A juggler practices juggling. His results vary quite a bit. Sometimes he drops the balls quickly, sometimes he can hang in there for a while. Here is a distribution of his juggling durations after 36 attempts:
Duration (s) | No of attempts |
---|---|
5 | 9 |
10 | 9 |
15 | 6 |
20 | 5 |
25 | 3 |
30 | 4 |
The question is: how likely is he going to continue past a certain duration once he reaches it?
My idea would be e.g. for 5 seconds: He stops after 5 seconds 9 times, but he achieves > 5 seconds 36-9=27 times Hence his likelihood of reaching more than 5 seconds once he is at the 5 s mark is 1-(9/27) =66%
Or, once he reaches 10 seconds: 9 times he reaches 10 seconds (attempts to 5 dont count because they dont reach 10 seconds), 18 times he goes past 10, so the likelihood of passing 10s once reached is 50% or:p= 1-(9/18).
Is this right?