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ICWES15 - A Digital Future and Resource Depletion. Presented by Jackie M Carpenter, UK

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Engineers Australia
Engineers Australia

The document discusses how society has become dependent on cheap oil and other finite resources to fuel technological advancement. As these resources become depleted and more expensive to obtain, major changes will be required. Three potential stories are outlined: 1) Things will continue as normal, 2) Changes will happen faster than expected requiring adaptations like working from home more, and 3) A more sustainable system must be adopted emphasizing community and local resources over growth. The third story suggests a future that embraces older sustainable cultures and values cooperation with nature over wealth accumulation. Significant challenges remain in developing appropriate technologies to support this new Digital Age.

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A Digital Future and Resource Depletion by Jackie Carpenter BSc CEng MIMechE 22 July 2011 ICWES15 Adelaide
 
The Digital Age is new Computers were not around when I was born in 1950 I didn’t see a PC until I was in my 30’s We didn’t have microprocessors in washing machines, cars and printers We didn’t have printers! And no mobile phones either!
Resource depletion - oil Everything has changed fast in my life Cheap oil has fuelled the changes Faster and faster! But the oil won’t last for much longer It is a finite resource (one of many finite resources)
“ Peak Oil” is a big issue
Why is Peak Oil important? The peak for conventional oil was declared to be 2006 last year by WEO Our society and economy depends on oil for transport, food, medicine We could change to other energy sources, but we are not changing fast 1 gram of silicon chip needs 630 grams of fossil fuel
Peak Oil in Australia Your life-style includes driving huge distances, currently using oil You rely on oil-powered ships to export coal, sugar etc. If the economies of other countries collapse because of oil shortages, your markets will collapse
The oil age We are not “running out” of oil At the peak, half is left But the first half was cheap and easy The second half will be expensive and hard-to-get Competition from China etc too Tar sands, shales, deep-water - all expensive and hard-to-get
 
Wait! “Peak Oil” is a myth! As energy shortages develop, we will find new sources of energy People are clever; technology will solve all our problems The current recession is temporary and we will soon be “back to normal”
Not a myth, but a new story We tell ourselves stories We tell ourselves that next year is going to be the same as last year Well, not quite the same, the details will be different But we shall still drive about, have mobile phones and use computers. Won’t we? That is the first story.
A second story Here is a second story The future will change faster than my life has changed so far The only certainty is uncertainty We will stop driving about in petrol cars - that at least is certain. (Is it?) The Digital Age will continue
The second story Will computers stay with us? Yes! As the price of petrol goes up, everyone will work from home more Less transport will reduce climate change problems We shall use our digital know-how to increase efficiency and develop green technologies
The second story More working-from-home will benefit women Perhaps women will be more flexible, quicker to change and adapt? Perhaps women will benefit from the “end of office politics”? Perhaps we can drive the changes and set the salaries?
Helicopter vision Is there a third story?
Not just oil shortages The Earth is finite All non-renewable materials are finite Computers, digital devices and other new technologies need materials that are in short supply Important materials include gold, silver, platinum, indium, gallium, lithium and rare earths. And water
 
Lead, copper, zinc
Gold
Lithium World resources are 9,813 k tonnes (7,500 of these are in Chile) That’s 1.5 kg per person Not much for my laptop batteries, electric car and mobile phones! Wikipedia says “used for disposable batteries” What about my grandsons?
 
Rare earths
Third story The end of economic growth Instead, growth in happiness
 
 
 
 
 
Older cultures Tribes of 50 - 100 people Lived in the present. Free, no slavery. Didn’t build up wealth Considered themselves to be part of the world, part of Nature They believed their destiny was to cooperate with the rest of creation Sustainable. Existed for 50,000 years
Community The third story could be a return to the sustainable Older Culture way Going forward to a new future, not going backwards Living in Community Local food and energy Good local technology
Trelay Community
The third story Will computers stay with us? Maybe.
The third story The beginning of a more sustainable Digital Age Great efforts to make computers locally, with local materials New attitude to long life and re-use Determination to maintain the web
The third story – challenges! Can we develop the technology to transmit power without wires - soon? Can we find a way to make silicon chips on a small scale with low energy and water inputs? Can we make computers that will last 100 years?
The third story The female way of thinking will become more important than the male way of thinking
A fourth story?
Doom for the human species!
“ At last they’ve gone!”
Jackie Carpenter Trelay Farm, St Gennys, Bude, Cornwall [email_address]

More Related Content

ICWES15 - A Digital Future and Resource Depletion. Presented by Jackie M Carpenter, UK

  • 1. A Digital Future and Resource Depletion by Jackie Carpenter BSc CEng MIMechE 22 July 2011 ICWES15 Adelaide
  • 2.  
  • 3. The Digital Age is new Computers were not around when I was born in 1950 I didn’t see a PC until I was in my 30’s We didn’t have microprocessors in washing machines, cars and printers We didn’t have printers! And no mobile phones either!
  • 4. Resource depletion - oil Everything has changed fast in my life Cheap oil has fuelled the changes Faster and faster! But the oil won’t last for much longer It is a finite resource (one of many finite resources)
  • 5. “ Peak Oil” is a big issue
  • 6. Why is Peak Oil important? The peak for conventional oil was declared to be 2006 last year by WEO Our society and economy depends on oil for transport, food, medicine We could change to other energy sources, but we are not changing fast 1 gram of silicon chip needs 630 grams of fossil fuel
  • 7. Peak Oil in Australia Your life-style includes driving huge distances, currently using oil You rely on oil-powered ships to export coal, sugar etc. If the economies of other countries collapse because of oil shortages, your markets will collapse
  • 8. The oil age We are not “running out” of oil At the peak, half is left But the first half was cheap and easy The second half will be expensive and hard-to-get Competition from China etc too Tar sands, shales, deep-water - all expensive and hard-to-get
  • 9.  
  • 10. Wait! “Peak Oil” is a myth! As energy shortages develop, we will find new sources of energy People are clever; technology will solve all our problems The current recession is temporary and we will soon be “back to normal”
  • 11. Not a myth, but a new story We tell ourselves stories We tell ourselves that next year is going to be the same as last year Well, not quite the same, the details will be different But we shall still drive about, have mobile phones and use computers. Won’t we? That is the first story.
  • 12. A second story Here is a second story The future will change faster than my life has changed so far The only certainty is uncertainty We will stop driving about in petrol cars - that at least is certain. (Is it?) The Digital Age will continue
  • 13. The second story Will computers stay with us? Yes! As the price of petrol goes up, everyone will work from home more Less transport will reduce climate change problems We shall use our digital know-how to increase efficiency and develop green technologies
  • 14. The second story More working-from-home will benefit women Perhaps women will be more flexible, quicker to change and adapt? Perhaps women will benefit from the “end of office politics”? Perhaps we can drive the changes and set the salaries?
  • 15. Helicopter vision Is there a third story?
  • 16. Not just oil shortages The Earth is finite All non-renewable materials are finite Computers, digital devices and other new technologies need materials that are in short supply Important materials include gold, silver, platinum, indium, gallium, lithium and rare earths. And water
  • 17.  
  • 19. Gold
  • 20. Lithium World resources are 9,813 k tonnes (7,500 of these are in Chile) That’s 1.5 kg per person Not much for my laptop batteries, electric car and mobile phones! Wikipedia says “used for disposable batteries” What about my grandsons?
  • 21.  
  • 23. Third story The end of economic growth Instead, growth in happiness
  • 24.  
  • 25.  
  • 26.  
  • 27.  
  • 28.  
  • 29. Older cultures Tribes of 50 - 100 people Lived in the present. Free, no slavery. Didn’t build up wealth Considered themselves to be part of the world, part of Nature They believed their destiny was to cooperate with the rest of creation Sustainable. Existed for 50,000 years
  • 30. Community The third story could be a return to the sustainable Older Culture way Going forward to a new future, not going backwards Living in Community Local food and energy Good local technology
  • 32. The third story Will computers stay with us? Maybe.
  • 33. The third story The beginning of a more sustainable Digital Age Great efforts to make computers locally, with local materials New attitude to long life and re-use Determination to maintain the web
  • 34. The third story – challenges! Can we develop the technology to transmit power without wires - soon? Can we find a way to make silicon chips on a small scale with low energy and water inputs? Can we make computers that will last 100 years?
  • 35. The third story The female way of thinking will become more important than the male way of thinking
  • 37. Doom for the human species!
  • 38. “ At last they’ve gone!”
  • 39. Jackie Carpenter Trelay Farm, St Gennys, Bude, Cornwall [email_address]