How does one value a 3mo spread spread in the far out future from present if fomc meeting schedule is only published for one year, and even with fomc's dot plot, it just shows the median expectation of rates but not changes within the year far out. So for example, current front month future is June 2024 (SOFR future is backward looking product), how does one value a 3mo spread such as March 2026 versus June 2026 if so little information is unknown? What are some leading indicators that would be useful here for price movement?
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1$\begingroup$ FOMC meeting schedule and the FOMC dot plots are not the main indicator of SOFR prices. They might influence prices but don't dictate them. Supply and demand dictate the prices and the prices of the spreads are derived by going to, say, the CME SOFR futures market and observing what prices people are willing to sell or pay for those spreads directly. $\endgroup$– Attack68 ♦Commented Jul 7 at 15:02
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