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A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies

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Srinath Perera
Srinath Perera

The document proposes an Emerging Technology Canvas (ETAC) framework to analyze emerging technologies. It is inspired by the Business Model Canvas and aims to provide a compact visual representation to capture the narrative around an emerging technology. The ETAC seeks to find the right questions to analyze technologies and understand their environment, impact, drivers, future potential and risks through a set of factors. It is presented as a tool to critically evaluate technologies and communicate insights about their adoption and development. Guidelines are provided on how to build an ETAC analysis and contribute insights to an online repository.

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Vice President, Research, WSO2 A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies Srinath Perera Work done in collaboration with Paul Fremantle (paul@wso2.com), Frank Leymann (frank@wso2.com), and Joanne Jenkins (joanne.jenkins@port.ac.uk).
Technology landscape is always shifting
Emerging technologies are the culprit ● Creating Segments ○ Web, Wifi,Touch Screen, Cloud, Opensource ● Transforming Segments ○ Virtual machines -> Containers ○ Encyclopedia -> Wikipedia ○ Telegraph -> Telephone -> Mobile Phone -> Smart Phone ○ Floppy Drive-> USB, CD -> DVD ○ LCD LED displays -> CRT ○ Taxi -> Car sharing
Not all Emerging Technologies are created equal
Understanding ETs: History
This happens yearly, but there is no widely accepted way to do it
We propose Emerging Technology Canvas (ETAC) ● A framework for us to analyze technologies ● Goals ○ Finding right questions ○ Narrative to connect those questions ○ Compact, visual representation ● Inspired by “Business Model Canvas” ○ Designed to capture a business model narrative ○ https://strategyzer.com/canvas/business-mo del-canvas
Can it be done with reasonable effort? Is there real impact? Net positive drivers Future & risks Narrative
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies
● Tries to capture the environment ● A solution to a problem later becomes a larger trend ○ E.g. Blockchain started as digital currency ● Drivers are macro level forces that aid or limits the technology
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies
● Impact from many angles ● Macro looks at industry as a whole ○ Network effects + Critical mass ■ E.g. APIs -> Apps -> APIs ○ Interactions ● Micro look at a single organization
● Explore the gap between promised and current technology ● Explore ecosystem development ○ Can it help wide adoption? ■ Tools and developers ● Friction is technical behavior that’s unlikely fixed due to technology ○ Many mistrust AI due to its potential to replace jobs
● Concepts ○ Dominant design, EU technical readiness framework, Gartner hype cycle ○ Rogers’ Five Factors which analyse adoption rates: Relative Advantage, Compatibility, Simplicity, Trialability, Observability ○ Network effects and critical mass ○ Megatrends (e.g. digitization, urbanization, globalization ...) ○ Specific technology trends (e.g. cloud computing) ○ The capital requirement, production costs, and delivery models. ○ Dependencies of the technology on other building blocks
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies
What can you do with ETAC? Critically analyze emerging technology As a tool for education As a brainstorm tool to discuss technologies (especially their impact) As a tool for communicating your thoughts about emerging technology
How to build your own analysis with ETAC ● Define the technology. ● Literature review to answer the questions asked by the ETAC. It creates findings and observations. ● In the Future and Summary sections, we draw conclusions from findings and observations. ○ Techniques discussed in "Future Section" ● Create the canvas and supporting documents to discusses your arguments.
Contribute to ETAC at github https://github.com/wso2/ETAC/
Serverless outlook based on ETAC is coming in November Subscribe to Newsletter for updates and exclusive preprints
THANK YOU wso2.com
Backup Slides
Jump to the Next Curve with Devops Enterprises are adopting devops over routine ops at a rapid rate. The primary objectives of adopting devops are to increase agility and to save more cycles so corporates can pay more attention toward innovation. Over time, WSO2 has gained an immense amount of devops experience by running their own cloud and helping customers become successful in their own cloud platforms.
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies
● Landscape and market forces shape technology competition ○ With the added complexity that the landscape changes very fast ● Global Market Outlook (internal use) ○ Categorize middleware into segments and subsegments and estimate their sizes and growth ● Global Technology Outlook (externally published) ○ A yearly critical review of emerging tech ● Goals ○ Internal understanding and planning ○ Sharing how we think about current and future markets ○ A means for dialog and feedback CTO Office
Middleware Landscape (Market Outlook) ● We identified seven segments ○ Apps ○ Integration - ESB, APIs, Messaging, Workflows ○ Observability ○ Storage - RDBMS & NoSQL ○ Infrastructure - DevOps and Orchestration ○ Security ○ IoT ● We did an exercise to estimate their size and growth (CAGR)
ObservabilityApps Integration AI & Analytics Infrastructure Security Middleware Landscape Application Platforms 4.5(7%) aPaas ESB Data Integration Analytics AI Storage Data Center Automation IoT IMG iPaas API iSaaS APM Log Analytics DevOps iDaaS Access Management Security Analytics PIM iDaaS Legend Growth>20% 10%<Growth <20% Growth<10% Increasing Growth Decreasing Growth Stream Processing CIAM 2B(25%) 1B(50%) 3.5(2%) 2.5(5%) 1B(50%) 1B(50%) 4B(25%) 3B(25%) 25(5%) 3B(5%) 40B(10%) 2.0(5%) 2B(34%) 0.5B (30%) 3B(5%) 1B (50%) 1B(30%) 1.5B(40%) 1.5B(20%) Container Orchestration
Interactions Between Segments IoT Integration InfrastructureStorage Security AI&Analytics Observability Apps
Emerging Technologies (ET) Shapes the Landscape IoT Integration InfrastructureStorage Security AI&Analytics Observability Apps Sharing Economy 3D Printing Fintech ServiceMesh Serverless Blockchain Quantum Computing Chatbots AR/VR
Understanding ETs: Gartner Hype Cycle
Understanding ETs: Carlota Perez Framework
ServiceMesh Serverless BlockChain AR/VR Chatbots Quantum Computing 3DPrinting Sharing Economy Fintech IoT AI&Analytics Apps Security Integration Observability Infra&Cloud Storage Cost Saving Agility, & Productivity Automation Communication, Integration, and Trust Loose Coupling Between Entitle Lack of Programmers Privacy Government Policy and Law Complexity Security Monopoly/ Vendor Lock-in
ServiceMesh Serverless BlockChain AR/VR Chatbots Quantum Computing 3DPrinting Sharing Economy Fintech IoT AI&Analytics Apps Security Integration Observability Infra&Cloud Storage Cost Saving Agility, & Productivity Automation Communication, Integration, and Trust Loose Coupling Between Entitle Lack of Programmers Privacy Government Policy and Law Complexity Security Monopoly/ Vendor-Lock-in Cost savings is the key driver! Everything drives integration
A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies

More Related Content

A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies

  • 1. Vice President, Research, WSO2 A Visual Canvas for Judging New Technologies Srinath Perera Work done in collaboration with Paul Fremantle (paul@wso2.com), Frank Leymann (frank@wso2.com), and Joanne Jenkins (joanne.jenkins@port.ac.uk).
  • 3. Emerging technologies are the culprit ● Creating Segments ○ Web, Wifi,Touch Screen, Cloud, Opensource ● Transforming Segments ○ Virtual machines -> Containers ○ Encyclopedia -> Wikipedia ○ Telegraph -> Telephone -> Mobile Phone -> Smart Phone ○ Floppy Drive-> USB, CD -> DVD ○ LCD LED displays -> CRT ○ Taxi -> Car sharing
  • 4. Not all Emerging Technologies are created equal
  • 6. This happens yearly, but there is no widely accepted way to do it
  • 7. We propose Emerging Technology Canvas (ETAC) ● A framework for us to analyze technologies ● Goals ○ Finding right questions ○ Narrative to connect those questions ○ Compact, visual representation ● Inspired by “Business Model Canvas” ○ Designed to capture a business model narrative ○ https://strategyzer.com/canvas/business-mo del-canvas
  • 8. Can it be done with reasonable effort? Is there real impact? Net positive drivers Future & risks Narrative
  • 11. ● Tries to capture the environment ● A solution to a problem later becomes a larger trend ○ E.g. Blockchain started as digital currency ● Drivers are macro level forces that aid or limits the technology
  • 13. ● Impact from many angles ● Macro looks at industry as a whole ○ Network effects + Critical mass ■ E.g. APIs -> Apps -> APIs ○ Interactions ● Micro look at a single organization
  • 14. ● Explore the gap between promised and current technology ● Explore ecosystem development ○ Can it help wide adoption? ■ Tools and developers ● Friction is technical behavior that’s unlikely fixed due to technology ○ Many mistrust AI due to its potential to replace jobs
  • 15. ● Concepts ○ Dominant design, EU technical readiness framework, Gartner hype cycle ○ Rogers’ Five Factors which analyse adoption rates: Relative Advantage, Compatibility, Simplicity, Trialability, Observability ○ Network effects and critical mass ○ Megatrends (e.g. digitization, urbanization, globalization ...) ○ Specific technology trends (e.g. cloud computing) ○ The capital requirement, production costs, and delivery models. ○ Dependencies of the technology on other building blocks
  • 17. What can you do with ETAC? Critically analyze emerging technology As a tool for education As a brainstorm tool to discuss technologies (especially their impact) As a tool for communicating your thoughts about emerging technology
  • 18. How to build your own analysis with ETAC ● Define the technology. ● Literature review to answer the questions asked by the ETAC. It creates findings and observations. ● In the Future and Summary sections, we draw conclusions from findings and observations. ○ Techniques discussed in "Future Section" ● Create the canvas and supporting documents to discusses your arguments.
  • 19. Contribute to ETAC at github https://github.com/wso2/ETAC/
  • 20. Serverless outlook based on ETAC is coming in November Subscribe to Newsletter for updates and exclusive preprints
  • 23. Jump to the Next Curve with Devops Enterprises are adopting devops over routine ops at a rapid rate. The primary objectives of adopting devops are to increase agility and to save more cycles so corporates can pay more attention toward innovation. Over time, WSO2 has gained an immense amount of devops experience by running their own cloud and helping customers become successful in their own cloud platforms.
  • 25. ● Landscape and market forces shape technology competition ○ With the added complexity that the landscape changes very fast ● Global Market Outlook (internal use) ○ Categorize middleware into segments and subsegments and estimate their sizes and growth ● Global Technology Outlook (externally published) ○ A yearly critical review of emerging tech ● Goals ○ Internal understanding and planning ○ Sharing how we think about current and future markets ○ A means for dialog and feedback CTO Office
  • 26. Middleware Landscape (Market Outlook) ● We identified seven segments ○ Apps ○ Integration - ESB, APIs, Messaging, Workflows ○ Observability ○ Storage - RDBMS & NoSQL ○ Infrastructure - DevOps and Orchestration ○ Security ○ IoT ● We did an exercise to estimate their size and growth (CAGR)
  • 27. ObservabilityApps Integration AI & Analytics Infrastructure Security Middleware Landscape Application Platforms 4.5(7%) aPaas ESB Data Integration Analytics AI Storage Data Center Automation IoT IMG iPaas API iSaaS APM Log Analytics DevOps iDaaS Access Management Security Analytics PIM iDaaS Legend Growth>20% 10%<Growth <20% Growth<10% Increasing Growth Decreasing Growth Stream Processing CIAM 2B(25%) 1B(50%) 3.5(2%) 2.5(5%) 1B(50%) 1B(50%) 4B(25%) 3B(25%) 25(5%) 3B(5%) 40B(10%) 2.0(5%) 2B(34%) 0.5B (30%) 3B(5%) 1B (50%) 1B(30%) 1.5B(40%) 1.5B(20%) Container Orchestration
  • 29. Emerging Technologies (ET) Shapes the Landscape IoT Integration InfrastructureStorage Security AI&Analytics Observability Apps Sharing Economy 3D Printing Fintech ServiceMesh Serverless Blockchain Quantum Computing Chatbots AR/VR
  • 31. Understanding ETs: Carlota Perez Framework
  • 32. ServiceMesh Serverless BlockChain AR/VR Chatbots Quantum Computing 3DPrinting Sharing Economy Fintech IoT AI&Analytics Apps Security Integration Observability Infra&Cloud Storage Cost Saving Agility, & Productivity Automation Communication, Integration, and Trust Loose Coupling Between Entitle Lack of Programmers Privacy Government Policy and Law Complexity Security Monopoly/ Vendor Lock-in
  • 33. ServiceMesh Serverless BlockChain AR/VR Chatbots Quantum Computing 3DPrinting Sharing Economy Fintech IoT AI&Analytics Apps Security Integration Observability Infra&Cloud Storage Cost Saving Agility, & Productivity Automation Communication, Integration, and Trust Loose Coupling Between Entitle Lack of Programmers Privacy Government Policy and Law Complexity Security Monopoly/ Vendor-Lock-in Cost savings is the key driver! Everything drives integration