Did black people commit 18 times more murders per capita than white people in 2021?

Question

The picture below is posted on 4chan.org (a NSFW website) and seems to claim that in 2021, black people committed 18 times more murders per capita than White people?

ages	white male Murderers per 100,000	hispanic male Murderers per 100,000	black male Murderers per 100,000	black female Murderers per 100,000	hispanic female Murderers per 100,000	white female Murderers per 100,000
15-64	5.2	17.4	95.5	8.7	3.6	1.1
5-14	0.2	0.8	4.9
15-24	8.3	28.1	207.4	16.9	4.8	1.4
25-34	7.6	23.5	119.5	13.3	5.7	1.9
35-64	3.6	9.4	38.4	3.9	2.2	0.8
65+	0.6	1.2	3.8	0.4	0.3	0.1
All	3.5	11.9	64.4	5.8	2.4	0.7
Projected Lifetime	274	819	4508	423	174	59

Any truth to that?

I couldn't find raw data for 2021 myself, but found data for 2019 at Arrests by Race and Ethnicity, 2019 (FBI.gov):

{
    "Offense charged": "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter",
    "Total": "7,964",
    "White": "3,650",
    "Black or African American": "4,078",
    "American Indian or Alaska Native": "125",
    "Asian": "83",
    "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander": "28",
    "Total.1": 100.0,
    "White.1": 45.8,
    "Black or African American.1": 51.2,
    "American Indian or Alaska Native.1": 1.6,
    "Asian.1": 1.0,
    "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander.1": 0.4,
    "Total2": "6,474",
    "Hispanic or Latino": "1,341",
    "Not Hispanic or Latino": "5,133",
    "Total.2": 100.0,
    "Hispanic or Latino.1": 20.7,
    "Not Hispanic or Latino.1": 79.3
}

and.. if there are 224,789,109 "white people" and 41,393,012 "Black or African American" people in USA at 2019 (see Neilsberg Research then.. (Edit: removed some very wrong math here, sorry about that)

blackMurders = 4078;
blackPopulation = 41393012;
whiteMurders = 3650;
whitePopulation = 224789109;
murderPerCapitaWhite = (whiteMurders / whitePopulation) * 100000; // 1.6237441467860438 
murderPerCapitaBlack = (blackMurders / blackPopulation) * 100000; // 9.851904471218475 

murderPerCapitaBlack / murderPerCapitaWhite; // 6.067399528872102 

seemingly 6x in 2019? (entirely possible that I messed up the math, again, sorry)

Did black people commit 18 times more murders per capita than white people in 2021?

Answer 1

So here's the deal:

Yes, your calculation is correct; blacks kill 6 times as whites, per capita. But black women don't kill as much as whites. Whites kill roughly 5 per 100k, whereas black women don't kill 6 times of that (30), instead, only 20, so that pushes the black-male-offender per-capita count higher than 6, to almost 10.

So yeah, the 4chan dude probably just exaggerated the numbers; I've checked the FBI NIBRS data for 2019 and they're pretty consistent: blacks kill some 6 times per capita.

In fact, when it comes to interracial homocide, in an hour long interaction between a black and a white, the black is twice as likely to kill the other than the white. Pretty consistent throughout the decades-spanning data.

In an hour-long encounter/interaction between two blacks, it's 4.5 times as likely to become deadly as it is with white-white encounter.

FBI (https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls) doesn't publish proper data breakdown by gender AND race; here's where it does exist though: https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/htius.pdf.

Murderers by race AND gender (18 to 24 age range):

• White women: 2 per 100k
• White men: 20 per 100k
• Black women: 20 per 100k (10)
• Black men: 200 per 100k

So it's 10 times: black men are 10 times as murderous per capita as white men, not 20 or 18. Black women's murders per capita have been declining, pushing black men's per capita murder counts higher; it can't go higher than 12 given blacks in general are 6 times as murderous as whites, even if all black women became pacifists, lol. That said, in the 1990s, blacks' per capita homicide counts were more like 10 times, but have fallen to 6 times as whites, today.