Alice is guaranteed to win
Because of a basic symmetry of the game.
Alice starts on an even number, if it is a winning move to halve that number, Alice takes it. If it is not a winning move to halve that number, Alice subtracts instead, and Bob must now halve or subtract. If Bob halves, we know that is a losing move, because it will be the same as if Alice halved, so Bob must subtract. Alice now has priority on an even number again, and because there exists a number less than the starting point where halving it is a winning move, she repeats until she wins.
This is reasoning from trying to work it out mathematically, I came up with a better way.
Safest numbers for your opponent to have a turn on are 3, 7, 15, 31, etc., effectively 2f(x-1)+1, because you can always make the move that they don't to keep yourself on the straight path to victory. Unfortunately, the number chosen does not lie particularly near to this pattern. 9 is safe, because halving lets you half again to 3, and subtracting lets you subtract again to 7, which are previously identified as safe. This makes 19, 39, 79, etc., also safe, using the same formula as before. 11 is safe, because it also quarters to 3, and subtracts to 9. This means 23, 47, 95 etc., are safe.
None of these expansions get us particularly close to the starting point yet, but I'm pretty sure I'm on the right path.