Question #1:
How critical will be Samarium Cobalt Magnets to the US war effort in case of a war in Taiwan strait with China?
Samarium Cobalt Magnets with their higher temperature tolerances are an important component of modern missiles, aircraft, smart bombs and other U.S Defense Dept. weapon systems. Very critical.
Question #2:
The underlying question is how exposed is the US military to the ongoing Chinese boycott of exporting rare earth metals.
Short Answer:
The U.S. military is minimally exposed to shortages due to a Chinese boycott of this important components. The U.S. total economy is more exposed in the short term as it stands up and shifts to alternate supply chain sources. The U.S. Military has contingencies in place to mitigate the short term market disruptions. The U.S. Government and it's allies have contingencies to eliminate the long term market distruptions.
In General using commodities as weapons isn't as effective against militaries. It's a little more effective against economies, but is a two sided sword.
#1 The price shocks from such efforts tend to curtail the civil use and free up supplies which could be used by the military. The Military needs amounts to a small fraction of the overall economy.
#2 Alternative global suppliers are incentivized to ramp up production
#3 Alternate domestic suppliers ramping up production becomes a new national priority
#4 The collective embargo boosts collaboration among allies
#5 The blow back from such actions has been extreme for China, which signaled to their largest trade partners they were unreliable suppliers.
Answer:
Rare Earth Metals aren't Rare. Many countries including the United States have them. China's "monopoly" in the production of Rare earth metals is not based on a unique access to the ores, rather it's based upon the price point of their end product; and their domestic willingness to accept the ecological cost of participating in this market on a large scale. Thus the ongoing boycott of these materials creates short term supply shortages but not long term issues as the supply chain naturally adjusts.
The U.S. economy consumed about 450 tons of Samarium Cobalt in 2022.
North America Samarium Cobalt Magnets Market:
The North America samarium cobalt magnets market size reached 454.1 Tons in 2022. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach 525.6 Tons by 2028,
U.S. Defense accounts for about five percent of US consumption or 23 tons per year. US government stock piles of samarium cobalt as of 2022 were 50 tons. However at 5% of domestic consumption U.S. Defense Dept. needs could easily be made up by alternative domestic or international suppliers.
The US was the #1 producer of rare earth metals for decades decades ago. The U.S. never ran out of rare earth metals in 2003 U.S. shut down domestic production because companies preferred to purchase from China due to costs. Efforts to restore U.S. domestic production or rare earth metals began in 2012, but faced fiscal limitations due to continued low cost Chinese supplies. In 2020 U.S production of REM amounted to about 16% of global supply. As of 2022 the U.S Defense Department began funding the expansion U.S. domestic production of Rare Earth Metals.
These efforts to increase domestic production are also occurring around the world.
