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According to an MIT political scientist, the current clashes in Sudan are an example of failed coup-proofing, meaning that multiple centres of military power were created in order to create a [military] "balance of powers" between them, and thus dissuade either from overthrowing the supreme leader, but this strategy failed in Sudan:

One thing that a lot of autocrats do to prevent armed factions of the state from launching coups is to coup-proof, which means creating rival centers of power by creating an internal security apparatus. Sudan has a conventional army, the Sudanese Armed Forces, or saf, which is one of the belligerents now. Back in the early two-thousands, around the war in Darfur, Bashir decided to rely on janjaweed or Arab militias to engage in scorched-earth tactics and genocide. [...]

After that, he incorporated some of these janjaweed militias into an official paramilitary and into the Sudanese state, and allowed them to grow. He allowed them to enrich themselves, and engaged in and actually passed through the parliament a decree allowing the Rapid Support Forces, the successors to the janjaweed, to be on an equal institutional footing as the Army. [..] By 2017, through an act of parliament, the leader of the R.S.F. responded directly to the head of state. Bashir did this to coup-proof, to insure that if the SAF ever got too rebellious, or too powerful, he would have a counterweight. And, in fact, for some time, Bashir called Hamdan “my protector.”

Unfortunately for him, the coup happened anyway. [...] And, in October, 2021, when Burhan [head of SAF] and Hemedti no longer had shared interests—the civilian forces were out, Bashir was out—the split between them started to emerge.

Now examples of this strategy are certainly found elsewhere, e.g. Saudi Arabia also has two ground armies (and a paramilitary), with analyses suggesting such coup-proofing role[s] etc. However, this strategy seems to mostly work [at preserving the regime], rather than not, at least judging by Saudi Arabia (or even Russia, with Rosgvardia by some Western analyses.) A somewhat dated (1999) article discusses Iraq [under Saddam] and Syria as well, as examples of coup-proofing by parallel armed forces. In hindsight coup-proofing [this way] worked in Syria too, despite the civil war. And also worked in Iraq--only an external invasion removed Saddam. So, are there other [contemporary] examples where such a strategy failed, like [it seems to have] in Sudan?

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  • With some time to add some research this is an evident frame challenge. The Janjaweed/RSF was not created for coup proofing, but to carry out the dirty work. Repressions in rebel areas that would expose the generals to human rights allegations, that is why Omar al Bashir was indicted by the court in The Hague, but not high ranks in the army. The cause of today conflict is the control over the gold mines. When the production is not enough for an entire army where corruption is rife internal conflicts can happen.
    – FluidCode
    Commented Apr 25, 2023 at 9:03
  • As the above comment shows, the problem is not going to be finding coup attempts, but finding authoritative information on the reason for the creation of military and paramilitary branches. There's also the issue that an organisation may be created for one reason but later persist for other reasons. One possible historical example is the Janissaries in the Ottoman empire, who formed an elite corps loyal to the Sultan but nonetheless were involved in various coups and revolts. (I'm sure the Roman Empire also had similar situations.)
    – Stuart F
    Commented Apr 25, 2023 at 9:58
  • (half-facetious, half-serious): Maybe it, after a fashion, worked as coup proofing. Consider that one military faction wants to depose the government. And the other faction resisted it. If there was only one faction and it wanted to take over, maybe the government would have been kicked out already? Plenty of coups happen from the main military. Commented Apr 25, 2023 at 19:22
  • FWIW, the leading recent academic treatment of this issue is the book Erica De Bruin, 'How to Prevent Coups d’état: Counterbalancing and Regime Survival" (2020) jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctvv413v6 Her bottom line is that this approach doesn't prevent coups, but does make coup attempts more deadly and more likely to escalate into full fledged civil wars.
    – ohwilleke
    Commented Apr 25, 2023 at 22:18
  • @ohwilleke: Intersting, I'd have to read that. But the conclusion of prior research mostly leaned in the opposite direction. Böhmelt & Pilster, 2015 ; Powell, 2012 ; Roessler, 2011 The last two are fairly cited. Commented Apr 28, 2023 at 17:02

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