I am trying to understand the difference of the two solutions for the expected value of collisions for the birthday problem:
- https://math.stackexchange.com/a/35798/254705 derives the following solution:
... so the expected number of people who share birthdays with somebody is $n\left(1-(1-1/N)^{n-1}\right)$.
whereas
This leads to an expectation value $\lambda$ (date collisions in terms of the lambda distribution) of $\lambda = \frac{n(n-1)}{2m}$
For $2^{32}$ "days" and $10^6$ people,
- results in $E_1 = 232.8033$
and
- results in $E_2 = 116.4152$
It looks like that $\frac{E_1}{E_2} \approx 2$.
As $E_2$ gives the number of collision pairs instead of number of people involved in collisions, this seems reasonable to me.
Which of the solutions is correct? Is $E_2$ just an approximation?