AllTechnical Analysis
logoArgusJuly 08, 2024

Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

Intermediate Term
Long Term
Summary

As if Big Tech needed a greater bullish tailwind, the second half of the year since the bear-market bottom in 2002 has seen a seasonal dominance for the group. In the past 20 years, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has risen 4% on average in the second half, with a 90% win rate. Standout months have been November, with a 74% win rate and an average 2% return, while both August and October have a 58% win rate and average gains of 0.8% and 1.4%, respectfully. The NDX saw second-half gains in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. Many of these gains clocked in between 15% and 40%. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The second-quarter earnings season is about to begin, so investors can shift their focus from economic data to corporate performance. The major banks kick off the action, with reports coming from the likes of JPM, C, BK, and WFC (with PEP and DAL also stepping up). Many bank stocks have perked-up recently, although there was some selling late last week. Treasury yields also took a dive at the end of the week, with the 10-year dropping to 4.27% after running smack into channel resistance drawn off the peaks since April 25. The 10-year has also been os

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