GDC Talk: Lifetime Value: The long tail of Mid-Core games
- 1. 1
Lifetime Value
The long tail of mid-core mobile games
1
S A N F R A N C I S CO 2 0 1 7 | # G D C 1 7
Tammy Levy
Director of Product
- 5. Publishing 5
Build Games That Can Grow
Goal: ROI Positive
Higher LTV
Strong Game Mechanics
Lower CPI
Approachable Art
Positive ROI
LTV > CPI
> =
- 6. Publishing
UA Costs by Theme and Genre
CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre
Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs
6
- 7. Publishing
UA Costs by Theme and Genre
CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre
Known IPs: Low CPIs Fantasy: Medium CPIs Sci-Fi: High CPIs
Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs
6
- 8. 7
Core design decisions drive core KPIs
(There are always exceptions)
Incremental / Clicker
AdCap
RTS
Star Squad
CCG & RPG
BattleHand
Arcade
Tiny Sea Adventure
Runner
Bullet Boy
KPIs by Genre
Genres have performance “bands”
- 9. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
8
- 10. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
8
- 11. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
8
- 12. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
8
- 19. Publishing 15
Elder Retention
Looking beyond d30
Tyrant Unleashed
Similar starting point (d30)
Players who retain after d30, stay for a long time
40% retained from d30 to d180
66%
84%
88%
79%
- 29. Publishing 22
Rate of Growth
Slope => How fast does LTV grow?
slope =
0.005
1. Linear Regression
2. Slope
or just use excel’s
slope formula
- 39. Publishing 31
Projecting LTVs
Spend patterns vary by game and genre
Highest spend on d0
Some growth after d80
Upfront Spend
Lowest spend on d0
Spend doubles from d0 to d90
Deep Monetization
- 48. Publishing
Higher price points offset fewer purchases
37
Target Different Player Types
Different approaches, similar lifts
Lower price points generate more purchases
- 55. Publishing 41
Long Term Retention
Look beyond d30
Key Takeaways
Projecting LTV
Use the spending curve for
more accurate LTVs
LTV Growth
LTV can accelerate after d30