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DESPERATELY
SEEKING THEORY
Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a
Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design
#GamifIR 2016
Sebastian Deterding
@dingstweets
<1>
the challenge
we are stuck in a groundhog day
“does gamification work?”
MU
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ewanrayment/1250158647
Desperately Seeking Theory: Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design
“does medicine work?”
some better questions
What active substance in what dosage affects what
condition under what circumstances? How?
Do 500 mg of orally administered acetylsalicylic acid
affect migraine in adult chronic migraine patients?
How?
Do publicly displayed achievements linked to
publicly known as hard-to-attain goals support goal-
setting in achievement-oriented individuals? How?
To ask such
questions, we need
theory
what is theory? (a quick refresh)
A theory is a set of statements
expressing a nomological network
of constructs and their relations. It
is tied to observable phenomena
through operationalisations.
Whitney, Kite & Adams, 2013; Cronbah & Meehl, 1955
why theory? (a quick refresh)
Whitney, Kite & Adams, 2013
• Allows to describe, explain,
predict, and control reality
• Allows to systematically organise
and extend knowledge
without theory, no science
how do cognitive
states
affect
behaviour
affectdesign
features
?
This is a
grandquestion inviting a new
science of design
the current basic mediation model
design
element 2
magic
motivation! behaviour
design
element 1
design
element 3
e.g. Hamari, Koivisto & Sarsa, 2014
the state of gamification theory
our biblical texts
So where is the
issue?
design
element 2
magic
motivation! behaviour
design
element 1
design
element 3
the issues with
design elements
the state of gamification theory
“… a certain Chinese encyclopaedia entitled
‘Celestial Empire of benevolent Knowledge’.
In its remote pages it is written that the
animals are divided into: (a) belonging to the
emperor, (b) embalmed, (c) tame, (d) sucking
pigs (e) sirens, (f) fabulous, (g) stray dogs, (h)
included in the present classification, (i)
frenzied, (j) innumerable, (k) drawn with a
very fine camelhair brush, (l) et cetera, (m)
having just broken the water pitcher, (n) that
from a long way off look like flies.”
issue
#1
we have chinese encyclopaedias
Desperately Seeking Theory: Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design
badges
points
leader
boards
levels
feedbackcleargoals
reward
progress
challenge
story/
theme
when is “a badge” a badge?
issue
#2
all exegesis, no discovery of new species
issue
#3
we’re stuck on low-level design features
issue
#3a
Deterding et al., 2011
where the
action is
we need a linné
an empirically grounded, well-operationalised,
well-formed taxonomy of design elements
this is a massive undertaking
design
element 2
magic
motivation! behaviour
design
element 1
design
element 3
the issues with
motivational processes
issue
#1
motives are multiple
johnmarshall reeve
»Motivation’s new paradigm is one in
which behavior is energized and directed
not by a single grand cause but, instead,
by a multitude of multilevel and coacting
influences.«
understanding motivation & emotion (2009: 45)
gaming motives
Competence
Autonomy
Relatedness
Meaning
Curiosity
Absorption (»flow«)
Control beliefs
Goal-setting
Recognition, belonging, power
Identity/Self
Emotions
Habituation
…
design
element 1
design
element 2
design
element 3
behaviour
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
Aparicio et al., 2012
Sailer et al., 2013 Zhang, 2008
Zichermann&
Cunningham,2011
none of this is empirically tested
issue
#2
(Another massive undertaking)
Elements are multi-functional
Antin & Churchill 2011
goal-settinginstruction
group identification
status
reputation
issue
#3
design
element 1
design
element 2
design
element 3
behaviour
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
feedback
appraised as
controlling
thwarts
autonomy
motivation
appraised as
informing
supports
competence
+
–
motivational function is an appraisal
issue
#4
Deci & Ryan 2001
design
element 1
design
element 2
design
element 3
behaviour
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
appraisal
motivation and appraisal are contextual
issue
#5
Reeve, 2006
license to reconfigure & leave
Deterding, 2016
minimised consequence
Deterding, 2016
situation
element 1-n
design
element 1
design
element 2
behaviour
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
appraisal
situation
different people, different motives
issue
#6
trait level
Croson & Gneezy, 2000
state level
Bowman & Tamborini, 2013
situation
element 1-n
design
element 1
design
element 2
behaviour
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
appraisal
situation
person
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8147452@N05/2913356030/sizes/o/
motivational function is systemic-dynamic
issue
#7
AestheticsMechanics Dynamics
Hunicke, LeBlanc & Zubek
mda: a formal approach to game design (2004)
Monopoly
aesthetic
Frustrating
end game
mechanic dynamic
Slow
poverty gap
+$ !+
-$ !-
Difficulty
Skill/Time
frustration
boredom
function is a dynamic person-situation relation
»flow«
points badges leaderboards
Tracking, Feedback Goals, surprise Competition
we focus on features …
when we should look at how features in relation
to dispositions afford motivational functions
Difficulty
Skill/Time
frustration
boredom
»flow«
e.g. balanced challenge
Csikszentmihalyi, 1990
http://www.flickr.com/photos/amrufm/2593920251/sizes/z/in/photostream/
e.g. curiosity
Silva, 2006
http://www.flickr.com/photos/amrufm/2593920251/sizes/z/in/photostream/
e.g. Meaningfulness
Wong, 2012
motivational affordance
The complex of necessary and sufficient
relations of actor dispositions and
environment features that render an
action or event functionally significant for
a specific motive
Deterding, under review
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
appraisal
p/s relation
affordance 1
p/s relation
affordance 2
p/s relation
affordance 3
behaviour
<2>
the opportunity
Kramer,Guillory&Hancock,2015
not that opportunity
jad abumrad
»Facebook has created a
laboratory of human behavior
the likes of which we’ve never
seen.«
the trust engineers (2015)
At any moment, software
companies are running
millions of a/B tests
to optimise user engagement,
each of which is an
experiment in waiting
the scale for a massive undertaking
design is being automated
Desperately Seeking Theory: Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design
But to know what to test &
how to automate, you need …
theory
»Online hypothesis testing can accelerate both
applied and basic Interaction Design Science by
making it fast and easy to obtain ecologically-
valid measures of the effects of designs on user
behavior. Online controlled experiments can help
build practical, generalizable, and scientifically-
validated theories of how and why designs affect
human interactions.«
derek Lomas
optimizing motivation and learning with large-
scale game design experiments (2014: 7)
derek Lomas
optimizing motivation and learning with large-
scale game design experiments (2014: 7)
Data, suggestions
Designs/tweaks
Theories,
formalisations,
indicators
Data,
indicators
researcher
designeruser
Adapted content &
interface
Experience &
behaviour data
data/ai
an example
»flow«
Difficulty
Skill/time
frustration
boredom
flow (1990)
Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi
basic
theory
Difiiculty
Skill/time
frustration
boredom
what’s the optimal curve?
Alexander, Sear & Oikonomou, 2013; Sampayo-Vargas et al., 2013; Brazil & Blau, 2014
crowdsourcing
design
application
Difficulty
Skill/time
crowdsourcing tasks are predetermined
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
Difficulty
Skill/time
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
Difficulty is unknown; identification
may obsolete crowdsourcing
crowdsourcing tasks are predetermined
Difficulty
Skill/time
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
… hence tasks are
often randomly served
crowdsourcing tasks are predetermined
%Playerretained
Time/levels
* idealised
tutorial
actual tasks
*
hence retention is very poor
Desperately Seeking Theory: Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design
Difficulty
Skill/time
How to order tasks w/o solving?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
the
question
?
?
?
Difficulty
Skill/time
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
… which requires skill concepts & indicators
player x
Pattern recognition: 7/10
Spatial rotation: 2/10
Difficulty
Skill/time
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
player x
Pattern recognition: 7/10
Spatial rotation: 2/10
… which requires difficulty concepts & indicators
task y
Pattern recognition: 7/10
Spatial rotation: 2/10
Performance data
Improvement suggestions
Task length design
Task descriptions
Initial balancing theories
Initial indicators of skill
Optimal difficulty curve
Indicators for skill, difficulty
researcher
designeruser
Task sequence &
task support & feedback
Engagement &
performance data
data/ai
<3>
summary
to get out of groundhog day …
we need to ask better questions …
to systematically build knowledge …
how do cognitive
states
affect
behaviour
affectdesign
features
?
… for a grand new science of design.
To ask such
questions, we need
theory
and we must abandon scholasticism.
we need better, empirical taxonomies …
competence
autonomy
relatedness
meaning
curiosity
...
appraisal
p/s relation
affordance 1
p/s relation
affordance 2
p/s relation
affordance 3
behaviour
… and better, empirical mechanistic models.
this is a massive undertaking …
with a matching massive opportunity.
we can be at the forefront of design evolution …
… if we loop research into the world’s largest
design lab that is running every day.
Data, suggestions
Designs/tweaks
Theories,
formalisations,
indicators
Data,
indicators
researcher
designeruser
Adapted content &
interface
Experience &
behaviour data
data/ai
sebastian@codingconduct.cc
@dingstweets
codingconduct.cc
Thank you.

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Desperately Seeking Theory: Gamification, Theory, and the Promise of a Data/AI-Driven New Science of Design