This document provides information on forecasting for SEO, including predicting organic traffic, analyzing potential income, studying required investment, and tracking predictions over time. It discusses estimating click-through rates and conversion rates based on past research. It also shows how to analyze keywords, predict timescales to achieve rankings, calculate required investment, and estimate potential income. Finally, it demonstrates building a profit and loss plan in Excel to forecast SEO performance and ROI over 1-2 years, including tracking metrics like positions and revenue over time.
2. Who am I?
Who am I? Neil Walker
URL: www.seomad.com
Twitter: @theukseo
Current Position:
• Owner of SEO Consultancy Firm SEO MAD LTD
Background:
• Chief technical Officer (CTO) for Just Search Ltd
Experience
• Worked or been involved with SEO for over
2500 clients in the UK and nearly 5000 clients
for Pan Europe.
3. Learning Objectives
The purpose of this seminar is to show you how to
create a factual SEO Business Plan / Case by:
1. Predicting organic traffic to your website
2. Analysing the potential income
3. Studying the investment required
4. Working out profit & loss for your business
plan.
5. Carrying out ongoing tracking of your
predictions
6. Looking at long term goals by reviewing the
potential from ranking between positions 10-
5 against 3-1.
8. Organic Click Through Rates
(Eye Tracking 2004)
People have been interested in
CTR for many years.
This image was highlighted by
SEO Researcher.com based on
research from Cornell
University from 2004
9. Organic Click Through Rates
(AOL 2006)
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CTR
Position in Google
CTR vs. Organic Position
August of 2006 AOL leaked millions of search records
10. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.1
This month GWT enhanced
their Top Search Query
Function.
At Just Search we compiled
sample data from 100
clients across 1500 key
phrases.
11. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.2
We took the data and also segmented in by Key Phrase length, again this revealed
some interesting information about ranking No.1
12. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.3
Finally we took the data and segmented by Brand, General, Location and Specific
Product key word searches.
13. Organic CTR
From the collated data we can now
make an educated guess at the
Click Through Rate if your website
ranks on the first page for a given
keyword
Position 2-10 = CTR 4.85%
15. Website Conversion Rates Pt1
PPC is a good way to find out your website’s conversion rate, however if you do not have
this luxury, there are a number of sources which can give you an idea of Average
Conversion rates.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Low Typical WCR High Typical WCR Low Finance WCR High Finance WCR Low E-commerce High E-commerce Average
Conversionrate
Type of Website
Website Conversion Rates
16. Website Conversion Rates Pt2
We also researched the Google Analytics accounts for the data of13 websites over a
total of 166,699 keywords.
17. Website Conversion Rates Pt3
From the collated data we can now make
an educated guess at the conversion rate
of a website
Average Conversion Rate = 2.9%
19. Keyword Analysis Pt.1
Use a tool to give you the predicted traffic i.e.
1. https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
2. Microsoft-advertising-intelligence
3. https://adwords.google.com/o/Targeting/Explorer
20. Keyword Analysis Pt.2
Take a look at your competitors, their demographic, what
keywords they are trying to rank for useful tools for this are:
1. www.semrush.com
2. www.keywordspy.com
3. www.alexa.com
4. www.google.com/adplanner
21. Keyword Analysis Pt.3
We now have the following data:
CTR on Ranking Organically between 2-10
Average Website Conversion Rate
Exact predicted Monthly Traffic per keyword
We now need:
Potential Timescale to gain results
Average Gross Profit per service / product.
Average Order Values
23. Predicting Timescales Pt1
This requires expertise!!
-If you’re client-side, then get estimated timescales from a
potential SEO provider
-If you’re agency-side, then look at all the factors required to
gain a ranking and use your experience to predict a timeline.
Ranking Factors
Age of site No. of pages
No. of links Type of keyword
Type of competition Internal linking
Resource required On Page Work
26. Investment Required
Again client-side – You will get potential cost from
your SEO Provider.
Agency-side – You need to think about:
Investment factors
On Page Work Required
Link Building Budgets
Link Acquisition Hours
Content Writing Costs
Offline Investment Costs
27. Potential Income
Finally, to put your business plan together
you need to know your potential Gross Profit
%.
Either an average GP
Or even better a GP per product.
You will also need to look at your potential
Average Order Values or Product / Service
Prices
Carry out market research
E-commerce site / service site
28. Quick Overview
You should now have the following data:
First Page CTR
Website Conversion Rate
Potential Keywords & Traffic
Predicted Timescales
Investment Required
Average Order Value
Average Gross Profit
31. Pivot Table
Create a Pivot Table
Analyse the potential
income you will start
receiving for each
keyword for each
month.
Row Labels 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
trainers £7,812
running shoes £2,132
puma trainers £1,813
trainers sale £173
sportswear £830
crocs £4,045
football boots £5,701
nike trainers £2,956
reebok trainers £754
golf shoes £3,134
basketball shoes £954
sale trainers £31
sports clothing £248
england away shirt £89
karrimor £1,002
tennis rackets £724
football tops £367
adidas predator football boots £166
sports wear £191
Grand Total £414 £1,979 £1,410 £8,222 £724 £6,703 £1,813 £11,856
32. Investment
Your SEO Company advises it will cost you
£2500 pcm
Will you make a profit?
How long will it take you to break even?
How long will it take to pay back your investment?
37. Ongoing Tracking
1. Use Google Analytics
2. Set up Conversion Goals
3. Set up Goal Funnels
4. Set up E-commerce tracking (if applicable)
5. Set up Webmaster tools and monitor CTR
6. Set up web ranking reports to monitor positions
This will allow you to track the Business Plan you are
working towards
38. Google Analytics
– Custom Reporting Pt.1
You can drill down by Source, then display:
Visits
Transaction
Product Revenue
By Keyword.
This tells you which keywords are making
money!
41. Predictions vs.. Actual Data
Subject Prediction Real Data
(Month 11)
Difference
Visits for keywords 25,829 24,619 - 1,210
No. of sales 749 1,022 + 273
Average CTR 4.85% 10.26% + 5.41%
Average Conversion
Rate
2.90% 5.12% + 2.22%
Income £33,120 £83,085 + £49,965
Average Order Value £44 £68 +£24
45. Traffic vs.. Investment
12 months later you are ranking on the first page
Average Ranking positions of 10 to 5.
How much is a top 2 position worth to you?
How much are you willing to spend?
46. Traffic vs.. Investment
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
6-10 5 4 3 2 1
Increase in Traffic vs.. Increase in
Investment
Traffic Increase %
Investment Increase %
23 x more traffic in No.1
5.6 x more traffic in No.2
3.7 x more traffic in No.3
It is very likely that
companies may need to
double or triple SEO
budgets to gain
positions 1 & 2, this is
well worth it!
48. Learning Objectives - Recap
Information
Predicting Organic Traffic to your website
Analysing the Potential Income
Studying the investment required
Working out profit & loss for your Business Plan.
Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions
Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from
ranking between positions 10-5 against 3-1.