Finns headed to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president, an office whose importance has grown as tensions with neighbouring Russia have increased since the invasion of Ukraine.
While the president’s powers are limited, the head of state – who also acts as supreme commander of Finland’s armed forces – helps to direct foreign policy in collaboration with the government, meaning the changing geopolitical landscape in Europe will be the main concern for the winner.
Two politicians lead the pack of nine candidates: the former conservative prime minister Alexander Stubb and the ex-foreign minister Pekka Haavisto of the Green party, who is running as an independent.
Just behind the frontrunners are the far-right Finns party candidate, Jussi Halla-aho, who experts believe could make it to the second round. The polls opened at 9am local time (7am GMT) and will close at 8pm.
Hannu Kuusitie, a voter, told AFP that the country needed a president with “leadership” and “humanity”. “Of course, he must also be tough when necessary,” he added.
Relations between Moscow and Helsinki deteriorated after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, prompting Finland to drop decades of military non-alignment and join the western military alliance Nato in April 2023. Russia, with which Finland shares an 830-mile (1,340km) border, swiftly warned of “countermeasures”.
By August 2023, Finland had observed an influx of migrants entering through its eastern border without visas. Helsinki claimed Moscow was pushing the migrants in a hybrid attack to destabilise it, and Finland closed its eastern border in November.
“We are in a situation now where Russia and especially Vladimir Putin is using humans as a weapon,” Stubb said on Thursday evening during a final televised debate. “It’s a migrant issue, it’s a ruthless, cynical measure. And in that case we have to put Finland’s security first.”
Haavisto, his main rival, stressed that Finland had to “send Russia a very clear message that this can’t go on”.
In the post-cold war period, Helsinki maintained good relations with Moscow. The incumbent president, Sauli Niinistö, who is stepping down after serving two six-year terms, once prided himself on his close ties with Putin before becoming one of his most trenchant critics.
Against this backdrop, all of the presidential candidates champion Finland’s independence and its new role as a Nato member, said Hanna Wass, the vice-dean of the faculty of social science at the University of Helsinki.
“They all seem to have a strong idea emphasising self-sufficiency, in that in the future Finland should be in charge of its defence independently and also be an active contributor in building a shared European defence and Nordic cooperation,” Wass told AFP.
With such similar stances, the election will focus more on the candidates’ personalities, according to Tuomas Forsberg, a professor of foreign policy at the University of Tampere. “This will be more about electing an individual, where you look at the person’s credibility and reliability and perceived qualities as a leader of foreign policy,” Forsberg said.
A poll published by the public broadcaster Yle gave Stubb a first-round lead with 27% of the vote and put Haavisto in second on 23% and Halla-aho on 18%.
Stubb was prime minister of Finland between 2014 and 2015, while Haavisto has held several ministerial posts. Wass said: “They both have broad experience in both domestic and foreign politics, which voters seem to value the most.”
While sharing similar political views, Haavisto and Stubb represent different backgrounds, Forsberg noted. “Their background and values … are seen as quite different because Alex is more a representative of the right and Haavisto of the left, even if Haavisto has tried to underline that there is nothing red about him, that he has taken the middle road as a Green,” Forsberg said.
In a second voting round – which will be held on 11 February unless a candidate receives more than 50% – the election debates could be decisive, he added.
