Earlier this week Elon Musk spoke to the Financial Times at the
Future of the Car conference. The Chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX gave a few interesting quotes in this
exclusive interview.
The interview started with a bit of overlap with Elon Musk and
Co-Founder of Tesla JB Straubel both talking together. JB mentioned that it's "tougher now for EV startups
because what are they going to do that Tesla hasn't or won't do. What is their niche?"
Elon added "Companies are jumping in at the deep end, trying to make
a high volume vehicle without having ever made a vehicle before. Start small and make mistakes at a small
scale with a lot of reserve capital."
Elon was asked who he views as the most impressive EV startup and he
answered "Volkswagen is making the most progress aside from Tesla." He also noted that there will be some
strong EV companies coming out of China.
When asked about supply constraints, Elon said that he sees
constraints in lithium coming in about three years, in large part due to the difficulty of converting the
ore into battery-grade material.
Elon said that Tesla may have to get involved in mining/refining raw materials. When discussing supply constraints, Elon also
iterated that the 20 million vehicle target for 2030 is simply an aspiration; "We may achieve it, but we may
not."
Full Video Interview
When asked about the current situation in China, Elon stated that he
has had recent conversations with government officials. From these conversations he believes that it is
clear that the lockdowns are being lifted rapidly, adding "I would not expect this to be a significant issue
in the coming weeks." This statement is optimistic as the lockdowns have posed huge supply chain challenges
for Tesla and the broader economy.
When asked about demand, Elon said "now its demand is exceeding
production to a ridiculous degree. We’re probably gonna just stop taking orders for anything beyond a
certain period of time because some of that timing is like a year away.
Elon stated that there is some probability that Tesla would make a
car smaller than the Model 3. Tesla has alluded to increasing efficiency when discussing the Robotaxi, so it would make sense that it would be smaller than the Model 3.
This would be an interesting move for the automaker. Tesla has
previously alluded to the idea on their Q1 earnings call where they discussed the difficulty of setting
their prices so far out because they don't know what their future costs will be.
When asked about how long he would stay at Tesla, Elon responded:
"as long as I can be useful."
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Tesla recently hit the news for purchasing approximately $2M in LiDAR sensors from Luminar, one of Tesla’s long-term suppliers. You’ve probably seen photos of Tesla’s Semi and various Tesla models, including the Model 3 and Model Y sporting LIDAR equipment on the roof. These cars drive around with manufacturer plates scanning streets and highways.
However, many people confuse Tesla’s purpose in purchasing LiDAR equipment with using it for FSD versus testing. So, let’s look at what LiDAR is, and why Tesla uses it on its Fleet Validation Vehicles.
What is LiDAR?
LiDAR stands for Light Detecting and Ranging – essentially using lasers to measure distances. A laser pulse is sent out, and the time it takes to return is measured – providing extremely accurate distance measurements.
Some companies working on self-driving vehicles, including Waymo and BYD, use LiDAR as part of their self-driving suites, but Tesla is one of the few stand-outs that does not. Even Rimac’s “Verne” Robotaxi – which uses self-driving technology from Mobileye, also uses LiDAR.
While LiDAR can produce extremely accurate and high-quality 3D environments, it comes with its downsides as well. Not only is LiDAR costly and requires large gear strapped to a vehicle, but it also can not be used in bad weather and can have interference issues if there are other strong light sources present.
Why Does Tesla Use LiDAR?
A LiDAR rig mounted on a Tesla Semi for testing FSD.
Not a Tesla App
At Autonomy Day in 2019, Elon Musk mentioned that LiDAR isn’t the solution for self-driving cars – it's just a crutch. Thus, Tesla hasn’t used LiDAR for any production self-driving software.
Instead, Tesla uses it exactly how it's described – they use it to gather ground-truth data. This data is then used to feed Tesla’s Full Self Driving system – which helps validate its vision-only system's accuracy. LiDAR provides very accurate measurements to help ensure that FSD’s perception of space is accurate – and is only used by Tesla to ensure that its AI technology which is the brains of FSD is capable of accurately interpreting depth from just visual data.
While sources other than Bloomberg haven't confirmed this report, Bloomberg has a positive track record of reporting on financial decisions. We’ll be sure to update the article if there is confirmation on X from Elon Musk or another Tesla senior official.
Tesla’s stock has dropped nearly 8.5% over the day, ending back-to-back gains over the last two weeks. It closed yesterday at $ 241 after hitting a peak of $270 earlier in the day before the news broke.
Why the Delay?
The delay – of approximately two months – has been communicated internally, but not publicly announced just yet. Bloomberg goes on to mention that the design team was told to rework certain elements of the Cybercab, necessitating the delay.
If Bloomberg’s report is correct, it sounds like Tesla’s unveil event will be largely focused on showing off the vehicle, instead of demoing how it will work. Of course, it could still be both, but given past events, Tesla has always shown off the vehicle years before it hits production.
Rimac recently showed off their version of robotaxi vehicle named Verne, and surprisingly, it could almost pass for Tesla’s own robotaxi. A lot of design cues in Rimac’s version are elements we have already seen or expect to see in Tesla’s autonomous taxi.
A recent Tesla patent revealed that Tesla is incorporating a sanitation system into their robotaxi that will be responsible for analyzing and cleaning the vehicle’s interior, although the delay itself is likely tied more to a physical feature rather than software.
Another element we know almost nothing about is how Tesla plans to charge these robotic taxis. Will they rely on the existing charge port and adapt a solution like the robotic charging arm (video below) we saw almost eight years ago, or will wireless charging or a dock finally become realized?
While the delay for Tesla’s event appears to be related to the vehicle’s design itself and not further development of FSD, Tesla is wasting no time in getting FSD working for the upcoming vehicle. Model 3 vehicles have already been spotted with camera locations that resemble a robotaxi.
Is the Delay Accurate?
We expect that this delay might actually be true – Elon Musk usually takes to X within hours of such news breaking if it's false to refute it and hasn’t done so yet.
Tesla has delayed several of their events in the past, and a delay of a couple of months seems plausible. We should hear from Musk himself soon on whether this report is accurate.
TeslaFi logs your drives and charging sessions, letting you keep a log of your vehice's activity. We highly recommend checking them out if you use your car for business trips and would like to keep track of reimbursements, if you like to see how much you spend on charging or if you just love statistics. Visit their site and see everything they have to offer!
Tesla Android Project enables you to run Android apps in your Tesla. The platform is Open Source and you can deploy it on your own Raspberry Pi 4. Consider supporting the initiative by donating or purchasing the Compute Module 4 Bundle that delivers the best experience. Get $20 off by using the code: NotATeslaApp
The official Tesla app only notifies you if your car is broken into. By installing Sentry Pro on your phone, you will be notified for all Sentry Mode events. Stay connected and avoid potential surprises by receiving notifications. Stop constantly checking the cameras to ensure safety. Check only when necessary, save battery and get peace of mind. Get a 7 day free trial here!
Stay organized, connected, and stylish with Cyberbackpack — the #1 backpack, luggage & travel accessories for Tesla owners. We highly recommend checking them out if you commute or travel and would like a backpack or luggage that is sleek, secure and durable. View their products page and see everything they have to offer!
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