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I'm not sure about how to solve the following problem

Randomly draw 5 cards from a deck of cards. What is the probability of getting two pairs and one of the 5 cards is Heart-7 (♥7)?

I solved it this way:

Case 1 (7 is a pair): (3C1)(12C1)(4C2)(11C1)

Case 2 (7 is not a pair): (12C2)(4C2)^2

So the probability is: ((3C1)(12C1)(4C2)(11C1) +(12C2)(4C2)^2)/(52C5)

But I think I'm missing something

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    $\begingroup$ 52C2? Don't you mean 52C5? $\endgroup$
    – JMoravitz
    Commented Sep 1, 2020 at 18:15

2 Answers 2

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Not quite. In the first case there are actually $44$ possibilities for the odd card, not $11$: it can be any of the $44$ cards of denominations different from those of the two pairs. If you prefer, it’s $\binom{11}1\binom41$: $11$ ways to choose the odd denomination, and $4$ ways to choose one card of that denomination.

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  • $\begingroup$ I thought that the suit of the last card wouldn't mater. But I guess I was ignoring all the possible cases then. $\endgroup$
    – Rad120
    Commented Sep 1, 2020 at 18:52
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    $\begingroup$ @Rad120: Yes, it really does matter, since changing the suit of the odd card changes the poker hand — not its value, but the hand itself. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 1, 2020 at 19:37
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Case 1 (7 is a pair): (3C1)(12C1)(4C2)(11C1)

Select $7\heartsuit$ and one $7$ from three other suits, one from twelve other kinds in two from four suits (the other pair), and one from eleven remaining kinds $\color{red}{\textit{in one from four suits}}$ (the singleton).

$$\def\binom#1#2{\mathop{^{#1}\mathsf C_{#2}}} {\binom 31\,\binom{12}{1}\binom 42\,\binom {11}1\binom 41}$$

Case 2 (7 is not a pair): (12C2)(4C2)^2

Select $7\heartsuit$ as the singleton, and two from twelve kinds each in two from four suits.$$\color{silver}{\binom{1}{1}}\,\binom{12}2{(\binom 42)}^2$$

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