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ITU Institute of Social Science
March 21, 2023
Global Marketing:
A Macro(economic) Perspective
Prepared and Presented by:
Eren OCAKVERDİ
Research and Analytics Consultant
eren.ocakverdi@yapikredi.com.tr
External factors affecting a firm
2
Firm
Economy
Politics
Social
culture
Legal
Environment
/
Sustainability
Technology
Firm
Economy
Politics
Social
culture
Legal
Environment
/
Sustainability
Technology
Impacts are uneven and not mutually exclusive
3
4
Determine the
relevant economic
factors and long-
term trends.
Analyse the impact
of these on
markets and
marketing
activities.
Do they present an
opportunity from
marketing
standpoint?
Find a way to seize
the opportunity.
Do they pose a
threat to
marketing efforts?
Find a way to
mitigate the
adverse effects.
Analysis of economic environment

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The document provides an overview of the performance of global and Indian markets and economic indicators in October 2021. Key points include: 1) Indian markets continued their upward momentum in October driven by India's insulation from slowdowns, stable COVID trends, government reforms and low interest rates. 2) Within India, the real estate sector performed strongly while metals lagged. 3) COVID cases and positivity rates remained under control in India, though upcoming festivals will need close monitoring. Vaccination rates picked up in September. 4) Various economic indicators like e-way bills, vehicle registrations, mobility and power consumption show an improvement in economic activity as COVID cases decline and vaccination increases.

Basic concepts (Gross Domestic Product)
5
Consumption
(Private + Public)
Investment
(Machinery +
Construction)
Exports
(Goods + Services)
Imports
(Goods + Services)
GDP Change in
GDP
Change in
Volume
Change in
Population
Change in Real
consumption
or production
Change in
Prices
Inflation
Basic concepts (Demand-pull vs Cost-push inflation)
6
Money
Supply
Bank
Loans
Consumer
Debt
Demand
increase
Inflation
(CPI)
Wages, raw
material prices,
taxes
Cost increase
Inflation
(PPI)
Pass-through
Source: CBRT Inflation Booklet, 2004.
Real economic growth around the world in 2019
Source: IMF Data Mapper.
7
Real economic growth around the world in 2020
Source: IMF Data Mapper.
8

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Real economic growth around the world in 2022
Source: IMF Data Mapper.
9
Customer-Supplier connections after COVID-19
Source: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303g.htm
10
Impact of COVID-19 on Global Manufacturing*
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021.
* Contribution to year-over-year percent change; percentage points.
11
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21
Primary metals Machinery Electronics Electrical equipment
Motor vehicles Other durables Chemicals Petroleum
Other nondurables Total
Share of Activity Impacted by COVID-19* (%)
12
0
9
11
12
14
14
14
14
14
17
23
23
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
48
48
48
50
80
86
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Financial intermediation
Public admin
Mining and quarrying
Air transport
Electricity, gas and water supply
Land transport and transport via pipelines
Other transport
Water transport
Post and telecommunications
Education
Health and social work
Other business activities
Basic metals and fabricated metal
Oil and chemicals
Electrical and optical equipment
Food, beverages and tobacco
Machinery, nec; manufacturing, nec; recycling
Pulp, paper, printing and publishing
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Transport equipment
Wood and products of wood and cork
Retail trade
Sales repair motor vehicles
Wholesale trade
Other community, social and personal services
Construction
Hotels and restaurants
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021.
* Reflects the degree of teleworkability and each of sector’s activity.

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Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on GDP
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022
13
-1.4
-1.0
-0.9
-1.1
GSYH (% points)
Euro area OECD US World
Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Country)*
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022
* Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%).
14
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.1
-2.4
-2.5
Ireland
Luxembourg
Denmark
Iceland
France
UK
Norway
Estonia
Germany
Slovenia
Netherlands
Finland
Switzerland
EU-22
Sweden
Italy
Latvia
Spain
Avusturia
Belgium
Poland
Portugal
Czechia
Slovakia
Hungary
TÜRKİYE
Greece
Lithuania
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022
* Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%).
15
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
-2.2
-2.7
-2.7
-2.8
-3.2
-12.0
Pharmaceuticals
Construction
Water supply & waste management
Computers & electronic equipment
Warehousing
Textiles
Mining support service activities
Machinery and equipment
Food,drink and tobacco
Motor vehicles
Wood and wood products
Agriculture
Electrical equipment
Paper and printing
Fabricated metals
Rubber and plastics
Land transport
Water transport
Chemicals
Air transport
Basic metals
Mining of energy products
Electricity and gas supply
Refined petroleum products
Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Industry)*
Source: EUROSTAT, BLS.
16
Growth in selected countries (annual, %)
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1
2014Q4
2015Q3
2016Q2
2017Q1
2017Q4
2018Q3
2019Q2
2020Q1
2020Q4
2021Q3
2022Q2
US Germany France Italy UK Japan

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Inflation around the world in 2019
Source: IMF Data Mapper.
17
Inflation around the world in 2022
Source: IMF Data Mapper.
18
Bloomberg Commodity Index* ($)
Source: Bloomberg
* Maximum value reached during the month.
19
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Jan
05
Oct
05
Jul
06
Apr
07
Jan
08
Oct
08
Jul
09
Apr
10
Jan
11
Oct
11
Jul
12
Apr
13
Jan
14
Oct
14
Jul
15
Apr
16
Jan
17
Oct
17
Jul
18
Apr
19
Jan
20
Oct
20
Jul
21
Apr
22
Jan
23
Oct
23
(USD)
Commodity price indices (2010 = 100)
Source: World Bank.
20
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
Jan
05
Nov
05
Sep
06
Jul
07
May
08
Mar
09
Jan
10
Nov
10
Sep
11
Jul
12
May
13
Mar
14
Jan
15
Nov
15
Sep
16
Jul
17
May
18
Mar
19
Jan
20
Nov
20
Sep
21
Jul
22
May
23
Energy Non-energy Food Natural gas

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Freight prices* ($)
Source: https://fbx.freightos.com
* Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) provides 40' container (FEU) indices for ocean freight. .
21
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jan
17
May
17
Sep
17
Jan
18
May
18
Sep
18
Jan
19
May
19
Sep
19
Jan
20
May
20
Sep
20
Jan
21
May
21
Sep
21
Jan
22
May
22
Sep
22
Jan
23
May
23
Sep
23
Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on inflation
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022
22
2.0 2.0
1.4
2.5
Inflation (% points)
Euro area OECD US World
Commodity price shock due to Russia-Ukraine war
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022
* Percentage change from January 2022 average
23
3.5
7.4
9.1
10.0
14.1
17.0
34.8
42.2
63.4
77.3
88.4
Copper
Zinc
Platinum
Gold
Iron ore
Aluminium
Palladium
Maize
Nickel
Fertilizer
Wheat
Source: EUROSTAT, BLS.
24
Inflation in selected countries (annual, %)
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan
05
Oct
05
Jul
06
Apr
07
Jan
08
Oct
08
Jul
09
Apr
10
Jan
11
Oct
11
Jul
12
Apr
13
Jan
14
Oct
14
Jul
15
Apr
16
Jan
17
Oct
17
Jul
18
Apr
19
Jan
20
Oct
20
Jul
21
Apr
22
Jan
23
Oct
23
US Germany France Italy UK Japan

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zaman serisitürkiye ekonomisi
FED policy rate expectations*
Source: Bloomberg
*FED Funds Futures
25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
Sep
19
Dec
19
Mar
20
Jun
20
Sep
20
Dec
20
Mar
21
Jun
21
Sep
21
Dec
21
Mar
22
Jun
22
Sep
22
Dec
22
Mar
23
Jun
23
Sep
23
Dec
23
Mar
24
Jun
24
Sep
24
Dec
24
30-Sep-19 25-Mar-20 23-Sep-20 16-Mar-21 13-Dec-21
16-Jun-22 22-Sep-22 15-Dec-22 17-Mar-23
(%) (%)
26
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Response of Core Inflation to Monetary Tightening
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0 4 8 12 16 20
%
points
Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts
Uncertainty band (90%)
Impact on core inflation
27
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Response of Unemployment to Monetary Tightening
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0 4 8 12 16 20
%
points
Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts
Uncertainty band (90%)
Impact on unemployment rate
Economic policy uncertainty
28
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0 Jan
03
Jul
03
Jan
04
Jul
04
Jan
05
Jul
05
Jan
06
Jul
06
Jan
07
Jul
07
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
Jul
13
Jan
14
Jul
14
Jan
15
Jul
15
Jan
16
Jul
16
Jan
17
Jul
17
Jan
18
Jul
18
Jan
19
Jul
19
Jan
20
Jul
20
Jan
21
Jul
21
Jan
22
Jul
22
Jan
23
Jul
23
Europe US World

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analitik modellemetürkiye ekonomisidünya ekonomisi
Geopolitical risks (1985-2019=100)
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com
29
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan
05
Oct
05
Jul
06
Apr
07
Jan
08
Oct
08
Jul
09
Apr
10
Jan
11
Oct
11
Jul
12
Apr
13
Jan
14
Oct
14
Jul
15
Apr
16
Jan
17
Oct
17
Jul
18
Apr
19
Jan
20
Oct
20
Jul
21
Apr
22
Jan
23
Oct
23
Global Türkiye (right scale)
Arab
Spring
Invasion
of Crimea
Russia-Ukraine War
Source: IMF projections from WEO reports.
30
Future will always remain uncertain (growth, %)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
The end...

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ITU Institute of Social Science

  • 1. ITU Institute of Social Science March 21, 2023 Global Marketing: A Macro(economic) Perspective Prepared and Presented by: Eren OCAKVERDİ Research and Analytics Consultant eren.ocakverdi@yapikredi.com.tr
  • 2. External factors affecting a firm 2 Firm Economy Politics Social culture Legal Environment / Sustainability Technology
  • 4. 4 Determine the relevant economic factors and long- term trends. Analyse the impact of these on markets and marketing activities. Do they present an opportunity from marketing standpoint? Find a way to seize the opportunity. Do they pose a threat to marketing efforts? Find a way to mitigate the adverse effects. Analysis of economic environment
  • 5. Basic concepts (Gross Domestic Product) 5 Consumption (Private + Public) Investment (Machinery + Construction) Exports (Goods + Services) Imports (Goods + Services) GDP Change in GDP Change in Volume Change in Population Change in Real consumption or production Change in Prices Inflation
  • 6. Basic concepts (Demand-pull vs Cost-push inflation) 6 Money Supply Bank Loans Consumer Debt Demand increase Inflation (CPI) Wages, raw material prices, taxes Cost increase Inflation (PPI) Pass-through Source: CBRT Inflation Booklet, 2004.
  • 7. Real economic growth around the world in 2019 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 7
  • 8. Real economic growth around the world in 2020 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 8
  • 9. Real economic growth around the world in 2022 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 9
  • 10. Customer-Supplier connections after COVID-19 Source: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303g.htm 10
  • 11. Impact of COVID-19 on Global Manufacturing* Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021. * Contribution to year-over-year percent change; percentage points. 11 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Primary metals Machinery Electronics Electrical equipment Motor vehicles Other durables Chemicals Petroleum Other nondurables Total
  • 12. Share of Activity Impacted by COVID-19* (%) 12 0 9 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 17 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 48 48 48 50 80 86 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Financial intermediation Public admin Mining and quarrying Air transport Electricity, gas and water supply Land transport and transport via pipelines Other transport Water transport Post and telecommunications Education Health and social work Other business activities Basic metals and fabricated metal Oil and chemicals Electrical and optical equipment Food, beverages and tobacco Machinery, nec; manufacturing, nec; recycling Pulp, paper, printing and publishing Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products Transport equipment Wood and products of wood and cork Retail trade Sales repair motor vehicles Wholesale trade Other community, social and personal services Construction Hotels and restaurants Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021. * Reflects the degree of teleworkability and each of sector’s activity.
  • 13. Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on GDP Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 13 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 GSYH (% points) Euro area OECD US World
  • 14. Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Country)* Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%). 14 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 Ireland Luxembourg Denmark Iceland France UK Norway Estonia Germany Slovenia Netherlands Finland Switzerland EU-22 Sweden Italy Latvia Spain Avusturia Belgium Poland Portugal Czechia Slovakia Hungary TÜRKİYE Greece Lithuania
  • 15. Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%). 15 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -12.0 Pharmaceuticals Construction Water supply & waste management Computers & electronic equipment Warehousing Textiles Mining support service activities Machinery and equipment Food,drink and tobacco Motor vehicles Wood and wood products Agriculture Electrical equipment Paper and printing Fabricated metals Rubber and plastics Land transport Water transport Chemicals Air transport Basic metals Mining of energy products Electricity and gas supply Refined petroleum products Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Industry)*
  • 16. Source: EUROSTAT, BLS. 16 Growth in selected countries (annual, %) -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2015Q3 2016Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q3 2019Q2 2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q3 2022Q2 US Germany France Italy UK Japan
  • 17. Inflation around the world in 2019 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 17
  • 18. Inflation around the world in 2022 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 18
  • 19. Bloomberg Commodity Index* ($) Source: Bloomberg * Maximum value reached during the month. 19 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 (USD)
  • 20. Commodity price indices (2010 = 100) Source: World Bank. 20 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 Jan 05 Nov 05 Sep 06 Jul 07 May 08 Mar 09 Jan 10 Nov 10 Sep 11 Jul 12 May 13 Mar 14 Jan 15 Nov 15 Sep 16 Jul 17 May 18 Mar 19 Jan 20 Nov 20 Sep 21 Jul 22 May 23 Energy Non-energy Food Natural gas
  • 21. Freight prices* ($) Source: https://fbx.freightos.com * Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) provides 40' container (FEU) indices for ocean freight. . 21 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 May 18 Sep 18 Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21 Sep 21 Jan 22 May 22 Sep 22 Jan 23 May 23 Sep 23
  • 22. Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on inflation Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 22 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.5 Inflation (% points) Euro area OECD US World
  • 23. Commodity price shock due to Russia-Ukraine war Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Percentage change from January 2022 average 23 3.5 7.4 9.1 10.0 14.1 17.0 34.8 42.2 63.4 77.3 88.4 Copper Zinc Platinum Gold Iron ore Aluminium Palladium Maize Nickel Fertilizer Wheat
  • 24. Source: EUROSTAT, BLS. 24 Inflation in selected countries (annual, %) -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 US Germany France Italy UK Japan
  • 25. FED policy rate expectations* Source: Bloomberg *FED Funds Futures 25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23 Jun 23 Sep 23 Dec 23 Mar 24 Jun 24 Sep 24 Dec 24 30-Sep-19 25-Mar-20 23-Sep-20 16-Mar-21 13-Dec-21 16-Jun-22 22-Sep-22 15-Dec-22 17-Mar-23 (%) (%)
  • 26. 26 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021 Response of Core Inflation to Monetary Tightening -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0 4 8 12 16 20 % points Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts Uncertainty band (90%) Impact on core inflation
  • 27. 27 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021 Response of Unemployment to Monetary Tightening -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 0 4 8 12 16 20 % points Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts Uncertainty band (90%) Impact on unemployment rate
  • 28. Economic policy uncertainty 28 Source: www.policyuncertainty.com 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23 Jul 23 Europe US World
  • 29. Geopolitical risks (1985-2019=100) Source: www.policyuncertainty.com 29 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 Global Türkiye (right scale) Arab Spring Invasion of Crimea Russia-Ukraine War
  • 30. Source: IMF projections from WEO reports. 30 Future will always remain uncertain (growth, %) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22