Finland’s leading presidential candidate has said foreign policy and security are “existential” issues for the Nordic country, as it prepares to head to the polls for the first time since joining Nato.
Speaking on Friday at a breakfast event in Helsinki two days before Finland’s presidential election at a cafe named after him, Alexander Stubb, who was prime minister from 2014 to 2015, said he had thought he was finished with national politics. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had changed his mind.
Debates between the nine candidates hoping to take over from Finland’s two-term president Sauli Niinistö in March had been “very constructive”, said Stubb, of the centre-right National Coalition party. He said all candidates were qualified for the role.
He remains the frontrunner but polls have recently tightened between the top three candidates. Stubb’s lead over the former foreign minister and Green candidate Pekka Haavisto has slimmed and Jussi Halla-aho, of the far-right Finns party, is catching up in third. The top two candidates will move to an expected second round.
Stubb, 55, said: “The debates have been very constructive, and there’s a reason for that. For Finland, foreign policy, security policy, is existential, so it’s very consensual.” Discussions have centred around foreign policy, the president’s role as commander-in-chief and the candidates’ values. “So you get a lot of questions about Russia, Ukraine, Gaza, US-China, US elections, Finnish Nato membership,” he added.
After eight years in government – as highlighted by his campaign posters, which are emblazoned with the figure in a big yellow font – Stubb said his return had been spurred by Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
“Having been in government for eight consecutive years and having held all the key portfolios, I felt in 2016 that I had very much done it for God and country, as they say. My plan was not to return to politics, or certainly not to national politics … but Putin’s attack on Ukraine changed it.”
After joining Nato at record speed last April, he believes Finland is entering “a new age in Finnish foreign policy”.
“When it became evident, right at the beginning of the war, that our path towards the alliance would begin, I felt strongly that this is a new age in Finnish foreign policy and perhaps I could throw my hat into the ring once again.”
Stubb said he was approaching the campaign like an endurance event, with preparations that started six months ago. “Now we’re in race season,” he added. “A couple of more days to go. I’ve visited 120 different towns and cities, I’ve given about 170, plus or minus, interviews, we’ve had 44 public debates, televised or streamed. So we [the candidates] know each other’s jokes quite well.”
He said he followed a “trinity of nutrition, rest and exercise” to maximise his energy levels and had taken an ice bath before Thursday’s televised debate. “I go and take an ice bath and go straight into the studio. So I’m full of beans when the debates begin,” he said.
The strengthening of the Finns party before the first round vote had added an extra dimension to the campaign.
Hanna Wass, a vice-dean at the faculty of social sciences at the University of Helsinki, said that, as a result of broad consensus between candidates on security policy, Russia and Ukraine, the context of the election consolidated early on in campaigning. But despite this, she added, the Finns party, which earlier this year was elected into the Finnish government’s ruling coalition, was increasingly grabbing the public’s attention and creating a polarising atmosphere.
“The Finns party once again showed its ability to twist the electoral agenda by activating themes related to socio-cultural issues or even nativism, as well as playing with the narrative that national media hold systematic bias against them, demonstrated, for instance, by reluctance to publish polls showing gains for Halla-aho.”
This, she said, could open up a push for tactical voting to prevent Halla-aho from making the second round.
On the streets of Helsinki many appeared undecided about who to vote for.
Yacquub Moalim Ali, 28, a consultant from Helsinki, said he was still making up his mind – probably choosing between either Li Andersson of the Left Alliance or Stubb – but he definitely would not be voting for Halla-aho.
“If you go through his comments it’s really brutal to read as a son of immigrant parents,” he said.
