Notes on Decisive presentation by Chip and Dan Heath
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This document summarizes key points from a presentation on the book "Decisive" by Dan Heath. It outlines a 4 part process for making better decisions called WRAP: 1) Widen Your Options to consider more alternatives, 2) Reality-Test Assumptions to avoid confirmation bias, 3) Attain Distance Before Deciding to gain perspective, and 4) Prepare To Be Wrong by establishing "tripwires" to catch mistakes. Examples are given of how narrow thinking and short-term emotion can lead to bad decisions. The WRAP process is presented as a way to make more informed choices by considering more data and perspectives.
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Notes on Decisive presentation by Chip and Dan Heath
- 1. 1 Notes on Decisive By Thu Nguyen http://www.bloggingfor.info Read more about the book at: http://heathbrothers.com/books/decisive/ Presented by Dan Heath May 16, 2013, Chicago, IL, 3PM The 4 Part Process Widen Your Options Reality-Test Your Assumptions Attain Distance Before Deciding Prepare To Be Wrong How can we stop the cycle of agonizing over our decisions? How can we make group decisions w/o destructive politics? How can we ensure that we don’t overlook precious opportunities to change our course?
- 2. 2 Intro Profound choices Ex: Smoot-Hawley Tariff There are more bad decisions than good: Retirement Tattoo removal Love Medical Birdwatching and now … Angry Birds What’s wrong? How can we do better? Both professionally and personally It’s practical Not complex with confusing spreadsheets/analysis We need a process to protect us from the traps.
- 3. 3 The Villians of Decision-Making o Narrow Framing o Confirmation Bias o Short-Term Emotion o Overconfidence The solution to each villain is found through WRAP. The WRAP Process Widen Your Options Reality-Test Assumptions Attain Some Distance Prepare To Be Wrong
- 4. 4 Widen Your Options Quaker buying Snapple (see older campaigns) Studied teenager’s decision Whether ‘or’ not Paul Nutt research with organizational decisions Only 29% considered alternatives (narrow framing) What to do to widen your options? Fall in love twice! Think ‘and’ not ‘or’
- 5. 5 Reality-Test Assumptions When something goes wrong, you’ll often ask yourself: How could something like this happen? The confirmation bias seeks for data to support you rather than data that contradicts. Data That Supports Me Data That Contradicts Me
- 6. 6 Dan’s story with getting funding for Thinkwell … His advisor’s advice: Nobody’s going to tell you that your baby is ugly. Most of the time, you think you’re looking for truth, but it’s assurance. Data doesn’t help. You’ll ‘cook the books.’ How to counteract ‘cooking the books’ Ooching (try it) Test, not guess
- 7. 7 Attain Some Distance Trust your gut (a common advice) Dan’s Cheesecake Factory story The Ultimate Red Velvet Cake for dessert = 3 McD’s cheeseburger + a pack of Skittles Trust your gut? Harry Potter book idea Rejected 7 times before it was published Did these publishers trust their gut? Listen to your gut but stay skeptical Short-term is unreliable Long-term more reliable Think about it this way: Emotions that fade and emotions that lasts
- 8. 8 Ex: Calling someone you’ve only spoke with once You versus your friend’s advice You waiting versus your friend’s idea to call The Power of Advice Ourselves – we get lost in the trees Friends – we see the forest Get your quick answers Ask yourself: What would you tell your best friend to do? If you were fired or replaced what would you tell your successor?
- 9. 9 Prepare To Be Wrong Motion once maintained stays in orbit Decisions made also stay made Learn to snap awake at the right moments A warning light Tripwires (time to act) Case Study: David Lee Roth of Van Halen Strategically made concert operations safety public This improved engineering and sound checks Same time when Michael Jackson’s hair set on fire The M&M tripwire Article 126 in contract – ‘no brown M&Ms’ If found, a complete line check was required
- 10. 10 Last Thoughts Decisions when wrong It’s predictable Awareness doesn’t work The Process Becomes a safety road A harness Makes you bolder Email Dan Heath at dan@heathbrothers.com. Decision (Predictions) Tripwire (Triggers)