Yahoo Finance

As if Big Tech needed a greater bullish tailwind, the second half of the year since the bear-market bottom in 2002 has seen a seasonal dominance for the group. In the past 20 years, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has risen 4% on average in the second half, with a 90% win rate. Standout months have been November, with a 74% win rate and an average 2% return, while both August and October have a 58% win rate and average gains of 0.8% and 1.4%, respectfully. The NDX saw second-half gains in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. Many of these gains clocked in between 15% and 40%. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The second-quarter earnings season is about to begin, so investors can shift their focus from economic data to corporate performance. The major banks kick off the action, with reports coming from the likes of JPM, C, BK, and WFC (with PEP and DAL also stepping up). Many bank stocks have perked-up recently, although there was some selling late last week. Treasury yields also took a dive at the end of the week, with the 10-year dropping to 4.27% after running smack into channel resistance drawn off the peaks since April 25. The 10-year has also been oscillating almost perfectly between its downward-sloping Bollinger Bands. A 61.8% retracement of the move from December to April lies at 4.14%, while the bottom of the channel is at 4.1% looking out a week. The five-year looks very similar to the 10-year. The two-year tanked on Friday, falling to 4.6%. It looks like the Fed is behind the eight ball and a September cut now seems very likely. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After very nice advances in gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and copper (CPER) from February/March until May, the metals complex cycled into extreme momentum/overbought territory on both daily and weekly timeframes and then pulled back. We have been waiting patiently over the past six to seven weeks for signs of an attractive reentry point. We also wanted to see signs that the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) was topping, as a weakening greenback generally is a favorable backdrop for the metals. All three broke nicely higher on Wednesday, gaining 1% to 3% and breaking their downtrends off highs from the second half of May. At the same time, the dollar has dropped the past three trading days and traced out a lower high, but remains in an uptrend off the late-December lows. We had mentioned that the USD COT data recently deteriorated after being dollar bullish since late last year. GLD held in the best during the pullback, and has traded in a sideways consolidation, while SLV and CPER were hit harder. GLD didn't retrace even a minor 38.2% of its rally from mid-February and never was near daily oversold territory. A range break above $225 could send GLD up to $240 or more, and eventually a lot higher based on the massive base from 2011 until early 2024. SLV retraced 38.2% of its rally and held key trendline support off the secondary low in March. A break over $29/$30 would open the door for a possible jump to the mid- to high-$30s region. CPER generally is a wildcard (and one that is highly volatile), but a break over $31 could also lead to a move to the mid- to high-$30s region. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATION has an Investment Rating of SELL; a target price of $8.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety Subrating of Medium; a Financial Strength Subrating of Low; a Growth Subrating of Low; and a Value Subrating of Medium.