Improve Your Team: Explore Cognitive Bias
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Dan Neumann presented on cognitive biases and strategies to overcome them. He discussed several biases like anchoring, optimism bias, and availability bias. He explained how these biases can negatively impact decision making. Neumann provided mitigation strategies for each bias like considering alternative explanations, researching thoroughly, and getting outside opinions. The presentation emphasized being aware of cognitive biases as the first step towards debiasing thinking and decision making processes.
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Improve Your Team: Explore Cognitive Bias
- 1. P re s e n t e d b y Improve Your Team Explore Cognitive Bias Dan Neumann AgileDC 2016
- 3. Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. • agilethought.com • dan.neumann@agilethought.com • linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann • @DanRNeumann • slideshare.net/DanRNeumann • 574-514-3285 • neumanagementllc.com/blog/
- 4. Imagine…
- 5. Anchoring •Over-Weight the First Information •Make Decisions while Anchored •Especially a problem under pressure https://www.flickr.com/photos/chris_cardew/ •Planning Poker •Silent Writing •Start with “Why” •Sleep on it More Reasearch on Anchoring: http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~gbc/fragile.pdf
- 7. Imagine…
- 8. Optimism Bias Generally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events. 8
- 9. Optimism Bias and Selective Updating Representative of Group 1: Learns the actual chance is 50% 9 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 Representative of Group 2: Learns the actual chance is 10% Believes chance of cancer is 30% New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%
- 10. 10 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 It’s Biological
- 11. Combat: Make The Processing More Complex “Beyond Budgeting” •Estimate •Budget •Expected outcome 11 For more, look up videos by Bjarte Bogsnes
- 12. Debiasing: Multiple Explanation 1. “Consider the Opposite” 2. Consider any Alternative 3. Alternative Plausibility 12 http://bit.ly/MultipleExplanation
- 13. Related to Planning Fallacy Planning Fallacy: We underestimate future tasks. Address Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting http://bit.ly/IntuitivePrediction “Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures” Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
- 14. Availability Bias •We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example •In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick. 14
- 15. Combating Availability Bias •Research •Beware the most recent/memorable •Personas •Experiments 15
- 16. Two Categories 16 https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/ Ego BiasInformation Bias Anchoring Optimism Availability
- 17. Illusory Superiority The “Above Average” Bias 17 Image: http://bit.ly/20qozUI For More on Driver Perception: http://bit.ly/GoodDrivers
- 18. Attribution Bias 18 My Your Success Failure *Not true of all cultures Innate Abilities Circumstances Bad Luck Incompetence
- 19. Dunning-Kruger Effect 19 Unskilled Highly Skilled Self- Assessment Side-Effect Overestimated Underestimated Overconfidence Frustration with Others
- 20. Moderating Ego Bias Create Safety “Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm Kerth Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review
- 21. Moderating Ego Bias •Model Getting Feedback •Evaluate the work, not the individual •Bring Data •Broaden your perspective
- 22. In-Group/Out-Group Bias • Positive characters ascribed to their own group • Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups • Especially when competing for resources! 22 Mitigation Strategies: • Get a broader definition of “my group” • Address the resource scarcity
- 23. Choice-Supportive Bias •Highlight positive attributes of our selection •Downplay positive attributes of alternatives 23 Mitigation Strategies: •Regular Reviews •Engage with outsiders
- 24. Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside Bias”) •Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses •Co-opt Ambiguity 24 Mitigation Strategies: •Additional Opinions •Seek to disprove •“Yes, and…”
- 25. Social Desirability Bias •Over-report “good” behavior •Underreport “bad” 25
- 26. Hawthorne Effect People tend to behave differently when they are being observed. 26 Use it for Advantage: •Video during meetings •Sprint Reviews
- 29. Agony by wallsdontlie Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk
- 30. What about the bias against creativity? • Beware Uncertainty! • Promotes negative attitudes toward creativity • Makes creativity hard to recognize • 95% made explicit statements about supporting Creativity • Experiment showed high correlation to words like “Vomit” “Poison” and “Agony” 30 Mueller, Jennifer S.; Melwani, Shimul; and Goncalo, Jack A., "The Bias Against Creativity: Why People Desire But Reject Creative Ideas" (2011). Articles & Chapters. Paper 450. http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/articles/450
- 32. We discussed: Anchoring Optimism Bias Availability Bias Illusory Superiority Attribution Bias Dunning-Kruger Effect In-Group/Out-Group Choice-Supportive Confirmation Social Desirability Hawthorne Effect Bias Against Creativity 32
- 33. Summary of Strategies • Show your cards all at once: • Planning Poker • Silent Writing • Start with “Why” • Sleep on it • Make the issue more complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting) • Multiple Explanation • Reference Class Forecasting • Research • Experiments • Personas • Create Safety • Model Getting Feedback • Bring Data • Evaluate the work, not the individual • Broaden your perspective • Broaden the definition of “My Group" • Address the sense of resource scarcity • Review your choices. • Include outsiders • Create additional options • Yes, And • Take advantage of Hawthorne Effect • Reduce Uncertainty to allow for Creativity
- 34. Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. • agilethought.com • dan.neumann@agilethought.com • linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann • @DanRNeumann • slideshare.net/DanRNeumann • 574-514-3285 • neumanagementllc.com/blog/
- 35. Blind Spot Bias Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less biased than the average American When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment 35
- 36. Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. • agilethought.com • dan.neumann@agilethought.com • linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann • @DanRNeumann • slideshare.net/DanRNeumann • 574-514-3285 • neumanagementllc.com/blog/