I read on https://gizmodo.com/spacex-starlink-satellites-dodge-137-objects-daily-1850616506 by Passant Rabie:
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A new report revealed that Starlink satellites had to make 25,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the six-month period between December 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023, Space.com first reported.
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SpaceX had previously stated that it would move its Starlink satellites if there is a greater than 1 in 100,000 chance of a collision with a piece of orbital debris or another satellite.
Does that mean that with the current fleet of Starlink satellites and the current threshold to move a satellite based on the chance of a collision, SpaceX expects 1 collision every 2 years? That seems a bit high to me, not to mention that the fleet is expected to increase tenfold (~4k->~40k). Or are some of those numbers off or outdated, or is my understanding incorrect?