Where next for Plan S?
- 1. Where next for Plan S?
Rob Johnson, Research Consulting
2 May 2019
The IPG Spring Conference 1
@rschrobUK
- 2. Where next for Plan S?
1. Publishing as a complex system
2. Plan S - a Simple solution?
3. Hope for the best, plan for the worst
2
- 4. What do we mean by
complexity?
Source: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence
4
Systemic
Path-
dependent
Sensitive
to context
Emergent
Episodic
- 5. Are we ‘locked-in’...?
5
Firm becomes
successful
Temporarily cuts
prices to remove
competition
Increases
popularity by
advertising
Influences
economic trends
and societal norms
Becomes too
large to govern
Increasing
power and
consolidation
of the market
- 7. ... Or at a tipping point?
7
Image: Pixabay CC0
- 8. Proportions of open access content
– 1975-2018
Courtesy of Eric Archambault (Science-Metrix)
(Figure courtesy of Eric Archambault)
- 9. Preprint posting is increasing
9
Source: http://www.prepubmed.org/monthly_stats/ - December 2018 data
Year
Number of
preprints
posted
- 18. Feedback on Plan S
Clear support for the transition to open access.
Source: Lisa Hinchcliffe “Taking Stock of the Feedback on Plan S Implementation Guidance“ -
https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/02/11/with-thousand-of-pages-of-feedback-on-the-plans-s-implementation-guidance-
what-themes-emerged-that-might-guide-next-steps/
18
Guidance might work for STEM but will negatively impact HSS
scholars.
Technical requirements are poorly thought out.
Concern for viability of small, independent, and society
publishers.
It is likely impossible to set a fair and reasonable APC.
Scholars and organizations in the Global South object to being
told what they want.
Timelines are not feasible.
- 21. Equity
- participatory governance and conflict-resolution mechanisms
Efficiency
- joined-up thinking that recognizes the inter-connected nature of
research and publishing
Sustainability
- monitoring and feedback mechanisms
21
What can we hope for?
- 22. The law of excess
diversity
22
‘The long-term survival of a system requires more
internal diversity than appears requisite at any time’
Image: Pixabay CC0
Quote – Allen, P. (2001), ‘ A complex systems approach to learning in adaptive systems’.
International Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 149-80
- 23. What should we plan
for?
• No movement on the principle of ‘full and immediate access’
• Emphasis on cost transparency rather than price caps?
• Increasingly polycentric approach?
• Exceptions as a means of ‘squaring the circle’?
23
- 25. Variable publisher
impact
• More than 3,500 publishers have no Plan S-funded papers in Web of
Science at all
• Of >10,000 journals in WoS, only 3,700 had 6 or more Plan S-funded
papers
• No publisher has more than 30% of their papers Plan S-funded
Source: ISI (2019) The Plan S footprint https://clarivate.com/g/plan-s-footprint/
25
- 26. Gold or Green OA?
Source: https://client.cntv.at/egu2019/gdb5 26
Plan S is NOT all about
gold open access!!David Sweeney – Executive Chair of
Research England and Co-Chair of
Plan S Implementation Task Force
- 28. What about China?
Source:OA2020 Mainland China Signatory Libraries Discussed a Response
To Plan S Guidance on Implementation http://english.las.cas.cn/ns/ne/201904/t20190402_207494.html
28
Chinese authorities and libraries have indicated their support for the
majority of Plan S principles – but full implications are unclear…
“We believe the transition process can be realized within the framework of
currently available resources. We see no legitimate reasons for, and will
object to, any attempts to increase spending from the original subscribing
institutions in the transformation.”
(Mainland China Signature Libraries, April 2019)
- 30. “If we think that the world is not entirely predictable, we would still
plan - but review the outcomes of the plan more frequently”
Quote: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence
Hope for the best, plan
for the worst