From trends to drivers @daniel egger
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A summary of the key changes that we use in our innovation and foresight projects. Drivers, trends, Attractors, Gray Swans...each of them has its benefits and downfalls.
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From trends to drivers @daniel egger
- 1. Which types of change do you use? by Daniel Egger
- 3. With contributions and insights from such renowned thinkers and doers as Aga Szóstek, Artur Arsénio, Diogo Dutra, Erica Orange, Érico Fileno, Harry West, Jeffrey Tjendra, Luis Gustavo, Malcolm Ryder, Maria Paula Oliveira, Mark Storm, Mattia Crespi and Norman Wang.
- 4. ...is about variety of information and uncertainty. We might argue that the present defines the future, assume a ceteris- paribusview of the world—focusing on just one variable in change— and ignore the rest, or simplify the paths of possible change. But this is a fallacy(!), as the present and future are complex, and much will remain unknown.
- 5. The exploration of an interplay between chaos and order. If this is possible, everything will be different. The world is in change. Something is going on.
- 6. Reality is a soup of possibilities of infinite elements. These small entities are completely fluid. Each day, new variables die and are born. Some stay isolated or inactive; others connect and become part of a larger shift. What we perceive of the world defines our “ truth”guiding our decisions and how we imagine the future.
- 7. When we perceive change we see variables moving. When variables move we call them vectors. They represent potential shifts forming…yet with unknown longer-term implications. We can use them as early- warning system or for Cool Hunting— spotting of short living cultural trends— and explores fast-changing elements such as color, style and forms.
- 8. Trends allow us to investigate different contexts. If variables from increasingly heterogeneous contexts move in the same directionand get momentum, then we talk about Trends. Trends are not the final delivery of a foresight process, but more represent the starting pointto navigate and question further.
- 9. Trends are not the final delivery of a foresight process. Only if we understand whatdrives thetrend, contextualize it and explore implications, will its potential for the organization unfold. But time pressures and resource restrictions often limit the process to high-level summaries. With thousands of organizations using the same “summarized” information, the strategic potential of trends is limited.
- 10. A bundle of changes that define a critical transformation. Drivers are a combination of several trends, early signs, and events (shocks), and share a common characteristic—a momentum, moving together in a similar direction. They also represent structures with the highestprobability of change.
- 11. A “gravitational force” of changes. Attractors don’t draw attention, but instead slowlyaccumulateor move…this can change abruptly. They might be triggered from many different developments, such as a technological breakthrough, new commercial applications, an increasing community, or media attention.
- 12. Briefly summarize the five key types. There are more
- 13. Each change always creates counter-movements. Any change creates counter- movements, forces formed by people who don’tsharethe same logic and values—individuals who perceive reality differently. And their actions might have relevant implications for the change, an the research.
- 14. We know not the future, but about certain events. Structural Certainties represent mostly large “scheduled” international projects or happenings such as huge scientific projects, conventions or sporting events, which have a set date with an outcome that changesthe statusquo.
- 15. When an event changes everything. Black Swans—not knowable, low- probability but high-impact events—can change the logic of society fast. Where Black Swans are impossible to predict, Gray Swans are to a certain level. Depending on the industry each have positiveor negative implication, the event itself is neutral.