If you are attempting to disarm someone, you are not trying to hurt them.
One approach is noting that being disarmed is a lot like being defeated. So when a player tries to do something that would defeat the foe if it succeeded, try this simple mechanic:
First, if the action is telegraphed (the foe saw the player do it in the past), the attack has automatic disadvantage.
Second, roll to hit as normal. If you hit, roll damage as normal. Then double the damage.
Do not apply this damage.
If the damage total exceeds the target's current HP, the "effectively defeated" effect occurs.
If it does not exceed the target's current HP, the attempt fails. Take the original damage (not doubled) and half it. You deal that much damage in your failed attempt. (This mainly exists to prevent this from slowing gameplay too much. Half damage is a huge penalty.)
"Effectively defeated" includes being disarmed, having your armor and shield ruined or damaged, knocking you off a ledge, etc. As a typical consequence, the very least, the target withdraw from combat then spend an action to recover from it, granting advantage until their turn and having to spend an action to recover from it, granting advantage until their turn and suffering an ongoing mechanical penalty afterwards (reduced damage die, etc), or some other serious penalty.
This x2 multilpier on pseudo-damage should stack with crits.
If the character has multiple attacks in one turn, allow them to use them all in the attempt to disarm (this helps prevent clerics/paladins from being head-and-shoulders better at disarming (or similar actions like this) than fighters). You might want to ask the player how many attacks they want to spend on the special attack.
The effect of this is that a foe that is nearly defeated can be defeated faster, but doing it on a non-defeated foe is inefficient. A character who knows they can reliably deal enough damage to half-kill some kind of foe could use this to very quickly cripple large numbers of them: take someone who deals 5-10 damage per hit, surrounded by 5 ~10 HP guards, who gets 5 attacks (4+bonus).
With those 5 attacks he could reliably disarm all of them (I wouldn't provide the telegraph penalty when it is all done in one round), then move away from the now far less dangerous guards without provoking meaningful OAs.
It both creates cool fiction, and isn't over powered. Using it on a 400 HP death knight isn't going to go well, unless you have figured out a way to deal 200+ damage in a round, in which case more power to you!