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Consider a game that consists of dealing out three hands of three cards each from a deck of nine cards. The deck contains the three Aces, three Kings, and three Queens. What is the probability someone is dealt three of a kind?

Attempt: Let D= event 3 of a kind are dealt to someone.

Then there are (9 choose 3 ways set the cards in each deck x 3 choose 1 ways to pick a deck)

(9 choose 1 * 2 choose 2 ways to pick the other two cards)

I'm confused now though. I don't understand the logic

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  • $\begingroup$ First, let's get clear on the question: Is it the chance of exactly one person getting three of a kind, or at least one? $\endgroup$
    – Bram28
    Commented Sep 24, 2019 at 16:14
  • $\begingroup$ @Bram28 I have no idea the question doesn't specify. It just says someone. I'm thinking it means at least one $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 24, 2019 at 16:16
  • $\begingroup$ OK, that would be my interpretation as well. Now, one trick with a question like that is to calculate the chance of no one getting three of a kind ... for then you can just subtract that probability form 1 to get the probability of at least one person getting three of a kind. By the way: is it possible for exactly two people to get three of a kind? $\endgroup$
    – Bram28
    Commented Sep 24, 2019 at 16:38
  • $\begingroup$ No that is impossible. But the problem is, there are (9 choose 1 ways to pick card one and 6 choose 2 ways to pick card two and three) then you multiply this by 3 choose one. But This number is larger than 9 choose 3 x 3 choose 1 total possible combos I came up with? I don't understand where I'm going wrong $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 24, 2019 at 16:54
  • $\begingroup$ Not following your calculations. Yes, there are 9 cards, so 9 ways to choose card 1 ... but where does the 6 choose 2 come from? What, in fact, are you trying to calculate here? $\endgroup$
    – Bram28
    Commented Sep 24, 2019 at 16:57

2 Answers 2

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Total number of hands is $\begin{pmatrix} 9 \\3\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}$.

Number of hands where person 1 gets 3 of a kind is $3\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}$. Similarly for the other two players.

Number of hands where each person gets 3 of a kind is $3!$.

The probability is $$\frac{3(3\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}-3!)+3!}{\begin{pmatrix} 9 \\3\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}}=\frac{9\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}-12}{\begin{pmatrix} 9 \\3\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix} 6 \\3\end{pmatrix}}.$$

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I'll use counting where....... $$P = \frac{\text{successful outcomes}}{\text{total outcomes}}$$

$$P = \frac{3\cdot \binom{6}{3}+2\cdot 3 (\binom{6}{3} - 2)}{\binom{9}{3}\cdot \binom{6}{3}} = \frac{60 + 108}{84\cdot 20} = \frac{1}{10}$$

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