Centre for European Reform

NATO’s 75th anniversary summit sought to project unity and strength, but large challenges simmer under the surface. New insight by Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform Read here: https://buff.ly/4cI9Nny

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform joins Gideon Rachman on his podcast to discuss how easy it will be for Keir Starmer to reset relations with the EU and what impact will political disarray in France have on leadership within the bloc?

CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: What's happening in France and what it means for Europe, 12 July 2024 In our latest Centre for European podcast, director Charles Grant is joined by the Economist's Paris Bureau Chief Sophie Pedder. She is the author of 'Revolution Française: Emmanuel Macron and the Quest to Reinvent a Nation'. Charles and Sophie discuss the fallout from the parliamentary elections in France. They outline possible outcomes and their likelihoods, debate whether the result weakens President Macron's position in Europe and look forward to the next French Presidential elections, in 2027. https://pod.fo/e/251f60

CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: What the Labour landslide means for UK-EU relations, 10 July 2024 In this week's Centre for European Reform podcast Charles Grant, director of the CER, and Neil Kinnock, leader of the Labour party 1983 - 1992, European commissioner 1995 - 2004 and member of the house of Lords since 2005, join podcast host, Octavia Hughes, to discuss what Labour's landslide victory will mean for UK-EU relations. They debate whether the success of Reform UK will dampen Keir Starmer's ambitions for Europe, make suggestions to improve security and trade ties and explain the importance of the current geopolitical context. https://pod.fo/e/2511a9

New Centre for European Reform/ Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) UK & Ireland paper: "Navigating the storm? The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0" by Luigi Scazzieri https://buff.ly/45Wghws • Donald Trump could be the next US president. A second Trump presidency would lead to extensive transatlantic turbulence. Trump’s view of NATO as a protection racket, his scepticism about support for Ukraine and his trade protectionism are well known. But Trump is likely to be more familiar with the levers of power and to be less restrained in a second term than he was in his first. Meanwhile, Russia’s war on Ukraine means that the stakes for European security are much higher than before. • Many policy-makers in the EU and the UK think that it will be possible to manage Trump. They hope that his rhetoric on NATO will not be backed up by concrete disruptive action, and that they will be able to placate him through rising defence spending. Similarly, they hope that Trump’s Ukraine policy may not turn out to be a radical departure from Biden’s, and that it may be possible to persuade him to continue supporting Kyiv. • While hoping for the best, EU and UK policy-makers are also hedging against disruption. Defence spending is rising, and both the EU and the UK have been increasing their support for Ukraine. European policy-makers are discussing how to strengthen NATO’s European pillar and how to give the EU a greater role in buttressing the European defence industry. • However, Europeans will continue to rely on the US for deterring Russia for a long time. Meanwhile, supporting Ukraine with less US involvement would be very challenging, not least because a reduction in American support would embolden European sceptics of further assistance. Crafting a common economic response to Trump’s policies also won’t be easy – many countries will be wary of picking fights with Washington if they think Trump will no longer defend them. • Trump’s policies on NATO, Ukraine and trade will create pressure for the UK and its European partners to work more closely together. Bilateral ties between the UK and individual EU members like Germany are likely to be strengthened. A Trump victory is also likely to push the UK and the EU to deepen security and defence co-operation. • A Trump Presidency might also facilitate a broader UK-EU rapprochement, particularly if Britain feels isolated and squeezed by the economic hit from a Trump trade war and the EU’s own response to it. Many in the EU are also likely to think that Britain should be kept as close as possible. • To navigate a Trump presidency, the UK and its European partners will need to be creative and pragmatic in finding new ways to work together, especially if there are deep divisions in NATO and the EU.

In an open letter to Keir Starmer, Charles Grant offers ten suggestions on how the Labour government can improve the UK-EU relationship. https://buff.ly/460e579

📆 Join us for our webinar on 'What the UK election results mean for Europe' with Catherine Barnard, Professor of European Union & Labour Law, University of Cambridge David Lidington, Chair, Royal United Services Institute for Defence & Security Studies & former UK Minister of State for Europe Emma Reynolds, Member of Parliament for Wycombe & former UK Shadow Europe Minister 10 July 2024 - 14.30-16.00 (BST) Email events@cer.eu for registration

Under a Labour government, the UK debate about dynamic alignment with EU rules is likely to be reopened. How does dynamic alignment work in practice? 🆕 insight by Aslak Berg, research fellow, CER https://buff.ly/3VPfOYk

Whoever wins the election will have to think about reshaping the UK’s relationship with the #EU, in the interests of the UK’s prosperity and security. #UKelection #LabourParty Here are some ideas for doing it. 🆕 insight by Aslak Berg, Ian Bond, Zach Meyers and Luigi Scazzieri https://buff.ly/3W3IZYS

The relationship between China and the EU might be increasingly complex. But where the space for climate co-operation is closing, there is space to advance through climate competition. New policy brief by Christina K., Clara Marina O’Donnell fellow (2023-24). https://buff.ly/4eDA4EZ