these situations yield the same result?

Let's say I put down (B) as an answer to an SAT question. I would have a 25% chance of getting it right, since each letter has an equal chance of being the right answer since there is no reason for any letter to appear more often than another, assuming the SAT answers are random.

However, if I were to guess randomly, there is a 25% chance that the letter I chose is right, no matter what letter it is. This is because there should be a uniform distribution of As, Bs, Cs, and Ds on the SATs, assuming that the answers are randomly generated, so all their probabilities are equal and 25% each.

Thus, isn't the book wrong that their strategy gives more correct answers? The only reason you would want to use their strategy is because it's much easier to write down (B) for all the answers quickly rather than trying to write down all the letters in a uniform random distribution.

The book is the 2nd edition of "Reading and Writing Prep for the SAT & ACT" created by The Princeton Review and Jonathan Chiu (hope that's proper attribution).

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  • $\begingroup$ Assuming that the distribution is truly even, yes, it is totally wrong. I remember being asked this by my cousin and being shocked that this was being written. I guess the only rationale is to avoid wasting time on wondering which letter to pick. $\endgroup$ Commented Jan 16, 2022 at 2:12
  • $\begingroup$ I'm wondering if the authors thought that a student's randomizing scheme might somehow be negatively correlated with the solution key's randomizing scheme? And that recommending choosing a constant answer forces independence of the two schemes. $\endgroup$ Commented Jan 16, 2022 at 2:33
  • $\begingroup$ In 2014 the SAT had 44 mcqs, 67 in reading and 47 in writing, that's a total of 158 questions. The probability of getting all 158 questions right is $$\frac{1}{5^{44}} \times \frac{1}{5^{67}} \times \frac{1}{5^{47}} \approx \frac{1}{2.7 \times 10^{110}}$$ So guessing really won't save you. They are wrong. Since if let us say 5 million teenagers took it virtually no-one would get a perfect score on any of the 3 sections. $\endgroup$
    – Bumblebee
    Commented Jan 16, 2022 at 2:40
  • $\begingroup$ @Ajay The purpose of guessing is when there are questions you can't answer since you won't be penalized for getting answers wrong. $\endgroup$
    – Some Guy
    Commented Jan 16, 2022 at 3:04
  • $\begingroup$ Yeah, i'm fully aware of that. I typed the above comment to display how unrealistic it is to try and guess in the SAT. $\endgroup$
    – Bumblebee
    Commented Jan 16, 2022 at 3:06

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