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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - November 2022 .pdf

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Andrew Griffith
Andrew Griffith

The government continues to make progress on backlogs but the significant not-meeting service standards: temporary residence 44 percent, permanent residence 45 percent, citizenship 72 percent, visitor visas 70 percent in backlog (November 30 data). PRs: Decrease compared to October. YTD 412,000, 2021 same period 360,000. Of note, an ongoing and dramatic drop in TR2PR transitions, from 251,000 in 2021 to 172,000 in 2022 YTD. Quebec YTD 63,000, 2021 same period 44,000 (despite public debates). TRs/IMP: Flat compared to October. YTD 446,000, 2021 same period, 305,000. TRs/TFWP: Slight decrease compared to October. YTD 133,000, 2021 same period 105,000. Students: Flat compared to October. YTD 479,000, 2021 same period 415,000. Asylum claimants: Small increase compared to October. YTD 80,000, 2021 same period 19,000. Settlement Services (July): Decrease compared to June. YTD 1,031,000, 2021 same period 918,000. Citizenship: Increase compared to October. YTD 347,000, 2021 same period 115,000. Visitor Visas. Increase compared to October. YTD 1,097,000, 2021 same period 194,000.

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to November 2022 Working Draft - Key Slides 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
November 2022 Highlights • PRs: Admissions decrease from 33,510 in October to 25,925 in November. November Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP 5.6% (61.7%), Economic - Federal -67.5% (78.8%), Family -42.8% (32.8%), Refugees 3.4% (130.9%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. From 21,560 in April (time delays greater) to 17,937 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2020): -85.7% (-13.1%). • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From 9,000 in October (0 Arrima) to 10,498 in November (998 Arrima). November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 639.3% (-27.6%) • Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 614,314 in November (outside Canada) to 430,087 in December (seasonal). December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 24.7% (23.0%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline from 5,565 in October (some double counting) to 3,890 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): -89.6% (-45.9%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Stable from 55,520 in October to 53,545 in November. November year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 34.3% (11.5%), Canadian Interests: 108.0% (6.3%), Other IMP Participants 183.6% (4,853.3%), Not stated 243.3% (1,415.5%) • TRs/TFWP: Decline from 11,325 in October to 9,600 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers 0.0% (-44.6%), Agriculture 59.4% (21.7%) and Other LMIA 163.5% (129.6%). • Web “Get a work permit”: Decrease from 121,042 in November (outside Canada) to 106,622 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 47.1% (106.3%) • Students: Stable from 24,670 in October to 23,335 in November (seasonal). November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 11.4% (55.6%) • Applications: Increase from 69,932 in October to 78,353 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 62.8% (111.1%) • Web “Get a study permit”: Decrease from 68,520 in November (outside Canada) to 57,395 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -2.1% (11.3%) • Asylum Claimants: Increase from 9,400 in October (half at border) to 9,795 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 146.4% (642.0%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Increase from 3,951 in October to 3,791 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 348.6% (11,746.9%). Dramatic increase in numbers at “Other of fi ces” • Settlement Services: Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July (most recent data). July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%) • Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Decrease from 5,497 in November. (outside Canada) to 4,802 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -40.8% (-48.1%). In Canada: -40.8% (-42.4%) • Citizenship: Increase from 32,277 in October to 35,598 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 34.6% (868.7%) • Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%) • “Apply for citizenship”: Decrease from 22,203 in November (outside Canada) to 17,020 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -5.6% (-22.8%). In Canada: -7.2% (-12.1%) • Visitor Visas: Increase from 123,109 in October (Ukrainians less than 20% of total, declining portion) to 138,752 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 178.8% (2,396.0%). 3
Change Across Major Programs 2022 January-November Compared to full year 2018 Baseline 4 PR Applications PR Admissions-PNP PR Admissions-Fed TR2PR Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Asylum Claimants Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications-2021 New Citizens Settlement Services-2021 Visitor Visas -75% -31.25% 12.5% 56.25% 100% -17.9% -13.2% 96.5% -10.3% 30% 97.5% 45.7% 51.7% 71.2% 87.5% 28.4% 33.2% -43.9%
Permanent Residents 5
Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima 6
PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 7 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India
Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 8
Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 9
Admissions: PRs Canada Total November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -70% -35% 0% 35% 70% 105% 140% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 25.2% -5.8% 60.2% -14.3% 130.9% 32.8% 78.8% 61.7% 3.4% -42.8% -67.5% 5.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 10
Admissions: PNP Provinces November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 54.2% -5.2% -29.9% 8.6% 43.7% 33.3% -40.7% 69.8% -63.7% 109.5% 32.4% 72.4% -51.5% -13.6% 90.7% -23.4% 34.9% 51.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 11
Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 50% 200% 350% 500% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK 15.5% -6.2% 105.2% -12.2% 9.1% 42.2% -53.7% 4.2% -48.8% 82.2% -40% 494.3% 206.5% 61% -26.3% 154.8% 63.2% 11.6% 28% 81.3% -76.2% 35.8% 36.9% -7.5% -71.4% -0.4% 128.4% -57.7% -57.2% -69.2% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 12
Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-22 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 13
Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 204.9% 64.8% 24.6% 236.2% 313.3% 67.5% 205% -83.7% -84.5% -83.1% -80.8% -74.5% 219.7% -56.6% -96.2% -94.6% -92.4% -94.4% -96.6% 20.6% -92.8% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 14
Admissions: TRs to PRs November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -150% -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 136.5% 106.5% 260% 204.5% -46.9% -29.8% -53.2% -45.1% -88.2% -79.7% -92.2% -89.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 15
Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-22 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Airport Border Inland Other 16
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -1,250% 0% 1,250% 2,500% 3,750% 5,000% Airport Border Inland -54.7% -56.2% -50.1% -66.2% 1,655.1% 4,566.7% -79.7% 206% 150% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 17 Note: The “other claim of fi ce”, 10 or less until August 2022, has increased dramatically over the last three months, reaching 3,045 in November
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -750% 0% 750% 1,500% 2,250% 3,000% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA -78.4% 37.1% -8.7% -67.9% -62.1% -23.6% -93.6% -23.1% -5.3% -67% 116.7% 1,811.1% 2,033.3% 200% 444.4% 861.1% 500% 344.4% 1,360% 100% 62.5% 266% 137% 84.6% 96% 162.1% 42.9% 84.6% 215.1% 180% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 18
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci fi ed 19
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil -16% 51.9% 23.3% 3.4% 118.6% -1.8% -0.7% -2.1% -14.3% -19.4% 0% 66.6% 12.3% 40.8% 84.8% 35.6% 60.8% 52.7% -9.9% -14.4% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 20
Temporary Residents 21
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22 17,500 35,000 52,500 70,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 22
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total Year to Year Comparison (quarterly) -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 83.8% 16% -19.4% -19.8% -1% 27.6% 72.3% 5.4% -13.2% -19.9% -7% 39.3% 16.7% 15.8% 6.5% 59.7% 61.3% -22.2% -37.6% 146.6% 54.7% 57.6% 29.8% -54.4% -47.5% 2.6% 42.7% 10.6% 30.7% 1.5% IMP TFWP 23
Temporary Residents by Program Canada November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -90% -45% 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 58.8% 13.6% -26% 27.7% -17.7% 129.6% 21.7% -44.6% 6.3% 11.5% 163.5% 59.4% 0% 108% 34.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 24
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 25
IMP by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan -64.1% 16.1% -24.1% -69% -75.3% -35.2% 0.7% -24% -39.4% 129% 77.4% -31.8% -19.9% 140.7% 651.2% 260.7% -29.7% 32% 47.2% 15.8% 100% 28.2% 74.4% -8.5% 361.4% 43.5% 131.2% 24.1% 39% 138% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 26
IMP by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 28.2% 8.2% 16.2% 35.4% 44.3% 27.5% 70.3% 12.6% 25.8% 14.4% 11% 20.2% 7.2% 43.3% 67.2% 117.3% 88.2% 151.7% 161.5% 26.6% 126.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 27
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 28
TFWP by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 95.2% 36.5% -9.8% -59.1% 0.5% 40.1% 19.8% 64.7% 0.7% 17.2% 41.4% 85.7% 23.1% 100% -32.2% 144.4% 80.1% 36.8% -22.2% 77.8% 57.7% 200% 77.8% 12.5% 90.5% 317.5% 98.7% 74.2% 61.5% 75% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 29
TFWP by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 17.2% 2.8% 9.3% -2.6% 8% 76.9% 58.9% 67.1% 107.8% 175% 266.7% 47.5% 127.9% 26.2% 159% 256.7% 266.7% 200% 96.4% 97% 16.7% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 30
Work Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured 31
Work Permits—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia 211.4% 193% 144.2% 28.4% 284.3% 67.7% 40.3% 85.4% 26.7% 64.8% 80.9% 62.7% 115.6% 33.3% 137% 33% 47.6% 64.6% 26.5% 38.9% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 32
Study Permits 33
Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22 22,500 45,000 67,500 90,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 34
Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 35
Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 36
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 50.9% 29% 18.6% 73.2% -18.8% -22.3% 53% -37.5% -33.4% 61.4% 196.8% -5.8% 21.1% 98.8% -9.2% 72.5% -39.5% -18.7% 23.6% 56.8% 28.1% -5.8% -33.7% 50.5% -12.4% 3.5% -21% -1% -26.2% 2.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 37
Study Permit Holders by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 16.1% 28.6% 13.0% 6.4% 27.3% 45.7% 18.5% 30.9% 81.0% 80.9% 26.8% 85.1% 14.2% 54.8% 2.0% 36.1% 18.1% 1.9% 12.5% 10.3% 12.4% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 38
Study Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured 39
Study Permits—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan 36.4% -37.5% -30.5% -24.4% 65% -29.5% 104% 84% -18% -16.3% 49% -82.1% -2.3% -40.3% 23.9% -12.2% 68.9% 70.8% 6.7% -30.2% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 40
Settlement Services 41
Settlement—By Service—2018-22 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7 Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 42
Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation Needs, Assets & Referrals Employment Related Information & Orientation Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement -400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600% -35.5% -56.3% -22.3% -50.1% -21.4% -6.3% -10.5% -20.3% -56.3% -85.3% 1,544.4% 7.0% 267.9% 32.9% 20.7% 25.6% 40.4% 238.0% -64.3% 122.6% 8.6% 190.1% 10.9% 16.2% 17.5% 41.8% 171.6% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 43
Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 44
Settlement Services by Citizenship July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10, 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia 4.2% 57.7% -15.9% -11% 6.3% -25.6% -38.4% -21.8% -26.2% -18% 1.3% 286.3% 10.2% -2.7% 20.2% -11.8% 1.9% 13.3% 9.2% -12.2% 4.5% 281.6% 2.8% -7.1% 11.2% -9.4% -4.9% 23.9% 5.1% -15.3% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 45
Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -37.5% -25% -12.5% 0% 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC -11.8% -18.5% -10.9% -25.7% -13% -29.1% 7.5% 34.6% 42.4% 22.2% 0.8% 13.0% -1.3% 10.9% 16.6% 39.1% 15.2% 3.3% 9.5% 5.4% 5.5% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 46
Settlement Services—Web Interest 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5 2022-11 Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci fi ed 47
Settlement Services—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -60% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines -23.5% 5% -32.6% -37.2% -51.9% -33.1% -55.6% -56.9% -36.9% -59.1% -16% -59.5% -1.9% -41.5% -9.9% -38.7% -40.6% -59.3% -43.5% -54.7% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 48
Citizenship 49
Citizenship Applications—2018-21 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 50
New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 51
Citizenship by Region of Birth November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -200% 300% 800% 1,300% 1,800% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France -30.2% -46.5% -55.8% -22.8% -27.3% -42.4% -49.8% -52.4% 4.9% -9.8% 1,458.1% 1,779.5% 865.5% 60.6% 1,164.4% 1,111.7% 646.3% 888.4% 1,178.2% 458.3% 28.8% 104.2% 70.7% -35.3% 111% 27% 19.4% 26.5% 40.4% 16.9% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 52
Citizenship—Web Interest Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured 53
Citizenship—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh -44.6% -23.5% -26.8% 101.1% -18.5% -32% 68% -38.6% -42.2% -39.3% -9.8% -7.7% 16.6% 68.1% 28.9% 8.9% 65.1% -10.5% -32.3% -20% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 54
Approved Visitor Visas 55
Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 56 Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
Visitor Visas—By Source Country November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -4,500% 0% 4,500% 9,000% 13,500% 18,000% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -77.3% -73.4% -87.6% -78% -80.3% -90.5% -73.6% -83.9% -72.4% -92.7% -100% 3,730.6% 4,112.5% 16,386.5% 5,667.3% 3,586.2% 1,346.5% 6,989.5% 1,495.4% 2,398% -100% 256% 142.4% 344.9% 184.3% 199.9% 52.2% 520.8% 85.1% 118.6% November 2022-21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 57 Note: The most dramatic impact is the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel. As the visa data only includes the top 30 countries, some countries fall off some months (e.g., Russia). Visas for Ukraine are up by 5,480.4% compared to November 2021 and 25,418.8% compared to November 2022
Research Questions 58 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
Annex 59
Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 60
Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 61
Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 62

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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - November 2022 .pdf

  • 1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to November 2022 Working Draft - Key Slides 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
  • 2. Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
  • 3. November 2022 Highlights • PRs: Admissions decrease from 33,510 in October to 25,925 in November. November Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP 5.6% (61.7%), Economic - Federal -67.5% (78.8%), Family -42.8% (32.8%), Refugees 3.4% (130.9%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. From 21,560 in April (time delays greater) to 17,937 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2020): -85.7% (-13.1%). • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From 9,000 in October (0 Arrima) to 10,498 in November (998 Arrima). November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 639.3% (-27.6%) • Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 614,314 in November (outside Canada) to 430,087 in December (seasonal). December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 24.7% (23.0%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline from 5,565 in October (some double counting) to 3,890 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): -89.6% (-45.9%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Stable from 55,520 in October to 53,545 in November. November year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 34.3% (11.5%), Canadian Interests: 108.0% (6.3%), Other IMP Participants 183.6% (4,853.3%), Not stated 243.3% (1,415.5%) • TRs/TFWP: Decline from 11,325 in October to 9,600 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers 0.0% (-44.6%), Agriculture 59.4% (21.7%) and Other LMIA 163.5% (129.6%). • Web “Get a work permit”: Decrease from 121,042 in November (outside Canada) to 106,622 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 47.1% (106.3%) • Students: Stable from 24,670 in October to 23,335 in November (seasonal). November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 11.4% (55.6%) • Applications: Increase from 69,932 in October to 78,353 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 62.8% (111.1%) • Web “Get a study permit”: Decrease from 68,520 in November (outside Canada) to 57,395 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -2.1% (11.3%) • Asylum Claimants: Increase from 9,400 in October (half at border) to 9,795 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 146.4% (642.0%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Increase from 3,951 in October to 3,791 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 348.6% (11,746.9%). Dramatic increase in numbers at “Other of fi ces” • Settlement Services: Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July (most recent data). July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%) • Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Decrease from 5,497 in November. (outside Canada) to 4,802 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -40.8% (-48.1%). In Canada: -40.8% (-42.4%) • Citizenship: Increase from 32,277 in October to 35,598 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 34.6% (868.7%) • Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%) • “Apply for citizenship”: Decrease from 22,203 in November (outside Canada) to 17,020 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -5.6% (-22.8%). In Canada: -7.2% (-12.1%) • Visitor Visas: Increase from 123,109 in October (Ukrainians less than 20% of total, declining portion) to 138,752 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2020): 178.8% (2,396.0%). 3
  • 4. Change Across Major Programs 2022 January-November Compared to full year 2018 Baseline 4 PR Applications PR Admissions-PNP PR Admissions-Fed TR2PR Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Asylum Claimants Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications-2021 New Citizens Settlement Services-2021 Visitor Visas -75% -31.25% 12.5% 56.25% 100% -17.9% -13.2% 96.5% -10.3% 30% 97.5% 45.7% 51.7% 71.2% 87.5% 28.4% 33.2% -43.9%
  • 6. Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima 6
  • 7. PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 7 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India
  • 8. Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 8
  • 9. Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 9
  • 10. Admissions: PRs Canada Total November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -70% -35% 0% 35% 70% 105% 140% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 25.2% -5.8% 60.2% -14.3% 130.9% 32.8% 78.8% 61.7% 3.4% -42.8% -67.5% 5.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 10
  • 11. Admissions: PNP Provinces November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 54.2% -5.2% -29.9% 8.6% 43.7% 33.3% -40.7% 69.8% -63.7% 109.5% 32.4% 72.4% -51.5% -13.6% 90.7% -23.4% 34.9% 51.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 11
  • 12. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 50% 200% 350% 500% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK 15.5% -6.2% 105.2% -12.2% 9.1% 42.2% -53.7% 4.2% -48.8% 82.2% -40% 494.3% 206.5% 61% -26.3% 154.8% 63.2% 11.6% 28% 81.3% -76.2% 35.8% 36.9% -7.5% -71.4% -0.4% 128.4% -57.7% -57.2% -69.2% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 12
  • 13. Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-22 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 13
  • 14. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 204.9% 64.8% 24.6% 236.2% 313.3% 67.5% 205% -83.7% -84.5% -83.1% -80.8% -74.5% 219.7% -56.6% -96.2% -94.6% -92.4% -94.4% -96.6% 20.6% -92.8% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 14
  • 15. Admissions: TRs to PRs November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -150% -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 136.5% 106.5% 260% 204.5% -46.9% -29.8% -53.2% -45.1% -88.2% -79.7% -92.2% -89.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 15
  • 16. Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-22 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Airport Border Inland Other 16
  • 17. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -1,250% 0% 1,250% 2,500% 3,750% 5,000% Airport Border Inland -54.7% -56.2% -50.1% -66.2% 1,655.1% 4,566.7% -79.7% 206% 150% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 17 Note: The “other claim of fi ce”, 10 or less until August 2022, has increased dramatically over the last three months, reaching 3,045 in November
  • 18. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -750% 0% 750% 1,500% 2,250% 3,000% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA -78.4% 37.1% -8.7% -67.9% -62.1% -23.6% -93.6% -23.1% -5.3% -67% 116.7% 1,811.1% 2,033.3% 200% 444.4% 861.1% 500% 344.4% 1,360% 100% 62.5% 266% 137% 84.6% 96% 162.1% 42.9% 84.6% 215.1% 180% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 18
  • 19. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci fi ed 19
  • 20. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil -16% 51.9% 23.3% 3.4% 118.6% -1.8% -0.7% -2.1% -14.3% -19.4% 0% 66.6% 12.3% 40.8% 84.8% 35.6% 60.8% 52.7% -9.9% -14.4% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 20
  • 22. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22 17,500 35,000 52,500 70,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 22
  • 23. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total Year to Year Comparison (quarterly) -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 83.8% 16% -19.4% -19.8% -1% 27.6% 72.3% 5.4% -13.2% -19.9% -7% 39.3% 16.7% 15.8% 6.5% 59.7% 61.3% -22.2% -37.6% 146.6% 54.7% 57.6% 29.8% -54.4% -47.5% 2.6% 42.7% 10.6% 30.7% 1.5% IMP TFWP 23
  • 24. Temporary Residents by Program Canada November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -90% -45% 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 58.8% 13.6% -26% 27.7% -17.7% 129.6% 21.7% -44.6% 6.3% 11.5% 163.5% 59.4% 0% 108% 34.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 24
  • 25. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 25
  • 26. IMP by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan -64.1% 16.1% -24.1% -69% -75.3% -35.2% 0.7% -24% -39.4% 129% 77.4% -31.8% -19.9% 140.7% 651.2% 260.7% -29.7% 32% 47.2% 15.8% 100% 28.2% 74.4% -8.5% 361.4% 43.5% 131.2% 24.1% 39% 138% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 26
  • 27. IMP by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 28.2% 8.2% 16.2% 35.4% 44.3% 27.5% 70.3% 12.6% 25.8% 14.4% 11% 20.2% 7.2% 43.3% 67.2% 117.3% 88.2% 151.7% 161.5% 26.6% 126.6% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 27
  • 28. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 28
  • 29. TFWP by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 95.2% 36.5% -9.8% -59.1% 0.5% 40.1% 19.8% 64.7% 0.7% 17.2% 41.4% 85.7% 23.1% 100% -32.2% 144.4% 80.1% 36.8% -22.2% 77.8% 57.7% 200% 77.8% 12.5% 90.5% 317.5% 98.7% 74.2% 61.5% 75% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 29
  • 30. TFWP by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 17.2% 2.8% 9.3% -2.6% 8% 76.9% 58.9% 67.1% 107.8% 175% 266.7% 47.5% 127.9% 26.2% 159% 256.7% 266.7% 200% 96.4% 97% 16.7% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 30
  • 31. Work Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured 31
  • 32. Work Permits—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia 211.4% 193% 144.2% 28.4% 284.3% 67.7% 40.3% 85.4% 26.7% 64.8% 80.9% 62.7% 115.6% 33.3% 137% 33% 47.6% 64.6% 26.5% 38.9% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 32
  • 34. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22 22,500 45,000 67,500 90,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 34
  • 35. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 35
  • 36. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 36
  • 37. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 50.9% 29% 18.6% 73.2% -18.8% -22.3% 53% -37.5% -33.4% 61.4% 196.8% -5.8% 21.1% 98.8% -9.2% 72.5% -39.5% -18.7% 23.6% 56.8% 28.1% -5.8% -33.7% 50.5% -12.4% 3.5% -21% -1% -26.2% 2.3% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 37
  • 38. Study Permit Holders by Province November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 16.1% 28.6% 13.0% 6.4% 27.3% 45.7% 18.5% 30.9% 81.0% 80.9% 26.8% 85.1% 14.2% 54.8% 2.0% 36.1% 18.1% 1.9% 12.5% 10.3% 12.4% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 38
  • 39. Study Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured 39
  • 40. Study Permits—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan 36.4% -37.5% -30.5% -24.4% 65% -29.5% 104% 84% -18% -16.3% 49% -82.1% -2.3% -40.3% 23.9% -12.2% 68.9% 70.8% 6.7% -30.2% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 40
  • 42. Settlement—By Service—2018-22 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7 Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 42
  • 43. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation Needs, Assets & Referrals Employment Related Information & Orientation Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement -400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600% -35.5% -56.3% -22.3% -50.1% -21.4% -6.3% -10.5% -20.3% -56.3% -85.3% 1,544.4% 7.0% 267.9% 32.9% 20.7% 25.6% 40.4% 238.0% -64.3% 122.6% 8.6% 190.1% 10.9% 16.2% 17.5% 41.8% 171.6% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 43
  • 44. Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 44
  • 45. Settlement Services by Citizenship July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10, 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia 4.2% 57.7% -15.9% -11% 6.3% -25.6% -38.4% -21.8% -26.2% -18% 1.3% 286.3% 10.2% -2.7% 20.2% -11.8% 1.9% 13.3% 9.2% -12.2% 4.5% 281.6% 2.8% -7.1% 11.2% -9.4% -4.9% 23.9% 5.1% -15.3% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 45
  • 46. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -37.5% -25% -12.5% 0% 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC -11.8% -18.5% -10.9% -25.7% -13% -29.1% 7.5% 34.6% 42.4% 22.2% 0.8% 13.0% -1.3% 10.9% 16.6% 39.1% 15.2% 3.3% 9.5% 5.4% 5.5% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 46
  • 47. Settlement Services—Web Interest 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5 2022-11 Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci fi ed 47
  • 48. Settlement Services—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -60% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines -23.5% 5% -32.6% -37.2% -51.9% -33.1% -55.6% -56.9% -36.9% -59.1% -16% -59.5% -1.9% -41.5% -9.9% -38.7% -40.6% -59.3% -43.5% -54.7% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 48
  • 51. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 51
  • 52. Citizenship by Region of Birth November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -200% 300% 800% 1,300% 1,800% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France -30.2% -46.5% -55.8% -22.8% -27.3% -42.4% -49.8% -52.4% 4.9% -9.8% 1,458.1% 1,779.5% 865.5% 60.6% 1,164.4% 1,111.7% 646.3% 888.4% 1,178.2% 458.3% 28.8% 104.2% 70.7% -35.3% 111% 27% 19.4% 26.5% 40.4% 16.9% November 2022/21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 52
  • 53. Citizenship—Web Interest Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured 53
  • 54. Citizenship—Web Interest December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh -44.6% -23.5% -26.8% 101.1% -18.5% -32% 68% -38.6% -42.2% -39.3% -9.8% -7.7% 16.6% 68.1% 28.9% 8.9% 65.1% -10.5% -32.3% -20% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 54
  • 56. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 56 Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
  • 57. Visitor Visas—By Source Country November Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -4,500% 0% 4,500% 9,000% 13,500% 18,000% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -77.3% -73.4% -87.6% -78% -80.3% -90.5% -73.6% -83.9% -72.4% -92.7% -100% 3,730.6% 4,112.5% 16,386.5% 5,667.3% 3,586.2% 1,346.5% 6,989.5% 1,495.4% 2,398% -100% 256% 142.4% 344.9% 184.3% 199.9% 52.2% 520.8% 85.1% 118.6% November 2022-21 November 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 57 Note: The most dramatic impact is the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel. As the visa data only includes the top 30 countries, some countries fall off some months (e.g., Russia). Visas for Ukraine are up by 5,480.4% compared to November 2021 and 25,418.8% compared to November 2022
  • 58. Research Questions 58 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
  • 60. Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 60
  • 61. Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 61
  • 62. Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 62