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Want better estimation ?

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Alexandre Cuva
Alexandre Cuva

The document discusses estimation techniques. It presents five estimation laws: 1) Don't estimate if you can measure, 2) compare instead of estimating units, 3) measure things that are measurable, 4) reduce precision of estimates based on knowledge, and 5) use different metrics for different estimates. Good practices discussed include using story sizing for requirements, measuring in hours for small tasks, using velocity, splitting large stories, and measuring fixed cycle times. The document provides resources for further learning about agile estimation techniques.

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Want a better estimate ? Alexandre Cuva Coach Agile, CSM, CSPO, LTM3 HSPTP PMDay Bucharest - 2012
Alexandre Cuva Email : Organizational Coaching alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum) m Team Coaching Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban) Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy) Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)
Want better estimation ?
Observation The complexity is growing fast
Observation The current standard management system, does not provide satisfaction to all.
My Actual Mission Help companies to make this sentence True for them “Organizations can become learning networks of individuals creating value, and the role of leaders should include the stewardship of the living rather than the management of the machine.” http://www.stoosnetwork.org
How to have an Accurate Estimation ?
Common Scenario How long do you think this project I think in 6 will take ? we need month we to finish in 3 will be done month. Didn’t hear me I say it should be done in 3 month !!!
Problem of estimation From this picture Estimate the size of my submarine ?
3 points estimation The 3 point estimate 1. Take the worst belongs to the time scenario management knowledge 2. Take the best scenario area. It can also be used 3. Take the median during Cost Estimation. A three point estimate is a better estimate, compared E = (O+M+L)/3 to a single point estimate. Single point estimate simply gives you a single number scenario
Things that influence Estimates Project Size Culture Tools Type of Software Team Cohesion Personnel Factors Management Programming Languages … Complexity Constraints Turnover Experience
Are estimate important ? Scheduling Defining Iteration Estimation Prioritization Break Work
What is estimate? Estimate Target Commitment Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
Estimation Challenges Provides an 95% Confident estimation for: How old I am ? How many bugs will have on the next project ? What is the distance between the earth and the moon ? What is the % surface of water on Earth ? Question: What make you are confident at 95%
Important Laws of Nature Parkinson’s Law The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task. The Student Syndrome Start as late as possible Exponential Error Aggregation The more detailed – the further from truth you will be Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
5 law to Ponder from Joel Semeniuk ESTIMATION LAW Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
Estimate Law #1 Don’t estimate if you can measure
Estimate Law #2 Estimate in a way human are good at ! Compare instead estimate unit
Estimate Law #3 Measure things that are Measurable Eg Start-Finish Time versus Actual versus Planned Effort
Estimate Law #4 To mitigate the risk of Vision incorrect effort Roadmap estimations we reduce the precision of our Release estimates according Iteration to how much we know about what we’re estimating. Day This in turn helps us to be more accurate.
Cone of Uncertainty
Estimation Law #5 Use the different Metrics for different Estimates
GOOD PRACTICE TO START
Simple Practices that Work Use Sizing for Requirements Measure Velocity Decompose into Task Just in Time in Hours Calibrate and Recalibrate Use cycle Time to Predict Expected Duration
Use Sizing for Requirement Example : Ski trail difficulty Numeric Values ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 50, 100 Green Trail : ½, 1, 2, 3 (16) Blue Trail : 5, 8 (8) Red Trail : 13, 20 (8) Black Trail : 50, 100 (8)
Measure Velocity The amount of product backlog that a team can handle in one single sprint Quantified in story points Story point is an arbitrary measure to quantify the required effort to finish an user story. Namely, how hard the story is. Loosely based on Fibonacci series. Business Solutions
Size Stories Story should fit in one Iteration Story too complex should be split on multiple simple one
Fixed Cycle Time Remember Law #1 : Measure instead guessing Measure the time to resolve
Summary Estimation Law 1. Don’t estimate if you can measure 2. Compare instead estimate unit 3. Measure things that are Measurable 4. Reduce the precision of our estimates according to how much we know 5. Use the different Metrics for different Estimates Good Practices • Sizing for requirement • Hours for small task • Velocity • Size Story • Fixed cycle time
Resources
Want better estimation ?
Alexandre Cuva Email : Organizational Coaching alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum) m Team Coaching Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban) Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy) Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)

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Want better estimation ?

  • 1. Want a better estimate ? Alexandre Cuva Coach Agile, CSM, CSPO, LTM3 HSPTP PMDay Bucharest - 2012
  • 2. Alexandre Cuva Email : Organizational Coaching alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum) m Team Coaching Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban) Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy) Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)
  • 5. Observation The current standard management system, does not provide satisfaction to all.
  • 6. My Actual Mission Help companies to make this sentence True for them “Organizations can become learning networks of individuals creating value, and the role of leaders should include the stewardship of the living rather than the management of the machine.” http://www.stoosnetwork.org
  • 7. How to have an Accurate Estimation ?
  • 8. Common Scenario How long do you think this project I think in 6 will take ? we need month we to finish in 3 will be done month. Didn’t hear me I say it should be done in 3 month !!!
  • 9. Problem of estimation From this picture Estimate the size of my submarine ?
  • 10. 3 points estimation The 3 point estimate 1. Take the worst belongs to the time scenario management knowledge 2. Take the best scenario area. It can also be used 3. Take the median during Cost Estimation. A three point estimate is a better estimate, compared E = (O+M+L)/3 to a single point estimate. Single point estimate simply gives you a single number scenario
  • 11. Things that influence Estimates Project Size Culture Tools Type of Software Team Cohesion Personnel Factors Management Programming Languages … Complexity Constraints Turnover Experience
  • 12. Are estimate important ? Scheduling Defining Iteration Estimation Prioritization Break Work
  • 13. What is estimate? Estimate Target Commitment Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  • 14. Estimation Challenges Provides an 95% Confident estimation for: How old I am ? How many bugs will have on the next project ? What is the distance between the earth and the moon ? What is the % surface of water on Earth ? Question: What make you are confident at 95%
  • 15. Important Laws of Nature Parkinson’s Law The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task. The Student Syndrome Start as late as possible Exponential Error Aggregation The more detailed – the further from truth you will be Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  • 16. 5 law to Ponder from Joel Semeniuk ESTIMATION LAW Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  • 17. Estimate Law #1 Don’t estimate if you can measure
  • 18. Estimate Law #2 Estimate in a way human are good at ! Compare instead estimate unit
  • 19. Estimate Law #3 Measure things that are Measurable Eg Start-Finish Time versus Actual versus Planned Effort
  • 20. Estimate Law #4 To mitigate the risk of Vision incorrect effort Roadmap estimations we reduce the precision of our Release estimates according Iteration to how much we know about what we’re estimating. Day This in turn helps us to be more accurate.
  • 22. Estimation Law #5 Use the different Metrics for different Estimates
  • 24. Simple Practices that Work Use Sizing for Requirements Measure Velocity Decompose into Task Just in Time in Hours Calibrate and Recalibrate Use cycle Time to Predict Expected Duration
  • 25. Use Sizing for Requirement Example : Ski trail difficulty Numeric Values ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 50, 100 Green Trail : ½, 1, 2, 3 (16) Blue Trail : 5, 8 (8) Red Trail : 13, 20 (8) Black Trail : 50, 100 (8)
  • 26. Measure Velocity The amount of product backlog that a team can handle in one single sprint Quantified in story points Story point is an arbitrary measure to quantify the required effort to finish an user story. Namely, how hard the story is. Loosely based on Fibonacci series. Business Solutions
  • 27. Size Stories Story should fit in one Iteration Story too complex should be split on multiple simple one
  • 28. Fixed Cycle Time Remember Law #1 : Measure instead guessing Measure the time to resolve
  • 29. Summary Estimation Law 1. Don’t estimate if you can measure 2. Compare instead estimate unit 3. Measure things that are Measurable 4. Reduce the precision of our estimates according to how much we know 5. Use the different Metrics for different Estimates Good Practices • Sizing for requirement • Hours for small task • Velocity • Size Story • Fixed cycle time
  • 32. Alexandre Cuva Email : Organizational Coaching alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum) m Team Coaching Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban) Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy) Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)