All Questions
Tagged with presidential-election polling
12
questions
1
vote
0
answers
59
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any USA polling on what if presidential/congressional election were ranked-choice voting
A lot of people who are dissatisfied with the American political system have suggested ranked-choice voting.
I cannot find any polling where the people are asked, "What if the presidential or ...
- 111
24
votes
4
answers
4k
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What's the point of US presidential polls that poll people in general rather than dividing them by state?
I went on to this website
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
to see recent presidential polls because I am interested in having an idea of who would win the ...
- 1,279
3
votes
1
answer
254
views
What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?
Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset of voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
- 26k
-4
votes
2
answers
211
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How should I interpret the US election poll results conducted on Twitter? They seem to contradict polls conducted elsewhere
On a popular US poll twitter account, I found an interesting phenomenon. (Similar thing also has been happening on other US poll twitter accounts.)
Most of the polls it has (re)tweeted are favoring ...
- 1,264
25
votes
2
answers
4k
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In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: "the closest races" and "close to the tipping point"?
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
- 1,264
20
votes
4
answers
10k
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Was the November 2019 polling about the Democratic Party's lead over Trump trustworthy?
In November 2019, many polls (such as this ABC/Washington Post poll from November 5th) claimed that the Democratic candidates had double-digit leads over Trump. In the 2016 elections, however, polls ...
- 623
6
votes
1
answer
538
views
Why are two trend-lines shown with Biden's poll results?
Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically, Biden's poll numbers seem to have two trend-lines instead of one. One hovers ...
- 163
7
votes
1
answer
454
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How does Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with "head-snapping" speed?
The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues:
"Let us reunite as family. Let us ...
- 17k
10
votes
1
answer
527
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Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting
I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
- 203
2
votes
2
answers
626
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Where can I do my own analysis of exit poll data?
All the media sites do their own rollups of the exit poll data, but the dimensions they pick are static. Is there any site where I can pivot on my own sets of dimensions? E.g. I see married men went ...
- 129
22
votes
2
answers
1k
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Have pollsters examined the possibility of a "shy Tory factor" in the 2016 presidential election?
Most of the polling for the 2016 US presidential election have been favourable to Hillary Clinton. One of the biggest questions I have right now is whether the polling is accurate. In particular, ...
- 13.5k
2
votes
1
answer
261
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FiveThirtyEight: Polls Only vs Now Cast
Here is how FiveThirtyEight reports their forecast probabilities.
FiveThirtyEight Clinton Trump
--------------- ------- -----
Polls Only 51.0 49.0
Now Cast 56.8 ...
- 4,190