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After several of my existing worldbuilding projects hit dead ends, I needed a new setting to work on, so I thought I'd try a post-apocalyptic one. The problem is that I can't decide what kind of apocalypse I want.

That said, I do know I want the apocalypse to be scientifically plausible; Random apocalyptic magic just doesn't do it for me.

I also know I want the apocalypse to meet the following criteria:

  • It should be non-anthropogenic; Whilst themes of humankind destroying itself are fascinating, they aren't what I want, so the apocalypse should be a natural event.
  • It should be totally ecology-destroying; The apocalypse should render all macroscopic life extinct outside of artifically-regulated environments inside man-made shelters.
  • It should happen slowly enough that humans have time to build shelters, but quickly enough that the shelters will only have room for a small percentage of humanity.
  • It should not involve zombies in any way, even in the unlikely event that they can be made realistic.

Is there any scientifically plausible apocalypse scenario which meets those criteria? If so, what is it? If there are multiple such scenarios, please tell me them all, but if there are none, that is also an acceptable answer.

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  • $\begingroup$ Can you define what you mean by scientifically plausible? What's plausible to a 5 year old may not be plausible to experts in a particular field, of course not every expert in a field necessarily agrees with each other. Plausibility is a subjective response to how facts are presented, it is not a fundamental fact of the world you are building. $\endgroup$
    – sphennings
    Commented Jul 8 at 16:58
  • $\begingroup$ How much time do you want or need - 3 months, Half a year, a year, a few years. Because with an event of cataclysmic proportions - a few years IMO would still not be enough time to build the infrastructure needed to seal against whatever external Hazard(s) exist and house a significant population. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 8 at 20:41
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    $\begingroup$ It would be extremely difficult to eliminate all macroscopic life without sterilizing the planet. Macroscopic life lives in deep caves, around oceanic vents ~3 miles below the surface and Tardigrades are at 1mm macroscopic and are extremely resilient to pressure, temperature and radiation. $\endgroup$
    – Slarty
    Commented Jul 9 at 12:53
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    $\begingroup$ What gets extirpated in your apocalypse? Mankind? All primates? All mammals? All vertebrates? All macroscopic life above ground? $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 16:10
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    $\begingroup$ Moon Explosion? Niel Stephenson wrote a book on this, Seveneves, and it's quite good. $\endgroup$
    – Dragongeek
    Commented Jul 9 at 18:38

13 Answers 13

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Biological Processes

The Earth has had several nearly complete extinctions caused by a new species dramatically altering the planet's biochemistry. Sometimes, only microscopic lifeforms survived.

Regarding the degree of chemical change that can occur, check out the other changes (besides mass extinction) wrought by the sudden proliferation of oxygen-producing bacteria: Everything from the color of our rock formations, to the layers of our atmosphere, were fundamentally altered in a geologic moment.

A novel biochemical process could emerge at any time (but particularly during times of stress), that might prove very difficult if not impossible, to contain & constrain.

In 'The Andromeda Strain', astronauts introduce a foreign organism to Earth, but Earth is potentially exposed to foreign organisms on a regular basis. The strain in that story, dissolves plastic uncontrollably. While that alone, could wreck human civilization, similar organisms can also feed on blood, or metals. Consider the possibility of a higher order organism of this variety, with multiple expressions available depending on its present conditions; this, again, is well precedented in actual biology.

Were a foreign organism to survive space & entry into Earth's atmosphere, it might spread far & wide before we even knew to study it. By the time its earliest ecological effects were observed, the organism might already be so entrenched as to make eradication or sterilization, energy-prohibitive.

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  • $\begingroup$ Modern Humans have too many materials at our fingertips; so, even if a plastic hungry germ appeared and started to eat all of our Polyethylene based plastics, it would be unlikely that the same germ could also eat polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene, or polystyrene since these are all very molecularly different forms of plastic. There is also the option of chemical treatment. Maybe an iron hungry germ comes along and starts munching on our steel; so, we start adding lead, arsenic, or whatever else works to our alloys to repel or kill them. We already chemically treat wood for this exact reason $\endgroup$
    – Nosajimiki
    Commented Jul 11 at 21:32
  • $\begingroup$ As for terraforming novel processes like oxygen-producing bacteria: that takes millions of years; so, it's not really something that could force people underground in the scope of time that Human Civilizations have existed. $\endgroup$
    – Nosajimiki
    Commented Jul 11 at 21:35
  • $\begingroup$ @Nosajimiki It can take as little as a few thousand for extreme chemical changes, actually, & even less for flash-in-the-pan bloom\die-off events; the oxygen event is just one, of many many examples of ecological upheaval within a geologic eyeblink? $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 13 at 15:10
  • $\begingroup$ You also don't need to eat all the plastics; just a few that are used on industrial seals: Could we replace them? Yes. Could widespread seal failures release wastes we lack the energy to clean up? Also yes. Edit: That said, I think a terrestrial fungus surviving in the bloodstream, could kill off enough animal life to create a challengingly widespread loss of fauna. It's still not going to kill *everything* though (not even close) & in fact undersea animals might go largely unaffected unless extreme Ph or temps did them in)._ $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 13 at 15:12
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Rogue planet This one is a bit of a longer time scale but, you could have a scenario in which a rogue planet comes through the solar system and throws Earth into a different orbit - possibly an elliptical one. It's utterly unavoidable, would trash every ecosystem, and is predictable. Biggest issue I see here is that people would see it coming for years... but I think it's pretty easy to say that humans are just bad at thinking several generations ahead. Look at climate change...

Anyways, the idea being that the Earth acquires an elliptical orbit and thus periodically leaves the habitable zone. I feel that could lead to some interesting worldbuilding where you have factions trying to get power in the small span of time that's available before the next freeze. Depending on the shape of the orbit, you could also have Earth dip really close to the sun. But it would basically never be able to sustain life; people might have to use the brief window of time for farming in part, to restock on food before the next freeze. It could be fun to play around with.

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  • $\begingroup$ This is an interesting concept, race out after the thaw, build massive farms, people give up their regular jobs to be farmers and grow millions of kg of food, and store it, over maybe X years, before the next freeze that wipes the slates clean for X more years. Everyone back into the caves! $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 6:27
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    $\begingroup$ If it was a rouge black hole it would be much more difficult to predict that far ahead of time. If you only notice it by when the outer planets start doing weird things you only got a month or two to prepare. $\endgroup$
    – Seggan
    Commented Jul 9 at 12:48
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    $\begingroup$ "but I think it's pretty easy to say that humans are just bad at thinking several generations ahead." Actually, that could play into it. If people know that they're doomed anyways, they could end up wasting more resources or become more reckless in general, instead of preparing for doomsday ("we're all dead already anyways"). This could lead to societal shifts that have further long-term consequences once the apocalypse happened. It would influence what style of tech, literature, art, morals or philosophies survive into the apocalypse. For example: very dirty tech. $\endgroup$
    – Katai
    Commented Jul 9 at 13:29
  • $\begingroup$ @BaneStar007 Interesting concept, but to make it work you'd need to make things even more extreme. The frozen Earth would stay frozen if Earth only reentered the habitable zone (it would spend less time in the habitable zone because its orbital speed would be faster close to the Sun, and most of its time would be spent near its periapsis). You might be able to fix it by having the orbit dip inside the habitable zone as well (a freeze-bake cycle, I mean), but that makes the time problem even worse, unfortunately. It would also require multiple encounters to set up. Rogue planet, then Mars? $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 14:36
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    $\begingroup$ This would render the soil biologically inert which could make the soil incapable of sustaining most kinds of plant growth after the first few cycles. Eventually all growing would have to be done underground (or in very climate controlled green houses) where they can maintain a proper soil biome. $\endgroup$
    – Nosajimiki
    Commented Jul 9 at 17:15
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Giant asteroid

While a giant asteroid impact can be predicted far in advance, we do not necessarily have the technology to stop one. Certain kinds might be able to be redirected with a nuke, but most large asteroids are not a single rock. They are a collection of smaller asteroids held together by a weak gravitational force, in which case, even a nuke might blast away a part of it, but fail to redirect most of the mass, and might even spread it out in a way that is even more destructive.

If a large enough cluster asteroid were predicted to impact the Earth, there would be little we could do to stop it. The impact(s) would level and bury most above ground infrastructure and then a blot out the sun for years causing a global winter making everything other than indoor farms built to survive the massive impact event to die off. Escaping to space would be orders of magnitude more expensive than making self sustaining bunkers; so, most of your survivors would be rely on bunkers. These bunkers don't have to last as long as a nuclear fallout shelter. A few years is all it would take before people can go back topside, but even then, it would take generations to rebuild nature and civilization.

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    $\begingroup$ @controlgroup I don't see how the nuke idea isn't possible with modern technology. We already have unbelievably accurate guidance systems available to us, conceivably we could take the final stage from a trident 2 missile and attach it to an existing rocket. That gets us up to 10, 100kt warheads. The guidance would have to be automated, thankfully we've been making bombs and missiles with a <1m CEP for quite some time now. $\endgroup$
    – ChellCPlus
    Commented Jul 9 at 11:07
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    $\begingroup$ @ChellCPlus It's not detonating in the right spot that is hard, it's knowing the right spot to target. Our understanding of asteroid geology is not good enough to know for certain that an action will do more harm than good. If you scatter a giant cluster asteroid into 100 chunks and make 90 miss, the remaining 10 that do hit might have less total mass, but thier distribution could cause more total environmental damage than a single larger collision just like how 10 Trident missiles have a larger total area of effect than a single tzar bomb. $\endgroup$
    – Nosajimiki
    Commented Jul 9 at 17:09
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    $\begingroup$ @Nosajimiki and that's where I'd go with it too - nuclear bombs might not shatter it but they could create outgassing to push it off course substantially. Since space is big (as so many sources say), basically any thrust in any consistent direction would stop the impact or at least turn it into a very close encounter. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 10 at 0:49
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    $\begingroup$ This answer reminds me of a book series I've actually read. (*spoilers) It's set in the time before the Asteroid Apocalypse and involves seeing society crumble and how people cope with inevitable disaster. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Policeman#Background $\endgroup$
    – ryanyuyu
    Commented Jul 10 at 15:06
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    $\begingroup$ @JohnRanger Most of the elements in rock vaporize at about 300-350kj/mol. This works out to about 8000kj per kg of reaction mass or about 130,000 tons of vaporized rock for a 500kt Nuke This vaporized rock will outgas and push the asteroid. That said, while 130,000 tons of reaction mass sound like a lot at human scales, for a killer asteroid, this is just a gentle nudge. $\endgroup$
    – Nosajimiki
    Commented Jul 11 at 13:53
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Supervolcano

A supervolcano eruption blows so much ash into the atmosphere that it blocks out the sun on a global scale. It also spews out a lot of toxic gas, so the pollution alone could kill a lot of people and devastate local ecosystems. But the long-term effects can be even worse. The last supervolcano erruption triggerd an ice age lasting for over a thousand years.

With enough geological research, such an erruption might be predictable several years in advance.

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    $\begingroup$ this is the best answer. The Great Dying was just such an example. It occurred 250 million-ish years ago and was apocalyptic as one could ask for. $\endgroup$
    – Tony Ennis
    Commented Jul 9 at 18:55
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    $\begingroup$ If you go this route, make sure you get your supervolcano right. The deadliest ones aren't gigantic explosions (Mount St. Helens scaled up to a caldera 50 km across), but rather, massive lava flows (Kīlauea scaled up to cover half of Siberia). $\endgroup$
    – Mark
    Commented Jul 10 at 3:07
  • $\begingroup$ We are still notoriously bad at predicting eruptions sufficiently far in advance to meet the question criteria $\endgroup$
    – Separatrix
    Commented Jul 10 at 7:50
  • $\begingroup$ That last supervolcano did not cause the ice age, though it may have accelerated its onseet. $\endgroup$
    – toolforger
    Commented Jul 11 at 17:14
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    $\begingroup$ Supervolcano effects don't seem to last long. A year, maybe a dozen years, maybe a century in the extreme case you link to. Igneous provinces seem to have much more long-lasting effects; the Siberian Trapp seems to have emitted lots (and I mean LOTS) or fluroine to the atmosphere. $\endgroup$
    – toolforger
    Commented Jul 11 at 17:16
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A supernova exploding in close proximity of the Sun, or a gamma ray burst hitting our planet, would probably do.

It would strip the planet from the ozone layer and would cause a shower of UV radiation which would sterilize any surface above water and, with the huge amount of biomass decomposing as a result, would also cause eutrophic reactions in all the water bodies, resulting in any macro life being wiped out.

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    $\begingroup$ The trouble is that such an event would be difficult to predict. $\endgroup$
    – Monty Wild
    Commented Jul 9 at 3:06
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    $\begingroup$ You don't need to predict a gamma ray burst, you just get hit by one. The cascade ecosystem failure would take some time to unfold, during which people that were on the shaded side of the planet can stockpile resources in bunkers. $\endgroup$
    – abestrange
    Commented Jul 9 at 18:42
  • $\begingroup$ A powerful GRB would scorch one side of the planet, leaving the other untouched. They only last for about a minute. Subterranean life would be mostly untouched, and ocean life lower than 20 meters or so would be fine, but their food chain would be decimated. The supernova is a much better bet. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 19:27
  • $\begingroup$ @MontyWild Not really, before a star goes supernova it has a series of contractions/expansions due to its hydrogen getting exhausted. This can be detected by looking at its luminosity and it's how we actually know that Betelgeuse will "soon" become a supernova. $\endgroup$
    – Elerium115
    Commented Jul 11 at 10:18
  • $\begingroup$ @Elerium115 Can you put a date to Betelgeuse becoming a supernova? As accurately as, say, an asteroid impact? $\endgroup$
    – Monty Wild
    Commented Jul 11 at 15:26
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Rogue planet, take 2

I'm a fan of the magnetosphere collapse, but someone provided that one. There's a variation of the rogue planet scenario that wasn't covered. Let's take a Moon-sized rogue planet and put it in an elliptical orbit around Earth, with a perigee well within the Moon's orbit.

Two hundred foot tides would wash clean all life near the coasts. Every fault line would split open, filling the air with particulates, wiping out anything photosynthetic, coating the planet with a layer of ash and turning our oceans acidic.

This gives you a planning period of a few years, maybe a decade. Long enough for a major project for building underground bunkers, not long enough to get a meaningful percentage of us off of the planet. The rogue planet is big enough that most people would presume that it would either be a near miss or that no effort could possibly make a difference.

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Decline of magnetic field

Quoting from space.com:

Without the magnetic field, life on Earth as we know it would not be possible as it shields us all from the constant bombardment by charged particles emitted from the sun — the solar wind. (To learn what happens to a planet when it loses its magnetic field, you only need to look at Mars.)

It's scientific, somewhat plausible (as the Earth magnetic field is not stable), will be very easy to detect, and would be impossible to avoid.

The scientific community starts measuring weird localized declines in the magnetic field of Earth, and at first it's proposed this would mark the start of a planetary geomagnetic reversal, the first in modern history. As there already exists some evidence of the effects on the biosphere in the past, there is some time for some parts of societies to prepare.

The process accelerates unexpectedly, and voalá, Earth is Mars-like in a few years.

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    $\begingroup$ The Earth wouldn't have to lose its magnetic field on its own, either. A distant nova jet, or neutron starburst, or a disturbance of own sun, could each independently strip away our protective layers. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 18:09
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    $\begingroup$ Not fast enough. Geomagnetic reversals take hundreds to thousands of years, with the field weak or non-existent during the process. This is not associated with mass extinctions. $\endgroup$
    – dspeyer
    Commented Jul 11 at 6:22
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    $\begingroup$ Not fast enough II. Atmosphere loss from solar wind is a slow process, and even a weak magnetic field slows the process down even more. I can't find any solid estimates, my personal gut feeling is that it would happen at a geological time scale. $\endgroup$
    – toolforger
    Commented Jul 11 at 17:11
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    $\begingroup$ Mars doesn't have anywhere near as much gravity as Earth has to hold on to its atmosphere. Even if Earth lost its magnetic field entirely and permanently, It would take a VERY long time for Earth's atmosphere to be stripped away by the solar wind. Earth has experienced many, many magnetic field reversals already (this is one of the ways we use to determine dates of volcanic rocks lining suboceanic ridges) and obviously has not lost its atmosphere. Also, new atmosphere arrives on meteors every day. $\endgroup$
    – Some Guy
    Commented Jul 11 at 22:35
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Clathrate Gun going off.

There is a titanic layer of frozen methane underneath the oceans. It occasionally melts, for various reasons, releasing enough Greenhouse Gases to near instantly wreck the weather, end Ice Ages, cause massive temperature shifts and floods etc.

but the thing is, the Clathrate releases up to this point were absolutely tiny compared to what is possible.They only raised the global temperature by paltry 5-8*C, which on its own would be apocalyptic, but survivable if happened today. But there is no reason why the next Clathrate Gun cannot shoot 10x, or 100x more methane. That would temporarily turn parts of the Earth's atmosphere Venusian, melt all the glaciers, cause gargantuan global floods, desertify the continents and finally smother every creature that breathes. And all that would happen withing decades, if not faster. Just to illustrate what kind of fun that would be, imagine the absolute worst effects of Global Warming, but 10x worse, and as you battle those desperately, try to dig bunkers and hide, a cloud of methane blows over your city and everybody just suddenly starts swaying and mumbling as if drunk, then get sleepy, fall down and never wake up. Methane is odorless and invisible, so it would look like Death Itself just touched them.

Unless, of course, the city sized cloud of methane touches an open flame, and suddenly turns into a firestorm.

And the cool thing is, a big enough methane release would cause enough ocean warming to touch other deposits of clathrate, so it is quite possible for the problem to worsen itself exponentially until the deposits run out, and all the methane is released. 6.4 trillion tonnes of methane is trapped in deposits of methane clathrate on the deep ocean floor. That is over 9 times more that what was needed for the proposed Methane Apocalypse Hypothesis that caused the Permian Mass Extinction, and killed 95% of all life on the planet.

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    $\begingroup$ Any dense clouds of methane would pretty quickly oxidize; it isn't like lightning is rare. $\endgroup$
    – Yakk
    Commented Jul 10 at 21:40
  • $\begingroup$ Depends on what "pretty quickly" means here. Could be hours, could be weeks, and the latter means the methane has plenty of time to smother millions of people. Also, when the methane cloud ignites, it becomes just as dangerous, not just due tot he firestorm it would create, but the fact that it would suck away oxygen. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 11 at 8:28
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    $\begingroup$ The lower explosive limit for methane is 4.4%. The safe exposure limit for methane is somewhere upwards of 5%. There are ignition sources all over the place, so in practice, methane will always burn off before building to concentrations that will asphyxiate people. $\endgroup$
    – Mark
    Commented Jul 11 at 21:26
  • $\begingroup$ Methane is also lighter than air, so would tend to quickly rise away from the surface. $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 11 at 23:56
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The Oxygen Catastrophe

When the world was new there was no oxygen and basically all life was anaerobic. Then some microbes in the ocean started making oxygen. They grew in numbers enough to fill the entire atmosphere with oxygen. This killed almost all life on earth. It's unlikely that this would happen again, but it's not impossible. Some new microbe could poison the atmosphere with sulfur dioxide or cyanide or something. Consuming all the oxygen would take a lot longer than putting a significant amount of poison out there.

Here's the Wikipedia article

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  • $\begingroup$ Basically a subset of the answer I posted an hour earlier, but you included a reference, so... Bravo? $\endgroup$ Commented Jul 9 at 21:34
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I'm going with Team Celestial Impact. Firstly celestial impact is not an IF, but a WHEN question. Rather than an asteroid though,while it's not a unique idea, (Lucifer's Hammer), I suggest:

Death by Comet.

Comets can deliver a variety of effects beyond a direct impact that an asteroid doesn't. You can tailor the effects you want to manifest whatever outcome you need. It's possible that a comet can deliver a glancing blow or a more direct impact, essentially giving you a "dial" to scale the level of destruction you need. The main cometary body can be disrupted and travel in a "cloud" and pepper an entire hemisphere in mountain/hill/boulder/gravel/dust sized impactors all bringing varied effects, add to it the odd and unknown effects of the relatively dense gases or frothy foam that makes up the bulk of the mass/volume of the comet body.

The comet can be discovered in a variety of ways, long enough to give the population time to prepare.

Also, if it is a good and messy comet, it can leave behind a trail of debris that can deliver entertainment for centuries to come as Earth must travel through this trail every orbit. An admittedly controversial but still plausible theory that the Tunguska Event was a leftover fragment from Encke's Comet which birthed the Taurid Meteor shower from an outburst ~4000 years ago.

Just for a bit of gravy. Generally comets travel scary fast compared to typical asteroids.

Asteroids, the most common type of impactor, slam into the Earth at an average velocity of 18 km/s. Short-period comet impacts with the Earth are less common, but have higher impact velocities averaging 30 km/s. Even rarer are impacts from long-period comets at higher impact velocities that average 53 km/s.

https://www.lpi.usra.edu/exploration/training/illustrations/craterMechanics/ enter image description here

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Eukaryolysis

Thinking about an apocalypse that destroys all macroscopic life, one direct possibility is a collapse of the cooperation between cells that allows multi-celled organisms to exist. This is the premise of Greg Bear's Blood Music – it is caused by human intervention in that book, but could just as plausibly be a natural evolution.

The idea is that a cell becomes an autonomous agent, still functioning but no longer obeying the signals and programming that make it work for the good of the larger organism. This already happens, but the apocalyptic innovation would be if these rebel cells learned to plan and communicate, persuading other cells to join the rebellion. Animals, plants and fungi would dissolve into a common soup, from which lungs, leaves, blood vessels or whatever would organise themselves by negotiation. Just as in human revolutions, your armies of skin and immune cells won't defend you if they realize you're just using them as cannon fodder.

There are obviously lots of political, economic, biological and other objections to the idea, but by the same token, there are lots of interesting avenues of speculation, so it makes for a great SF premise if nothing else.


Bonus space apocalypse:

The Shadow at L1

As a variation on the standard asteroid apocalypse, a huge comet disintegrates at the inner Lagrange point between the Earth and the Sun, forming a reflective dust cloud that cools the Earth to dry-ice temperatures. That Lagrange point is unstable (a saddle rather than a well), so I'm not sure how plausible the capture would be, and the dust would dissipate over time (months? years?), but that may be good if a severe but reversible apocalypse serves the plot.

Diagram of Lagrange points

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The Cloud of Crap

The whole solar system passes through a big cloud of gas and various kinds of space dust. Maybe due to our solar system passing through the Milky Way's disk as it bobs above and below it over millennia. (Some evidence correlates Earth extinctions with passing through the Milky Way's disk.)

The dust cloud could be tiny grains of sand (micrometeorites) or it could be fist-sized rocks, or bigger chunks, or a mix. There might even be some large asteroids or a rogue planet or two mixed in somewhere. Regardless, the Earth and everything else in the solar system gets a bombardment by this stuff as the solar system is passing through it.

Since the path of light from the sun to us has to pass through this cloud, we overall lose direct solar radiation. (Maybe with Eclipse glasses you can even see the sun visibly brightening and darkening over a course of minutes as things pass in front of it.) Also, space junk rains down from space into Earth's atmosphere. Some chunks make pretty lights and burn up in the atmosphere if they're small enough, or else they make a big bang when they hit and kick up even more dust.

The cloud might be more or less continuous and homogenous, or it might instead be very uneven, with big open spaces within it and long gaps (days? years? decades?) in between its major effects on Earth or the rest of the solar system.

Ecological collapse could result from lack of sunlight, both due to blocked solar radiation as well as due to airborne dust from bigger chunks falling from the sky at random intervals and creating havoc. Impact-triggered volcanoes spewing toxic stuff into the air probably wouldn't help much. The lost sunlight might create the equivalent of Nuclear Winter on Earth, although the cloud might also contribute heat from impacts and also maybe volcanism to counterbalance the loss of sunlight, not to mention that it could warm the Earth by reflecting additional sunlight (or re-radiating heat) from the sun that would otherwise have missed the Earth entirely.

Also, the sun would be gaining mass from this. Depending on what chemicals the cloud is mostly composed of, who knows what effect that could have long term...? Other planets would be gaining mass too. Maybe the added mass and heat from impacts makes Mars habitable after all, eventually. (Melt the ice, add gasses to the atmosphere, etc.)

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Climate Change Irony

This probably won't get all macroscopic life, life is pretty resilient. But it could come close.

I'm going to say this isn't technically anthropogenic because it would be a result of people stopping their interference in the planet's biosphere.

The level of CO2 in our atmosphere has gone up and down over the millennia, but the general trend is down. Between organic matter getting trapped under sedimentary rock, and the whole pile of sea creatures that bond carbon into their shells so tightly that it pretty well won't get released until it's been compressed into limestone and subducted into the mantle, carbon gets sequestered, on average, faster than it gets released.

The estimated CO2 concentration in the pre-industrial era was 280ppm.

The level at which all "C3" type photosynthesizers cease to function and die is 220ppm.

Now that's not all plants. But it is the vast majority of them. C3 photosynthesis is so much more efficient that it has outcompeted C4 photosynthesis pretty much everywhere except deserts. (C4 has the advantage that it can store CO2, so in hot, dry, climates the plants can do their gas exchange at night to reduce water loss, and then photosynthesize during the day.)

C3 is also the type of nearly all the algae in the oceans which, despite what you may have heard about the rainforest, is what produces something like 2/3rds of our oxygen. Not to mention that practically all of the rainforest is going to die too...

So, the climate change activists get everything they could possibly dream of. Humanity stops all use of fossil fuels and, via a massive carbon sequestration effort, returns CO2 levels to their pre-industrial levels. "We're going to return the planet to Mother Nature" they say. (The deliberate carbon sequestration is optional, it'll get there eventually regardless, just a question of how far in the future you want the disaster to occur.)

Well, what Mother Nature had originally planned was another mass extinction, which she cheerfully carries out. The few who notice the upcoming problem are shouted down as "climate change deniers" and "barbarians" and "pro-oil" and "wanting to return to the dark ages of non-renewable energy".

Then, one day, most of the photosynthesis on the planet... stops. Hardly anybody notices. The leaves don't turn brown and fall off the plant or anything. They stay a nice, vibrant green! But that's because the chlorophyl is not being consumed. Which means no sugar production, which means the plant can't pump water up its stem. After a few days the leaves curl up from dehydration and the plants all die, still beautifully green.

There goes most of the planet's food production.

Meanwhile, oxygen production drops off drastically. Weeks to months later CO2 levels spike. Between lightning strikes igniting the vast swaths of dead, dehydrated vegetation, and normal animal respiration, the air starts to get a little... thick... The problem might correct itself in time, there are probably C3 plant seeds still surviving -- for now -- and the C4s will eventually move in if not, but that will take decades, if not centuries, and right now the atmosphere is rapidly becoming decidedly toxic to animal life. Oxygen concentrators and CO2 scrubbers become precious commodities. Depending on how bad the fires are, there might be enough smoke in the air to trigger off the next ice age, further slowing the plant recovery and making the surface even more hostile. In order to not wear breather masks 24/7, people with access to the necessary resources construct sealed shelters to live in. Those without... Struggle along with what life support equipment they can manage to produce with the resources they have... Most of them die, but there will probably be at least some nomads. The technology isn't too horribly complicated if you could find the raw resources for it before the collapse.

Like I said, this probably won't kill all macroscopic life, but depending on how you tune the ice-age, the wars over access to critical life-support supplies, the opportunistic wars over territory, etc. etc. you could certainly turn the surface into pretty much whatever degree of toxic wasteland you please. And, on top of that, it's the kind of apocalypse that will clear up on its own if the survivors can just hang on long enough. So you'll have all the politics of hope, and the people who prey upon the hope of others.

Left to nature it'll probably cycle for a half million years at least worth of burn-off, regrowth of surviving C3 plant types in the increased CO2, followed by another collapse and burn-off. If humanity can manage to free up some carbon during the regrowth cycle they could stop it. If they fall to internal squabbles and lose the technology and/or population level to dig up significant quantities of coal, etc. then the alternative is that it eventually stabilizes again at a much lower O2 level and much lower animal carrying capacity since the world will have only much slower-growing plants.

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